Predicting goal achievement during stroke rehabilitation for Medicare beneficiaries.

PURPOSE: Few studies have investigated the ability of treatment teams to predict functional improvement and whether an association between predicted goals and discharge function in patients with stroke exists. This study investigated goal prediction during stroke rehabilitation delivered in inpatient rehabilitation facilities (IRF) and the factors associated with goal prediction.

METHODS: A serial, cross-sectional design analyzing the Medicare IRF Patient Assessment Instrument dataset. The sample included 179 479 admissions for stroke aged over 65 years in 968 IRFs. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) controlled for facility cluster effects were used for analysis of time trends for length of stay (LOS), predicted Functional Independence Measure (FIM) scores, discharge FIM scores and predicted-discharge difference FIM scores (goal FIM scores minus discharge FIM scores). GEE models were employed to determine the correlation between predicted FIM and discharge FIM scores and factors associated with goal achievement.

RESULTS: Mean LOS, predicted FIM scores and discharge FIM scores decreased 1.8 d, 2.2 points and 3.6 points, respectively, while predicted-discharge difference FIM scores increased 1.3 points. Discharge goals were not met 78.9% of the time. After controlling for patient characteristics, each predicted FIM point was associated with 0.6 discharge FIM points (p < 0.0001). Factors associated with not meeting or exceeding goals were: age (odds ratio; OR = 0.997), African Americans (OR = 0.905), number of comorbidities (OR = 0.970), number of complications (OR = 0.932) and right brain stroke (OR = 0.869). Factors associated with meeting or exceeding goals were: LOS (OR = 1.03), admission FIM score (OR = 1.02) and females (OR = 1.05).

CONCLUSIONS: Trends for lower goals and lower discharge function occurred over time. A correlation existed between predicted FIM scores and discharge FIM scores. Patient factors were associated with goal achievement.

IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATION: Using the Functional Independence Measure, rehabilitation teams set lower goals for stroke rehabilitation in inpatient rehabilitation facilities during first 5.5 years of the IRF-PAI dataset. Discharge FIM scores also trended lower and fell at faster rate than goal FIM scores. Teams' goal FIM scores averaged nearly 12 points higher than discharge FIM scores, and over 75% of patients did not reach goals for the rehabilitation stay. Factors associated with meeting or exceeding goals were: length of stay, admission FIM scores and being a female. Factors associated with not meeting or exceeding goals were: age, number of comorbidities and complications, having a right-brain stroke and being African American.