Branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms: does cyst size change the tip of the scale? A critical analysis of the revised international consensus guidelines in a large single-institutional series.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to critically analyze the safety of the revised guidelines, with focus on cyst size and worrisome features in the management of BD-IPMN.

BACKGROUND: The Sendai guidelines for management of branch duct (BD) intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) espouse safety of observation of asymptomatic cysts smaller than 3 cm without nodules (Sendai negative). Revised international consensus guidelines published in 2012 suggest a still more conservative approach, even for lesions of 3 cm or larger. By contrast, 2 recent studies have challenged the safety of both guidelines, describing invasive carcinoma or carcinoma in situ in 67% of BD-IPMN smaller than 3 cm and in 25% of "Sendai-negative" BD-IPMN.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Review of a prospective database identified 563 patients with BD-IPMN. A total of 240 patients underwent surgical resection (152 at the time of diagnosis and 88 after being initially followed); the remaining 323 have been managed by observation with median follow-up of 60 months. No patient developed unresectable BD-IPMN carcinoma during follow-up. Invasive cancer arising in BD-IPMN was found in 23 patients of the entire cohort (4%), and an additional 21 patients (3.7%) had or developed concurrent pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. According to the revised guidelines, 76% of resected BD-IPMN with carcinoma in situ and 95% of resected BD-IPMN with invasive cancer had high-risk stigmata or worrisome features. The risk of high-grade dysplasia in nonworrisome lesions smaller than 3 cm was 6.5%, but when the threshold was raised to greater than 3 cm, it was 8.8%, and 1 case of invasive carcinoma was found.

CONCLUSIONS: Expectant management of BD-IPMN following the old guidelines is safe, whereas caution is advised for larger lesions, even in the absence of worrisome features.