A risk prediction score for kidney failure or mortality in rhabdomyolysis.

IMPORTANCE: Rhabdomyolysis ranges in severity from asymptomatic elevations in creatine phosphokinase levels to a life-threatening disorder characterized by severe acute kidney injury requiring hemodialysis or continuous renal replacement therapy (RRT).

OBJECTIVE: To develop a risk prediction tool to identify patients at greatest risk of RRT or in-hospital mortality.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective cohort study of 2371 patients admitted between January 1, 2000, and March 31, 2011, to 2 large teaching hospitals in Boston, Massachusetts, with creatine phosphokinase levels in excess of 5000 U/L within 3 days of admission. The derivation cohort consisted of 1397 patients from Massachusetts General Hospital, and the validation cohort comprised 974 patients from Brigham and Women's Hospital.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The composite of RRT or in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS: The causes and outcomes of rhabdomyolysis were similar between the derivation and validation cohorts. In total, the composite outcome occurred in 19.0% of patients (8.0% required RRT and 14.1% died during hospitalization). The highest rates of the composite outcome were from compartment syndrome (41.2%), sepsis (39.3%), and following cardiac arrest (58.5%). The lowest rates were from myositis (1.7%), exercise (3.2%), and seizures (6.0%). The independent predictors of the composite outcome were age, female sex, cause of rhabdomyolysis, and values of initial creatinine, creatine phosphokinase, phosphate, calcium, and bicarbonate. We developed a risk-prediction score from these variables in the derivation cohort and subsequently applied it in the validation cohort. The C statistic for the prediction model was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.80-0.85) in the derivation cohort and 0.83 (0.80-0.86) in the validation cohort. The Hosmer-Lemeshow P values were .14 and .28, respectively. In the validation cohort, among the patients with the lowest risk score (<5), 2.3% died or needed RRT. Among the patients with the highest risk score (>10), 61.2% died or needed RRT.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Outcomes from rhabdomyolysis vary widely depending on the clinical context. The risk of RRT or in-hospital mortality in patients with rhabdomyolysis can be estimated using commonly available demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables on admission.