Risk analysis system for the transport of hazardous materials

Koen Van Raemdonck, Cathy Macharis, Olivier Mairesse
Journal of Safety Research 2013, 45: 55-63

INTRODUCTION: In this paper, a literature study on risk analysis systems for the transport of hazardous materials was conducted.

RESULTS: The insights that resulted from this literature review have led to the development of a refined approach to map the risk of hazmat transport in Flanders based on historical accident data. The proposed framework allows setting up an overall risk map for hazmat transport by different transport modes. Additionally, a methodology to calculate a local accident risk, which takes local infrastructure parameters and accident data into account, is being introduced. In the presented framework one of the general principles is that the risk of a catastrophic hazmat incident can be divided into two parts, which can both be validated on the basis of accident data: (a) the calculation of the general probability of the occurrence of an accident based on international accident data of transport of hazardous materials--this is the basis for the global risk map, and (b) the calculation of the local probability of the occurrence of an accident based on accident data and infrastructure parameters of the complete available freight transport in Flanders--this is the basis for the local risk map. The ratio between these two results in a locality parameter, which represents the local specific circumstances that can lead to an accident.

CONCLUSIONS: This evaluation framework makes it possible to estimate the risks of hazmat transport along a specific route for transport by road, rail, inland navigation and even pipelines.

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