Predictors of long-term survival among first-ever ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in a Brazilian stroke cohort.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have examined both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke to identify prognostic factors associated to long-term stroke survival. We investigated long-term survival and predictors that could adversely influence ischemic and hemorrhagic first-ever stroke prognosis.

METHODS: We prospectively ascertained 665 consecutive first-ever ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke cases from "The Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity" (The EMMA Study) in a community hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. We evaluated cardiovascular risk factors and sociodemographic characteristics (age, gender, race and educational level).

RESULTS: We found a lower survival rate among hemorrhagic cases compared to ischemic stroke cases at the end of 4 years of follow-up (52% vs. 44%, p = 0.04). The risk of death was two times higher among people with ischemic stroke without formal education. Also, we found consistently higher risk of death for diabetics with ischemic stroke (HR = 1.45; 95% CI = 1.07-1.97) compared to no diabetics. As expected, age equally influenced on the high risk of poor survival, regardless of stroke subtype.

CONCLUSIONS: For ischemic stroke, the lack of formal education and diabetes were significant independent predictors of poor long-term survival.