Spot sign number is the most important spot sign characteristic for predicting hematoma expansion using first-pass computed tomography angiography: analysis from the PREDICT study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The spot sign score (SSS) provides risk stratification for hematoma expansion in acute intracerebral hemorrhage; however, external validation is needed. We sought to validate the SSS and assess prognostic performance of individual spot characteristics associated with hematoma expansion from a prospective multicenter intracerebral hemorrhage study.

METHODS: Two hundred twenty-eight intracerebral hemorrhage patients within 6 hours after ictus were enrolled in the Predicting Hematoma Growth and Outcome in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Using Contrast Bolus CT (PREDICT) study, a multicenter prospective intracerebral hemorrhage cohort study. Patients were evaluated with baseline noncontrast computerized tomography, computerized tomography angiography, and 24-hour follow-up computerized tomography. Primary outcome was significant hematoma expansion (>6 mL or >33%) and secondary outcome was absolute and relative expansion. Blinded computerized tomography angiography spot sign characterization and SSS calculation were independently performed by 2 neuroradiologists and a radiology resident. Diagnostic performance of the SSS and individual spot characteristics were examined with multivariable regression, receiver operating characteristic analysis, and tests for trend.

RESULTS: SSS and spot number independently predicted significant, absolute, and relative hematoma expansion (P<0.05 each) and demonstrated near perfect interobserver agreement (κ=0.82 and κ=0.85, respectively). Incremental risk of hematoma expansion among spot-positive patients was not identified for SSS (P trend=0.720) but was demonstrated for spot number (P trend=0.050). Spot number and SSS demonstrated similar area under the curve (0.69 versus 0.68; P=0.306) for hematoma expansion.

CONCLUSIONS: Multicenter external validation of the SSS demonstrates that the spot number alone provides similar prediction but improved risk stratification of hematoma expansion compared with the SSS.