Early increase in α-fetoprotein for predicting unfavorable clinical outcomes in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib.

BACKGROUND: To determine the value of early alterations of the tumor markers α-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) for predicting the outcomes of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who receive sorafenib.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Tumor response, overall survival (OS), and progression-free survival (PFS) were retrospectively analyzed in 59 patients with advanced HCC. Serum AFP and DCP were examined for early elevation within 4 weeks after the initiation of sorafenib. An increase in AFP was defined as AFP of more than 20%, and an increase in DCP was defined as more than two-fold higher level than the baseline. The relationship of the clinical characteristics, laboratory data at baseline, and early elevations of AFP and DCP with disease progression was analyzed.

RESULTS: The median OS and PFS were 11 and 3.3 months, respectively. The rate of progressive disease (PD) was 54%, and an early increase in AFP was significantly related to PD (P=0.006) and was a significant independent predictor of both poorer OS and PFS (P<0.001, hazard ratio, 4.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.946-8.811; and P=0.001, hazard ratio, 2.852; 95% confidence interval, 1.524-5.337, respectively). There was no association between early increase in DCP and clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSION: Early increase in AFP predicted PD and poorer survival and may thus be a useful biomarker in patients with advanced HCC who receive sorafenib.