Incidence and predictors for delirium in hospitalized elderly patients: a retrospective cohort study.

AIM: to determine the incidence and predictors for delirium and to develop a prediction model for delirium in hospitalized elderly patient in Indonesia.

METHODS: a retrospective cohort study was conducted in elderly patients (aged 60 years and older) who were hospitalized in Internal Medicine Ward and Acute Geriatric Ward Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital from January 2008 until December 2010. Patients were not delirious on admission. Twelve predefined predictors for development of delirium during hospitalization were identified on admission. Independent predictors for delirium were identified by Cox's proportional hazard regression analysis and each independent predictor was quantified to develop delirium prediction model. The calibration performance of the model was tested by Hosmer-Lameshow test and its discrimination ability was determined by calculating area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS: subjects consist of 457 patients, predominantly male (52.5%) and were in 60-69 age group (55.8%), with mean age of 69.6 (SD 7.09) years old. Delirium developed in 86 patients (cumulative incidence 18.8%, incidence density 0.021 per person-days) during first fourteen-days of hospitalization. Three independent predictors for delirium were identified, including: infection (without sepsis, adjusted HR1.83 (95% CI 0.82-4.10); with sepsis, adjusted HR 4.86, 95% CI 2.14-11.04), cognitive impairment (adjusted HR 3.12; 95%CI 1.89-5.13) and decrease of functional status (adjusted HR 1.74; 95% CI 1.07-2.82). Predictive model was performed using the final model of multivariate analysis and stratified into three levels: low- (rate of delirium 4.4%), intermediate- (32.8%), and high-risk (54.7%) groups.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test revealed good precision (p-value 0,066) and the AUC showed good discrimination ability (0.82, 95% CI 0.78-0.88).

CONCLUSION: incidence of delirium is 18.8% in hospitalized elderly patients, with incidence density of 0.021 per person days. Infections, cognitive impairment, and decrease of functional status on admission are independent predictors for the development of delirium during hospitalization.