Predictive value of thromboembolic risk scores before an atrial fibrillation ablation procedure

Mariana Floria, Luc De Roy, Olivier Xhaet, Dominique Blommaert, Jacques Jamart, Marina Gerard, Fabien Dormal, Olivier Deceuninck, Valentin Ambarus, Baudouin Marchandise, Erwin Schroeder
Journal of Cardiovascular Electrophysiology 2013, 24 (2): 139-45

INTRODUCTION: It is not clear whether transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) should be performed prior to a planned atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation in all patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS: The objectives of this study were to determine in 681 consecutive patients: (i) the relationship between the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores, the presence of a thrombogenic milieu and left atrial (LA) volume; (ii) the need for TEE in patients with low and intermediate thromboembolic risk assessed; and (iii) the predictive accuracy of the these 2 scores for the presence of thrombi in the LA/LAA (LA appendage) before a planned AF ablation. The prevalence of thrombi was 1%. All patients with thrombi had LA dilatation, a CHADS2 score ≥ 1 and a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥ 2. CHADS2 or CHA2DS2-VASc scores <2 had an almost maximal negative predictive capability of excluding the presence of a thrombus (99.8% and 100%, respectively; 95% CI: 99-100). A CHADS2 score ≥ 2 had a sensitivity and specificity of 86% (95% CI: 42-100) and 82% (95% CI: 79-85), respectively, to predict the presence of a thrombus in the LA/LAA, while a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥ 2 had a sensitivity and specificity of 100% (95% CI: 59-100) and 67% (95% CI: 63-70). The area under the curve for CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥ 2 was 0.928 (95% CI: 0.906-0.946) and 0.933 (95% CI: 0.912-0.951), respectively.

CONCLUSION: Not all patients undergoing planned endocardial pulmonary vein isolation need preprocedural TEE. Both scores <2 had an almost maximal negative predictive capability of excluding the presence of a thrombus in the LA/LAA.

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