Percutaneous ablative therapies of recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy: proposal of a prognostic model.

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous ablative therapies (PAT) are valuable modalities for posthepatectomy recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (RHCC), but its impact on long-term outcome and prognosis prediction have not been well documented. The present study aimed to analyze prognostic factors and to propose a prognosis-predicting model for RHCC treated with PAT.

METHODS: A total of 288 patients with posthepatectomy RHCC treated with percutaneous ethanol ablation, radiofrequency ablation, microwave ablation, or ethanol ablation combined with radiofrequency ablation were included. Survival and prognostic factors were analyzed. A prognosis-predicting model was created by quantifying and integrating all prognostic factors.

RESULTS: Three-, 5-, and 7-year postablation survival rates were 37.8, 20.7, and 14.2 %, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that interval between recurrence and initial hepatectomy, tumor number, largest diameter of tumor, and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage at hepatectomy were independent prognostic factors for survival. A scoring system for prognostic factors was proposed, and summation of 4 prognostic factors (prognostic score) was ranged from 4 to 10. Prognostic score was classified into three strata, designated as prognostic classes A (score 4 and 5), B (score 6 and 7), and C (≥8). Three-, 5-, and 7-year postablation survival rates were 62.8, 39.4, and 26.9 % in class A, 36.9, 15.5, and 7.2 % in B, and 5.5, 0, and 0 % in class C, respectively (p = 0.00). Three-, 5-, 7-, and 10-year survival rates after initial hepatectomy were 82.4, 66.3, 52.1, and 36.4 % in class A, 51.6, 34.8, 20.7, and 6.6 % in class B, and 11.9, 7.8, 0, and 0 % in class C, respectively (p = 0.00).

CONCLUSIONS: The prognostic model developed in the study could clearly predict different long-term outcomes for patients with posthepatectomy RHCC and thus help decide appropriate therapeutic strategy.