Effect of observing change from comparison mammograms on performance of screening mammography in a large community-based population.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effect of comparison mammograms on accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV(1)), and cancer detection rate (CDR) of screening mammography to determine the role played by identification of change on comparison mammograms.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: This HIPAA-compliant and institutional review board-approved prospective study was performed with waiver of patient informed consent. A total of 1,157,980 screening mammograms obtained between 1994 and 2008 in 435,183 women aged at least 40 years were included. Radiologists recorded presence of comparison mammograms and change, if seen. Women were followed for 1 year to monitor cancer occurrence. Performance measurements were calculated for screening with comparison mammograms versus screening without comparison mammograms and for screening with comparison mammograms that showed a change versus screening with comparison mammograms that did not show a change while controlling for age, breast density, and data clustering.

RESULTS: Comparison mammograms were available in 93% of examinations. For screening with comparison mammograms versus screening without comparison mammograms, CDR per 1000 women was 3.7 versus 7.1; recall rate, 6.9% versus 14.9%; sensitivity, 78.9% versus 87.4%; specificity, 93.5% versus 85.7%; and PPV(1), 5.4% versus 4.8%. For screening with comparison mammograms that showed a change versus screening with comparison mammograms that did not show a change, CDR per 1000 women was 25.4 versus 0.8; recall rate, 41.4% versus 2.0%; sensitivity, 96.6% versus 43.5%; specificity, 60.4% versus 98.1%; and PPV(1), 6.0% versus 3.9%. Detected cancers with change were 21.1% ductal carcinoma in situ and 78.9% invasive carcinoma. Detected cancers with no change were 19.3% ductal carcinoma in situ and 80.7% invasive carcinoma.

CONCLUSION: Performance is affected when change from comparison mammograms is noted. Without change, sensitivity is low and specificity is high. With change, sensitivity is high, with a high false-positive rate (low specificity). Further work is needed to appreciate changes that might indicate cancer and to identify changes that are likely not indicative of cancer.