Outcome scoring systems for short-term prognosis in critically ill cirrhotic patients

Kun-Hua Tu, Chang-Chyi Jenq, Ming-Hung Tsai, Hsiang-Hao Hsu, Ming-Yang Chang, Ya-Chung Tian, Cheng-Chieh Hung, Ji-Tseng Fang, Chih-Wei Yang, Yung-Chang Chen
Shock 2011, 36 (5): 445-50
Cirrhotic patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) have high mortality rates. This study evaluated specific predictors and scoring systems for hospital and 6-month mortality in critically ill cirrhotic patients. This investigation is a prospective clinical study performed in a 10-bed specialized hepatogastroenterology ICU in a tertiary care university hospital in Taiwan. Two hundred two consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted to the ICU during a 2-year period were enrolled in this study. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables recorded on the first day of ICU admission and scoring systems applied were prospectively recorded for post hoc analysis for predicting survival. The overall hospital mortality was 59.9%, and the 6-month mortality rate was 70.8%. The main causes of cirrhosis were hepatitis B (29%), hepatitis C (22%), and alcoholism (20%). The major cause of ICU admission was upper gastrointestinal bleeding (36%). Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) score at the 48th hour of ICU admission and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) as well as the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores on the first day of ICU admission were independent risk factors for hospital mortality. The SOFA score had the best discriminatory power (0.872 ± 0.036), whereas the AKIN had the best Youden index (0.57) and the highest correctness of prediction (79%). Cumulative survival rates at the 6-month follow-up after hospital discharge differed significantly (P < 0.05) for AKIN stage 0 vs. stages 1, 2, and 3, and for AKIN stage 1 vs. stage 3. The AKIN, SOFA, and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores showed well discriminative power in predicting hospital mortality in this group of patients. The AKIN scoring system proved to be a reproducible evaluation tool with excellent prognostic abilities for these patients.

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