Shifts in the flowering phenology of the northern Great Plains: patterns over 100 years.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Climate change is associated with phenological shifts in an increasing number of organisms worldwide. However, accurate estimates of these shifts are dependent on long-term data sets that include phenological observations from before annual average temperatures began to rise.

METHODS: We compared the first flowering times of native prairie plants between 2007 and 2010 with historical data recorded by O. A. Stevens from 1910 to 1961. By merging climate variable data from the same time period, it also was possible to correlate first flowering dates with associated climate variables.

KEY RESULTS: Over the past 100 years, spring temperatures in the Red River Valley near Fargo, North Dakota, USA, have increased, and growing seasons have lengthened significantly. Seventy-five percent of the 178 species observed by Stevens had flowering times that were sensitive to at least one variable related to temperature or precipitation. Over the past 4 yr, 5% to 17% of the species observed have significantly shifted their first flowering time either earlier or later relative to the previous century.

CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that as spring temperatures in the northern Great Plains have increased and the growing season has lengthened, some spring flowering species have advanced their first flowering time, some fall species have delayed their first flowering, and some species have not changed. Given the importance of flowering timing for reproductive success, the changing climate in the Great Plains is expected to have long-term ecological and evolutionary consequences for native plant species.