Can urgency classification of the Manchester triage system predict serious bacterial infections in febrile children?

Ruud G Nijman, Rob L J Zwinkels, Mirjam van Veen, Ewout W Steyerberg, Johan van der Lei, Henriƫtte A Moll, Rianne Oostenbrink
Archives of Disease in Childhood 2011, 96 (8): 715-22

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the discriminative ability of the Manchester triage system (MTS) to identify serious bacterial infections (SBIs) in children with fever in the emergency department (ED) and to study the association between predictors of SBI and discriminators of MTS urgency of care.

METHODS: This prospective observational study included 1255 children with fever (1 month-16 years) attending the ED of the Erasmus MC-Sophia Children's Hospital, Rotterdam, The Netherlands in 2008-9. Triage urgency was determined with the MTS (urgency (U) level 1-5). The relationship between triage urgency and SBI was assessed with multivariable logistic regression, including effects of age, sex and temperature. Discriminative ability was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

RESULTS: SBI prevalence was 11% (n=131, 95% CI 9% to 12%). The discriminative value of the MTS for predicting SBI was 0.57 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.62), and the MTS did not contribute to a model including age, sex and temperature. The sensitivity of the MTS (U1-2 vs U3-5) to detect SBI was 0.42 (95% CI 0.33 to 0.51) and specificity was 0.69 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.72). MTS high urgency discriminators include several known predictors of SBI, such as fever, work of breathing, meningism and oxygen saturation, but apply to non-SBI children as well.

CONCLUSION: The MTS has poor discriminative ability to predict the presence of SBIs in children presenting with fever to the paediatric ED. Important predictors of SBI are represented within the MTS, but are used in a different way to classify urgency.

Full Text Links

Find Full Text Links for this Article


You are not logged in. Sign Up or Log In to join the discussion.

Related Papers

Remove bar
Read by QxMD icon Read

Save your favorite articles in one place with a free QxMD account.


Search Tips

Use Boolean operators: AND/OR

diabetic AND foot
diabetes OR diabetic

Exclude a word using the 'minus' sign

Virchow -triad

Use Parentheses

water AND (cup OR glass)

Add an asterisk (*) at end of a word to include word stems

Neuro* will search for Neurology, Neuroscientist, Neurological, and so on

Use quotes to search for an exact phrase

"primary prevention of cancer"
(heart or cardiac or cardio*) AND arrest -"American Heart Association"