Evaluation of liver fibrosis: concordance analysis between noninvasive scores (APRI and FIB-4) evolution and predictors in a cohort of HIV-infected patients without hepatitis C and B infection.

BACKGROUND: There is lack of data on the incidence of liver fibrosis (LF) progression in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) monoinfection and risk factors for LF.

METHODS: We performed an observational prospective study in a cohort of HIV-infected patients who had initiated highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). FIB-4 and aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) were assessed. The concordance between the 2 scores was assessed by weighted kappa coefficient. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate the incidence of LF. Cox regression analysis was used to assess the predictors of transition.

RESULTS: A total of 1112 patients were observed for a mean of 2249 days of follow-up. The concordance between FIB-4 and APRI was moderate (kappa = .573). The incidence of transition to higher FIB-4 classes was 0.064 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.056-0.072) per person-year of follow-up (PYFU), whereas the incidence of transition to higher APRI classes was 0.099 (95% CI, 0.089-0.110) per PYFU. The incidence of transition to FIB-4 >3.25 was 0.013 per PYFU (95% CI, 0.010-0.017) and 0.018 per PYFU (95% CI, 0.014-0.022) for APRI >1.5. In multivariate analyses, for transition to higher classes, HIV RNA level <500 copies/mL was found to be protective for both scores, and higher CD4+ T cell count was found to be protective for FIB-4. Additional risk factors were age ≥ 40 years, male sex, intravenous drug use as an HIV infection risk factor, higher degree of LF, higher gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (γGT) at baseline, and use of dideoxynucleoside-analogue drugs (DDX). Consistent results for the main study outcomes were obtained for confirmed LF transition and transition to FIB-4 > 3.25 and APR I> 1.5 as study outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our results suggest a possible benefit associated with earlier HAART initiation, provided that the effectiveness of HAART is sustained and treatment with DDX is avoided.