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Thalamic damage predicts the evolution of primary-progressive multiple sclerosis at 5 years.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Reliable markers to monitor PPMS are still needed. We investigated whether conventional and DTI measures of thalamic damage are predictive of long-term disability accumulation in PPMS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Brain conventional and DTI scans were obtained at baseline and after a mean follow-up of 15 months in 54 patients with PPMS and 8 healthy controls. Patients were reassessed clinically after 5 years. At baseline and follow-up, measures of lesion load, brain atrophy, and NTV were obtained. MD and FA histograms of the NAWM, the whole GM without the thalami, and the thalami were obtained. A multivariate analysis evaluated the predictors of long-term neurologic deterioration.

RESULTS: At follow-up, 35 patients showed disability worsening. At baseline, compared with healthy controls, patients with PPMS had lower NTV (P < .001) and thalamic FA (P = .002) and higher thalamic (P = .002) and whole GM without the thalami (P = .005) MD. During follow-up, the change of thalamic FA was higher in PPMS versus healthy controls (P = .01). Baseline NTV and thalamic DTI quantities differed significantly between patients with PPMS with and without thalamic lesions. Baseline thalamic quantities were significantly correlated with the extent of brain T2 lesions and the severity of NAWM damage. The multivariate model included average NAWM MD (OR = 1.46, P = .005) and FA thalamic change (OR = 0.84, P = .02) as independent predictors of EDSS score deterioration (Nagelkerke R(2) = 0.55).

CONCLUSIONS: Short-term accrual of thalamic damage and the severity of NAWM involvement predict the long-term accumulation of disability in PPMS.

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