Incidence of pancreatic cancer in chinese patients with chronic pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: It is suggested that patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP) have a markedly increased risk of pancreatic cancer compared with the general population. This study was designed to determine the rate of pancreatic cancer in CP patients in China.

METHODS: This was a semiprospective, single-center study including 420 consecutive CP patients (285 males and 135 females, median age at onset 39.5 years), with the median follow-up time being 102.3 months (range 24-419 months). We calculated the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) based on the pancreatic cancer incidence in the general population of China.

RESULTS: Four cases of pancreatic cancer (0.9% of patients) were observed in 3,591 patient-years (expected number of cases 0.15; SIR 27.2, 95% CI 7.4-69.6). Similar results were seen in alcoholics and non-alcoholics, and in smokers and non-smokers. When patients lost to follow-up were considered to be followed up until the end point without having developed pancreatic cancer (4,280 patient-years), SIR was 22.8 (CI 6.2-58.4). Based on the Cox model, with inserting factors being sex, age at the time of CP clinical onset, type of pancreatitis, and presence or absence of diabetes, calcification, alcohol use and smoking status, only age was found to correlate positively with the occurrence of pancreatic cancer (>50 years, hazard ratio, 1.8 ± 0.5; p = 0.044).

CONCLUSION: The risk of pancreatic cancer is markedly increased in CP patients in China compared with the general population, especially in older patients. and IAP.