Effect of days to conception in the previous lactation on the risk of death and live culling around calving.

The objective was to quantify the effect of days to conception (days open) in the previous parity on the risk of death and live culling (excluding the disposal reasons "dairy purposes" and "death") in the proximity of a subsequent calving in Holstein cows enrolled in the Dairy Herd Improvement program. After edits, 2,075,834 observations of cows calving between 2001 and 2007 in herds located in 36 US states primarily east of the Mississippi river were available. The period at risk included the time between 14 d before expected calving to 60 d after calving. Days open were categorized in 6 periods: 0 to 45 d, 46 to 90 d, 91 to 150 d, 151 to 210 d, 211 to 300 d, and 301 to 600 d after calving in the previous parity. Other variables of interest included parity, length of the dry period before calving, relative last test-day milk yield before dry off before calving, season of calving, and the cow's relative 305-d mature equivalent (305ME) milk yield before calving. Control variables were calving year, herd size, and relative herd 305ME milk yield. All variables were categorized. Generalized mixed models were used and included herd as random effect. Interactions between days open and the variables of interest were included in the models. Least squares means for the risk of death between -14 and 60 d after calving were 2.5, 2.5, 2.9, 3.6, 4.4, and 5.8% for increasing categories of days open. Similarly, for the same categories, least squares means for the risk of live culling were 4.5, 5.0, 5.4, 6.1, 6.9, and 8.1%. The effect of days open on the risk of death was slightly greater for third-parity cows, for long dry periods, for cows with low test-day milk yield before dry off before calving, for spring calvings, and for intermediate relative 305ME milk yield before calving. Similar trends for these interactions were found for the risk of live culling, except for relative 305ME milk yield before calving, where the effect of days open was more pronounced for high-producing cows. In conclusion, increased days open in the previous parity were associated with a greater risk of death and live culling around calving.