Factors indicative of long-term survival after lung transplantation: a review of 836 10-year survivors.

INTRODUCTION: Despite 20 years of lung transplantation (LTx), factors influencing long-term survival remain largely unknown. The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) data set provides an opportunity to examine long-term LTx survivors.

METHODS: We conducted a case-control study embedded within the prospectively collected UNOS LTx cohort to identify 836 adults from 1987 to 1997 who survived >or=10 years after first LTx. LTx patients within the same era and surviving 1 to 5 years served as controls. Multivariable logistic regression with incorporation of spline terms evaluated the odds of being a 10-year survivor. Two separate models were constructed. Model A incorporated pre-operative, operative, and donor-specific factors. Model B incorporated the factors used in Model A with post-operative covariates. Additional outcomes evaluated included hospitalizations for infection, rejection, and bronchiolitis obliterans.

RESULTS: Of 4,818 LTx patients from 1987 to 1997, 836 (17.3%) survived >or=10 years with a mean follow-up of 148.8 +/- 21.6 months. Mean follow-up for 1,657 controls was 34.0 +/- 13.9 months. The distribution of 10-year survivors by disease was cystic fibrosis, 170 (20%); chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 254 (30%); and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, 92 (11%). On multivariable logistic regression, significant factors influencing 10-year survival included age
CONCLUSIONS: Examination of a cohort of long-term LTx survivors in the UNOS data set indicates that bilateral LTx and fewer hospitalizations for rejection may portend improved long-term survival after LTx.