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Risk score for predicting outcome in patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis.

Circulation 2009 July 8
BACKGROUND: The management of patients with asymptomatic severe aortic stenosis remains controversial. We sought to develop a continuous risk score for predicting the midterm development of symptoms or adverse events in this setting.

METHODS AND RESULTS: We prospectively followed 107 patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis (aged 72 years [63 to 77]; 35 women; aortic-jet velocity, 4.1 m/s [3.5 to 4.4]) at a single center in France. Predefined end points for assessing outcome were the occurrence within 24 months of death or aortic valve replacement necessitated by symptoms or by a positive exercise test. Variables independently associated with outcome were used to build a score that was validated in an independent cohort of 107 patients from Belgium. Independent predictors of outcome were female sex, peak aortic-jet velocity, and B-type natriuretic peptide at baseline. Accordingly, the score could be calculated as follows: Score=[peak velocity (m/s) x 2]+(natural logarithm of B-type natriuretic peptide x 1.5)+1.5 (if female sex). Event-free survival after 20 months was 80% for patients within the first score quartile compared with only 7% for the fourth quartile. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score were 0.90 and 0.89 in the development and validation cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: If further validation is achieved, this score may be useful to predict outcome in individual patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis to select those who might benefit from early surgery.

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