Value of the model for end-stage liver disease for predicting survival in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and its modified forms, and to compare these scoring systems with other staging systems for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 325 patients who underwent TACE for the initial treatment of HCC between January 2000 and May 2007 were enrolled in the study. Before TACE was carried out, MELD, MELD-Na, Child-Pugh score, Okuda stage, CLIP score, JIS score, BCLC stage, and UICC stage were checked. After one month, delta MELD and delta MELD-Na were calculated.

RESULTS: Mean MELD/MELD-Na/delta MELD/delta MELD-Na scores were 7.5+/-3.7, 8.0+/-4.7, -0.2+/-3.5 and 0.04+/-4.5, respectively. MELD (p=0.009) and MELD-Na (p=0.017) significantly correlated with survival, but delta MELD and delta MELD-Na did not (p >0.05). The Child-Pugh score and other staging systems correlated significantly with survival (p <0.05). The AUROC values for 3, 12, and 36 months' survival were 0.633, 0.545, and 0.615 for MELD; 0.655, 0.555, and 0.612 for MELD-Na; 0.639, 0.616, and 0.691 for Child-Pugh score; 0.714, 0.662, and 0.717 for the Okuda score; 0.837, 0.86, and 0.792 for the CLIP score; 0.859, 0.814, and 0.808 for the JIS score; 0.846, 0.833, and 0.749 for BCLC stage; and 0.878, 0.812, and 0.735 for UICC stage, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: MELD and MELD-Na showed good correlations with survival, especially for patients with early-stage disease. However, these were not superior to those of other staging systems or Child-Pugh score. These parameters should only be used as supportive data.