Predictors of development and progression of microvascular complications in a cohort of Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients.

AIMS: Microvascular complications are associated with increased mortality in diabetes. The objective of this study was to investigate the predictors of microvascular complication development and progression in a prospective study of Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients.

METHODS: A prospective follow-up study was carried out with 471 type 2 diabetic outpatients. Primary end points were the development or progression of retinopathy, peripheral neuropathy, and clinical nephropathy. Predictors were assessed for each individual microvascular complication and also as a composite outcome by Kaplan-Meier estimation of survival curves and by uni- and multivariate Cox analysis.

RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 57 months (range 2-84 months), 196 patients (41.6%) developed or had a progression in microvascular disease. Retinopathy occurred in 22.5%, nephropathy in 19.1%, and neuropathy in 15.5% of the patients. In Cox multivariate analysis, increased echocardiographic left ventricular mass (LVM) and longer diabetes duration were selected as predictors for all end points. Higher mean fasting glycemia was a predictor for retinopathy and neuropathy, lower serum high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol for neuropathy, and higher total cholesterol for nephropathy. Increased LVM [hazard ratio (HR): 1.39, 95% CI: 1.23-1.56], higher fasting glycemia (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.04-1.36), and longer diabetes duration (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.11-1.47) were the predictors of the composite end point.

CONCLUSIONS: Development and progression of microvascular complications in Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients are associated with worse hypertension and metabolic control. Additional studies are necessary to show if modification of these risk factors can reduce the burden of morbidity and mortality related to microvascular disease in type 2 diabetes.