Prognostic factors of survival in complicated viral and alcoholic cirrhosis without hepatocellular carcinoma. A retrospective study.

AIM: In several studies, attention is needed to one specific complication, in particularly to hepatocellular carcinoma, which modifies the natural history of liver cirrhosis. Thus, we performed a retrospective cohort analysis to clarify which complications, alone or in combination, are predictive factors of mortality in patients with viral or alcoholic cirrhosis without hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS: Case records of 255 patients with decompensated viral or alcoholic cirrhosis between January 1990 and December 2000 were retrospectively analyzed. Relevant clinical and laboratory parameters, and their relationship to mortality, were studied.

RESULTS: The mean duration of follow-up period was 29 months in which 178 patients (69.8%) died and 77 (31.8%) survived. None of the patients underwent liver transplantation. The cumulative mortality rate of patients with complicated cirrhosis was 38.8% after 1 year, 51.7% after 2 years, 61.1% after 3 years and 65.1% after 8 years. A multivariate Cox's model identified the following variables as significant: age (P=0.001), gastrointestinal bleeding (GB)-ascites combination (P=0.000), encephalopathy-GB-ascites (P=0.028), hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) (P=0.000), GB-spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) (P=0.001), alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (P=0.004) and the Child-Pugh score (P=0.000).

CONCLUSION: The mortality in a group of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis is longer than in those with viral cirrhosis . Moreover, ascites in combination with other complications, HRS and hemorrage-SBP association are independent predictors of mortality in patients with complicated liver cirrhosis.