Predictors of new-onset decline in kidney function in a general middle-european population.

BACKGROUND: Limited epidemiological data are available on predictors of new-onset kidney disease.

METHODS: In this longitudinal cohort study, 17 375 apparently healthy volunteers of the general Viennese population (46.4% women, age range 20-84 years, men 20-89 years) performed a baseline examination at some time within the study period (1990-2005) and completed a median of two follow-up examinations [interquartile range (IQR) 1 to 4]; the median follow-up period was 7 years (IQR 4 to 11). The outcome of interest was the development of kidney disease, defined as a decrease of the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) at the follow-up examinations [calculated by the abbreviated modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD) equation]. Logistic generalized estimating equations were used to analyse the relationship between the covariates and the outcome variable.

RESULTS: The following parameters [odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals] predicted new-onset kidney disease: Age (increase by 5 years), OR = 1.36 (1.34-1.40); National Kidney Foundation-chronic kidney disease (NKF-CKD) stage 1 with proteinuria (+), OR = 1.39 (1.10-1.75); NKF-CKD stage 1 with proteinuria (>/=++), OR = 2.07 (1.11-3.87); NKF-CKD stage 2 with proteinuria (+), OR = 2.71 (2.10-3.51); NKF-CKD stage 2 with proteinuria (>/=++), OR = 3.80 (2.29-6.31); body mass index, OR = 1.04 (1.02-1.06); current-smoker, OR = 1.20 (1.01-1.43); performing no sports, OR = 1.57 (1.27-1.95); uric acid (increase by 2 mg/dl), OR = 1.69 (1.59-1.80); HDL-cholesterol (decrease by 10 mg/dl), OR = 1.12 (1.07-1.17); hypertension stage 1, OR = 1.35 (1.08-1.67); hypertension stage 2, OR = 2.01 (1.62-2.51); diabetes mellitus, OR = 1.44 (1.07-1.93).

CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular risk factors as well as NKF-CKD stages 1 and 2 and proteinuria, the more the higher and an entirely novel finding, performing no sports, predicted new-onset kidney disease.