[Acute upper gastrointestinal nonvariceal bleeding—how to determine low risk patients for rebleeding and mortality after endoscopic sclerotherapy?]

S Djuranović, M Spuran, N Mijalković, D Stanisavljević, M Ugljesić, D Popović, M Krstić, T Milosavjević, P Pesko, O Matejić, A Pavlović, A Culafić, I Jovanović, T Alempijević, A Sokić-Milutinović, M Bulajić
Acta Chirurgica Iugoslavica 2007, 54 (1): 107-14

INTRODUCTION: Successful endoscopic sclerotherapy is effective in securing hemostasis for bleeding lesions and remains the first line and only needed therapy for most of the patients (pts), but bleeding reoccurs in 10% to 30% pts, and 4% to 14% of the pts die after acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). The need for hospitalization and its duration for all the bleeding pts is still a controversial question.

AIM: To create the simple scoring system able to determine low risk pts for rebleeding and mortality by establishing the relative importance of risk factors for rebleeding and mortality after successful endoscopic sclerotherapy of acute nonvariceal UGIB.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: Prospective study included 3 15 pts who where admitted to hospital because of acute nonvariceal UGIB. All of them underwent gastroscopy with successful sclerotherapy within 12 hours after the admission. We investigated the episode of rebleeding and death during the initial hospitalization, and analyzed the following parameters: age, gender, drug intake, shock, bleeding stigmata, location of bleeding lesion and comorbidity.

RESULTS: Rebleeding occurred in 53 pts (16.8%) and was determined by shock, bleeding stigmata and comorbidity. Eleven pts (3.5%) died and shock, rebleeding and comorbidity were all independent, statistically significant predictors of pts' mortality. The numerical scores for determination of pts with different risk levels for rebleeding and mortality have been developed using the significant predictors of rebleeding and death. The score values for rebleeding ranged from 3 to 9 and pts with values < or = 4 had low risk of rebleeding. We identified 59 pts (18.7% of all) with score for rebleeding < or = 4. Score values for mortality risk ranged from 3 to 8 and the values < 5 revealed negligible risk of death. In our group we found 290 pts (92.1% of all) with low mortality score values.

CONCLUSION: Following the successful initial endoscopic sclerotherapy, these scores can help to identify pts with low risk of rebleeding and negligible risk of death, so they can be treated as outpatients.

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