Pre-transplant risk factors for chronic renal dysfunction after pediatric heart transplantation: a 10-year national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic renal dysfunction may develop after pediatric heart transplantation (PHTx). We examined the incidence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and chronic renal insufficiency (CRI) after PHTx, the associated pre-transplant patient characteristics, and impact of renal disease on survival.

METHODS: Data sources included the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the Social Security Death Master File. All PHTx recipients (age <18 years) in the USA from 1990 to 1999 who survived >1 year were included. ESRD was defined as long-term dialysis and/or kidney transplant. CRI was defined as creatinine >2.5 mg/dl, including those with ESRD. Relationships between pre-transplant characteristics and time to ESRD and CRI were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. The effect of renal disease on survival was analyzed using time-dependent Cox models.

RESULTS: During the mean follow-up of 7 years (range 1 to 14 years), 61 of 2,032 (3%) PHTxs developed ESRD. Ten-year actuarial risks for ESRD and CRI were 4.3% and 11.8%, respectively. In a multivariate analysis, significant risk factors for ESRD were: hypertrophic cardiomyopathy; African-American race; intensive care unit (ICU) stay or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) at time of transplant; and pre-transplant diabetes. Risk factors for CRI were: pre-transplant dialysis; hypertrophic cardiomyopathy; African-American race; and previous transplant. Adjusted risk of death in those who developed CRI was 9-fold higher than in those who did not (p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS: After PHTx there is an increasing risk for CRI and ESRD over time. Recipients with the characteristics identified in this study may be at greater risk. Development of renal disease significantly increases the risk of post-transplant mortality.