Risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with alcoholic or viral C cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Influence of being overweight and diabetes mellitus on the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis has not been evaluated prospectively. The aim of this study was to show the predictive value of these factors in a cohort of 771 patients with well-compensated alcohol- or hepatitis C (HCV)-related cirrhosis who were screened prospectively for HCC.

METHODS: The predictive value for HCC occurrence was assessed by using the log-rank test and the Cox proportional hazards model. At enrollment, the mean age was 61.4 +/- 10 years and 431 patients were men. Cirrhosis was caused by alcohol (n = 478), HCV (n = 220), or the association of both factors (n = 73). The mean body mass index (BMI) was 25.4 kg/m(2) and 231 patients were diabetic.

RESULTS: During a mean follow-up period of 4.2 +/- 3 years, 220 patients developed HCC. In univariate analysis, a BMI of 25 kg/m(2) or more, diabetes, male sex, age older than 60 years, and HCV infection were risk factors for HCC. In multivariate analysis, predictive factors were a BMI between 25-30 kg/m(2) (hazard ratio [HR], 2.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-2.7), BMI of 30 kg/m(2) or more (HR, 2.8; 95% CI, 2.0-4.0), diabetes (HR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2-2.1), age 60-70 years (HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.3-4.3), age older than 70 years (HR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.7-5.5), male sex (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.4-2.7), HCV (HR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.2), and mixed (HR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.7-4.0) etiology. We found a positive linear relationship between BMI level and HCC incidence during follow-up evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS: Overweight and diabetes mellitus are associated with an increased risk of HCC occurrence in patients with HCV- or alcohol-related cirrhosis.