JOURNAL ARTICLE

External validation of a percutaneous coronary intervention mortality prediction model in patients with acute coronary syndromes

Jaroslav Hubacek, P Diane Galbraith, Min Gao, Karin Humphries, Michelle M Graham, Merril L Knudtson, William A Ghali
American Heart Journal 2006, 151 (2): 308-15
16442892

BACKGROUND: The recently published Michigan outcome prediction model (MM) for inhospital mortality was developed and validated on a series of consecutive patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Our purpose was to externally validate the performance of the MM in 2 separate cohorts of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing PCI in Canada.

METHODS: A validation of the MM and development of an extended MM were performed on data describing 10,050 patients from the APPROACH prospective cohort study between January 1995 and December 2000. Performance of both models was assessed on an external data set of 3259 PCI cases from the British Columbia Cardiac Registries. Only patients with a diagnosis of ACS were included in the study.

RESULTS: The original MM predicted death rates ranging from 0.1% to 60.6%, but lacked accuracy to predict inhospital mortality as severity increased. The extended MM predicted death rates more widely from 0.0% to a high of 91.0% with better accuracy to predict inhospital death in patients with ACS undergoing PCI. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the MM and the extended MM on the external validation data set were 0.93 and 0.95, respectively.

CONCLUSION: The MM predicts death after PCI in patients with ACS and identifies a clear gradient of risk. However, the enhanced MM developed specifically for the subset of patients with ACS demonstrated better prediction and cross-validated performance. These prediction rules can be useful for risk-adjustment analyses and for prognostication for individual patients.

Full Text Links

Find Full Text Links for this Article

Discussion

You are not logged in. Sign Up or Log In to join the discussion.

Related Papers

Remove bar
Read by QxMD icon Read
16442892
×

Save your favorite articles in one place with a free QxMD account.

×

Search Tips

Use Boolean operators: AND/OR

diabetic AND foot
diabetes OR diabetic

Exclude a word using the 'minus' sign

Virchow -triad

Use Parentheses

water AND (cup OR glass)

Add an asterisk (*) at end of a word to include word stems

Neuro* will search for Neurology, Neuroscientist, Neurological, and so on

Use quotes to search for an exact phrase

"primary prevention of cancer"
(heart or cardiac or cardio*) AND arrest -"American Heart Association"

We want to hear from doctors like you!

Take a second to answer a survey question.