Comparative study of survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma predicted by different staging systems using multivariate analysis.

AIMS: In a previous pilot study, we reported the usefulness of the modified the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). To determine the best staging system for predicting the survival of HCC patients, we conducted a comparative analysis of prognosis using multivariate analysis in 210 Japanese HCC patients who underwent hepatic resection.

METHODS: We compared the survival as predicted by various staging systems, including tumour node metastasis (TNM) stage of the American Joint Commission on Cancer (AJCC) and the Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan, the Japan Integrated Staging (JIS) score (Japanese TNM and Child-Pugh classification), CLIP score and our modified CLIP score using protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist II (PIVKA-II).

RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed that discrimination of disease-free survival in the early and advanced stages by the JIS score and modified CLIP score was clearer than by the Japanese or AJCC TNM or the original CLIP score. Discrimination between stages of overall survival by all staging systems was significant. Multivariate analysis showed that the JIS, CLIP and modified CLIP scores were better staging systems for predicting survival than the Japanese and AJCC TNM. The modified CLIP score showed the lowest Akaike information criteria statistical value for disease-free and overall survival, which means the best discrimination ability for patient survival compared with the JIS score and CLIP score.

CONCLUSIONS: A staging system that combines tumour factors, sensitive tumour marker(s) and hepatic function is the best predictor of prognosis of HCC patients.