Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in elderly Italian patients with cirrhosis: effects on cancer staging and patient survival.

OBJECTIVES: Surveillance of cirrhotic individuals for early detection of HCC, based on ultrasonography (US) and alpha1-fetoprotein (AFP) determination, is a recommended practice currently applied also to elderly patients. However, several age-related factors may jeopardize the results of surveillance in these patients. Aim of the study was to evaluate the benefit of surveillance for HCC in elderly individuals.

METHODS: Multicenter retrospective study on 1,277 consecutive patients with HCC. The inclusion criteria were: underlying chronic liver disease, description of cancer stage, and modalities of its diagnosis. Among the 1,037 patients fulfilling these criteria, 363 aged > or = 70 yr were considered.

RESULTS: The tumor was detected during surveillance, based on US and AFP performed every 6-12 months, in 158 individuals (group 1), incidentally in 138 (group 2) and because of symptoms in 67 (group 3). Surveillance reduced the risk of dealing with an advanced cancer (odds ratio (95% Confidence Interval): 0.18 (0.09-0.37) vs group 3, and 0.29 (0.17-0.49) vs group 2). The frequency of effective treatments decreased from group 1 to group 3 (73%, 57%, and 31%, respectively). The main cause of death was HCC progression. The survival corrected for the lead time of group 1 (median: 24 months) was significantly better than the crude survival of group 3 (7 months; p= 0.003) and barely better than that of group 2 (21 months). The latter also showed a better prognosis with respect to group 3 (p= 0.018).

CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance for HCC improves the survival of elderly cirrhotic patients by expanding the percentage of cancers amenable to effective treatments.