Simulation of interactions between migrating whales and potential oil spills.

A numerical model system was developed to quantify the probability of endangered bowhead and gray whales encountering spilled oil in Alaskan waters. Migration and diving-surfacing models for bowhead and gray whales, and an oil spill trajectory model comprise the system. The migration models were developed from conceptual considerations, then calibrated with and tested against observations. The distribution of whales is represented in space and time by discrete points, each of which may represent one or more whales. The movement of a whale point is governed by a random walk algorithm which stochastically follows a migratory pathway. Stochastic diving-surfacing models are used to stimulate surfacing behavior sequences for each species. The oil spill model accounts for oil transport and spreading in open water and in the presence of sea ice. Historical wind records and ice cover data sets provide the environmental conditions to generate stochastic oil spill scenarios. The oil spill, whale migration and diving-surfacing models are linked to provide quantitative estimates of whale-oil interactions. The model system was applied to the Alaskan Beaufort Sea to investigate the probability that bowhead whales would encounter oil spilled in this region.