An assessment of the recidivism rates of substantiated and unsubstantiated maltreatment cases.

OBJECTIVE: This study assembles information about the large number of maltreatment reports that are determined by social services to be unsubstantiated. Specifically, we assess whether the status of a maltreatment case (substantiated vs. unsubstantiated) has implications for recidivism. Recidivism rates for substantiated and unsubstantiated maltreated juveniles were also compared to juvenile offenders.

METHOD: Juvenile court records for 15,812 juveniles were assessed over a 3 year period. The data included 2558 maltreatment cases. Fifty-four percent of these cases were unsubstantiated. Logistic regression analysis was employed to assess the probability of recidivism based on time one referral status.

RESULTS: Youth whose maltreatment allegations were unsubstantiated had significantly lower odds of recidivating than abused youth. Having a case recorded as unsubstantiated lowered a youth's odds of subsequent offending by 55% relative to being abused. The probability of recidivating was highest for juvenile offenders, followed in order by maltreated youth and youth whose reports were unsubstantiated.

DISCUSSION: This is one of the first studies to examine the court histories of substantiated and unsubstantiated maltreatment cases. If the subsequent outcomes following maltreatment investigations are used as an indicator of seriousness, our results suggest that assessment caseworkers are successfully sorting out the serious from the less serious cases.