Trends in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction between 1984 and 1993 - The Halifax County MONICA Project.

BACKGROUND: According to vital statistics data for Halifax County, between 1984 and 1993 the annual mortality rate decreased for ischemic heart disease and myocardial infarction (MI).

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the change in MI mortality, applying standardized diagnostic criteria; to determine whether decreased case fatality or decreased MI event rate, or both, caused decreased mortality; and to determine the contribution of MI incidence rate to altered event rate.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: All persons in the study area aged 25 to 74 years and admitted to hospital or dying outside hospital with suspected acute coronary syndromes were registered prospectively. Demographic, health history and clinical data were extracted from medical records or collected from medical examiner reports, next-of-kin interviews or family physicians. Definite or possible MI was diagnosed according to World Health Organization MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease (MONICA) criteria. Trends in age- and sex-standardized rates were estimated by using log-linear regression analysis.

RESULTS: Of 4283 patients admitted to hospital for MI, 23.9% died within 28 days; 1401 patients who had suffered an MI died before admission to hospital. MI mortality decreased annually by 3.9% (95% CI 1.9 to 5.8); two-thirds of the decline was due to MI event rates (2.6%; CI 1.3 to 3.8) and one-third to a decrease in 28-day case fatality (1.3%; CI 0.2 to 2. 3). A decrease in MI incidence rate (3.2%; CI 1.7 to 4.8), rather than a decline in MI recurrence rate (1.4%; CI 0.7 to -3.5), was the major reason for the declining event rate.

CONCLUSIONS: A decrease in the incidence of MI, possibly due to primary prevention, had a major impact on the declining MI mortality. Decreased in-hospital MI fatality, possibly due to improved treatment, was responsible for the decline in case fatality.