Smoking cessation and mortality trends among two United States populations

J E Enstrom
Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 1999, 52 (9): 813-25
The long-term impact of smoking cessation on mortality is assessed among two U.S. populations: a large cohort of U.S. veterans aged 55-64 at entry and followed from 1954 through 1979 and the NHANES I Epidemiologic Followup Study (NHEFS) cohort of a national sample of U.S. adults aged 55-74 at entry and followed from 1971 through 1992. Direct and indirect survey data indicate that 50-70% of those who were current cigarette smokers at entry had quit smoking during the 19- to 26-year follow-up periods. The impact of smoking cessation on mortality among the cigarette smokers as a whole has been assessed by determining the time trend of the relative risk (RR) of death and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the cigarette smokers compared with never-smokers over the entire follow-up period in both cohorts. The total death rates for the 1954/57 U.S. veteran smokers as a whole (63,159 males) have converged only slightly toward those of never-smokers, from RR = 1.65 (1.58-1.72) during 1954-1959 to RR = 1.61 (1.58-1.63) during 1954-1979. The lung cancer death rates for 1954/57 smokers as a whole have not converged toward those of never-smokers, with RR = 10.89 (7.70-15.41) during 1954-1959 and RR = 11.10 (9.78-12.61) during 1954-1979. The total death rates for the 1971-1975 NHEFS smokers as a whole (694 males and 1116 females) have not converged toward those of never-smokers. For males, RR = 1.92 (1.46-2.52) during 1971-1982 and RR = 1.96 (1.63-2.36) during 1971-1992; for females, RR = 1.79 (1.31-2.46) during 1971-1982 and RR = 1.79 (1.47-2.17) during 1971-1992. The lung cancer death rates have diverged, based on small numbers of deaths. For males, RR = 15.76 (2.06-120.61) during 1971-1982 and RR = 22.20 (5.31-92.92) during 1971-1992; for females, RR = 2.92 (0.57-15.06) during 1971-1982 and RR = 4.74 (1.94-11.59) during 1971-1992. These trends are contrary to the substantial convergence predicted by the death rate trends among U.S. veterans who were former smokers at the beginning of follow-up. While these results confirm that those former smokers who survive for at least 5 years experience death rates that converge toward those of never-smokers, they also indicate that a cohort of cigarette smokers that undergoes substantial cessation experiences a death rate that does not converge toward the death rate of never-smokers. The fact that there has been no convergence for lung cancer is quite surprising, as this is the disease most strongly linked to smoking and smoking cessation and less likely to be influenced by other lifestyle factors. Further investigation is needed for a complete understanding of the impact of smoking cessation.

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