Stroke incidence and survival among middle-aged adults: 9-year follow-up of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Although stroke mortality rates in the United States are well documented, assessment of incidence rates and case fatality are less well studied.

METHODS: A cohort of 15 792 men and women aged 45 to 64 years from a population sample of households in 4 US communities was followed from 1987 to 1995, an average of 7. 2 years. Incident strokes were identified through annual phone contacts and hospital record searching and were then validated.

RESULTS: Of the 267 incident definite or probable strokes, 83% (n=221) were categorized as ischemic strokes, 10% (n=27) were intracerebral hemorrhages, and 7% (n=19) were subarachnoid hemorrhages. The age-adjusted incidence rate (per 1000 person-years) of total strokes was highest among black men (4.44), followed by black women (3.10), white men (1.78), and white women (1.24). The black versus white age-adjusted rate ratio (RR) for ischemic stroke was 2.41 (95% CI, 1.85 to 3.15), which was attenuated to 1.38 (95% CI, 1.01 to 1.89) after adjustment for baseline hypertension, diabetes, education level, smoking status, and prevalent coronary heart disease. There was a tendency for the adjusted case fatality rates to be higher among blacks and men, although none of the case fatality comparisons across sex or race was statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS: After accounting for established baseline risk factors, blacks still had a 38% greater risk of incident ischemic stroke compared with whites. Identification of new individual and community-level risk factors accounting for the elevated incidence of stroke requires further investigation and incorporation into intervention planning.