Guessing

The World Health Organization (WHO) published its first Essential Medicines List (EML) in 1977, and it is updated biennially. One might reasonably think drugs on the EML are there because they are critical to effective, evidence-based patient care and intervention. One might not reasonably guess, however, that a particular drug's supply chain vulnerabilities that make it a shortage risk would contribute to a drug's listing on the EML. This commentary on a case first describes why the WHO makes the EML and suggests reasons why it might be important to consider a drug's shortage risk when revising and updating it...

Various interventions are used in practice to reduce prejudice against lesbian women and gay men. Often these have not been developed or evaluated for effectiveness by researchers. In this study, we used theory-based evaluation (TBE) to determine whether the assumptions underlying three types of interventions (knowledge interventions, guessing games, and theater and movie interventions) often used in practice in the Netherlands are in line with evidence from the scientific literature. As a first step, we consulted the developers of prominent examples of the three types of interventions on their assumptions about why their interventions would work to construct a theory of change for each type of intervention...

BACKGROUND: Shift workers, compared to day workers, are more likely to be diagnosed with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Currently, there is no tailored programme of dietary support available to either shift workers living with T2D or employers. METHODS: An intervention development consultation workshop was convened in June 2023 with the aim of evaluating potential interventions to identify those with a potential to take forward for further development. Findings from prior formative research into factors influencing dietary behaviour in shift workers with T2D were mapped to potential interventions addressing the barriers and enablers to healthy eating reported by shift workers with T2D...

When deciding whether to trust someone's claims, how do children combine-over multiple interactions-information about that person's general behavioral tendencies (traits) with that person's ongoing (and changing) rate of providing accurate claims? Children aged 4-8 played 11 rounds of a find-the-sticker game. For each round, an informant looked into two cups and made a claim about which cup held a sticker. Children guessed the sticker's location and the sticker's actual location was revealed. Prior to the game, children received information that the informant was either honest or dishonest...

Little is known about how perfectionistic adolescents experience social connection in online spaces. The current qualitative study addressed this gap by examining themes related to social (dis)connection in online and in-person settings from semistructured interviews with 43 adolescents ( M age = 15.16, SD = 2.43; 62.8% female; 58.1% white; 54.4% self-identified perfectionists). Results demonstrated that perfectionists expressed feeling less connected online than nonperfectionists, likely driven by heightened levels of interpersonal sensitivity...

Structure determination is necessary to identify unknown organic molecules, such as those in natural products, forensic samples, the interstellar medium, and laboratory syntheses. Rotational spectroscopy enables structure determination by providing accurate 3D information about small organic molecules via their moments of inertia. Using these moments, Kraitchman analysis determines isotopic substitution coordinates, which are the unsigned |x|, |y|, |z| coordinates of all atoms with natural isotopic abundance, including carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen...

Recently, several clinical studies have been conducted using microneedles (MNs), and various devices have been developed. This study aimed to propose and confirm the feasibility of a placebo control for activating MN clinical research. A 0.5 mm MN stamp with 42 needles was used as a treatment intervention, and a placebo stamp with four acupressure-type needles that did not penetrate was proposed and designed as a control for comparison. First, to check whether the placebo stamp did not invade the skin and to set an appropriate level of pressure to be provided during skin stimulation, two participants were stimulated with five different forces on the forearm, and then the skin was dyed...

The brain can be seen as a predictive system continuously computing prior information to guess posterior probabilities minimizing sources of uncertainty. To test this Bayesian view of the brain, event-related potentials (ERP) methods have been used focusing on the well-known P3 component, traditionally associated with decision-making processes and sources of uncertainty regarding target probability. Another ERP component linked with decision-making is the prefrontal P2 (pP2) component, which has never been considered within the Bayesian framework...

Item quality is crucial to psychometric analyses for cognitive diagnosis. In cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs), item quality is often quantified in terms of item parameters (e.g., guessing and slipping parameters). Calibrating the item parameters with only item response data, as a common practice, could result in challenges in identifying the cause of low-quality items (e.g., the correct answer is easy to be guessed) or devising an effective plan to improve the item quality. To resolve these challenges, we propose the item explanatory CDMs where the CDM item parameters are explained with item features such that item features can serve as an additional source of information for item parameters...

BACKGROUND: Observational data suggest that the 19-gauge (G) needle for endobronchial ultrasound (EBUS)-guided transbronchial needle aspiration (TBNA) offers a higher diagnostic yield in sarcoidosis than the 22-G needle. No randomized trial has compared the yield of the two needles. METHODS: We randomized consecutive subjects with suspected sarcoidosis and enlarged thoracic lymph nodes to undergo EBUS-TBNA with either the 19-G or the 22-G needle. We compared the study groups for diagnostic sensitivity (primary outcome) assessed by the yield of granulomas in subjects finally diagnosed with sarcoidosis...

INTRODUCTION: Understanding who accompanies children to clinic visits is necessary to engage stakeholders and tailor communication and educational materials. We undertook this study to describe the clinical companions for new patients in a general pediatric urology clinic. METHODS: This retrospective cross-sectional study included all new urology patients aged less than 18 y at a single freestanding quaternary care children's hospital in selected months of 2019 and 2022...

Laser ultrasonics (LU) is a non-contact and non-destructive method with a high data acquisition rate, making it a promising candidate for in-situ monitoring of defects in different additive manufacturing (AM) processes, including laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) and directed energy deposition, as well as final part inspection. In order to see the effect of various artificial defect types on an LU sub-surface reconstruction, AlSi10Mg samples with side through-holes, as well as Ti6Al4V samples with bottom blind holes and trapped powder were printed using LPBF, and then ultrasound B-scans of the samples were obtained using an LU system...

Could cooperation among strangers be facilitated by adaptations that use sparse information to accurately predict cooperative behaviour? We hypothesise that predictions are influenced by beliefs, descriptions, appearance and behavioural history available for first and second impressions. We also hypothesise that predictions improve when more information is available. We conducted a two-part study. First, we recorded thin-slice videos of university students just before their choices in a repeated Prisoner's Dilemma with matched partners...

A feature of the brains of intelligent animals is the ability to learn to respond to an ensemble of active neuronal inputs with a behaviorally appropriate ensemble of active neuronal outputs. Previously, a hypothesis was proposed on how this mechanism is implemented at the cellular level within the neocortical pyramidal neuron: the apical tuft or perisomatic inputs initiate "guess" neuron firings, while the basal dendrites identify input patterns based on excited synaptic clusters, with the cluster excitation strength adjusted based on reward feedback...

Australia, characterized by extensive and heterogeneous terrestrial ecosystems, plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle and in efforts to mitigate climate change. Prior research has quantified vegetation productivity and carbon balance within the Australian context over preceding decades. Nonetheless, the responses of vegetation and carbon dynamics to the evolving phenomena of climate change and escalating concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide remain ambiguous within the Australian landscape...

The purpose of this feasibility study is to investigate if latent diffusion models (LDMs) are capable to generate contrast enhanced (CE) MRI-derived subtraction maximum intensity projections (MIPs) of the breast, which are conditioned by lesions. We trained an LDM with n = 2832 CE-MIPs of breast MRI examinations of n = 1966 patients (median age: 50 years) acquired between the years 2015 and 2020. The LDM was subsequently conditioned with n = 756 segmented lesions from n = 407 examinations, indicating their location and BI-RADS scores...

Radiofrequency ablation has emerged as a widely accepted treatment for atherosclerotic plaques. However, monitoring the temperature field distribution in the blood vessel wall during this procedure presents challenges. This limitation increases the risk of endothelial cell damage and inflammatory responses, potentially leading to lumen restenosis. The aim of this study is to accurately reconstruct the transient temperature distribution by solving a stochastic heat transfer model with uncertain parameters using an inverse heat transfer algorithm and temperature measurement data...

IMPORTANCE: The lack of standardized genetics training in pediatrics residencies, along with a shortage of medical geneticists, necessitates innovative educational approaches. OBJECTIVE: To compare pediatric resident recognition of Kabuki syndrome (KS) and Noonan syndrome (NS) after 1 of 4 educational interventions, including generative artificial intelligence (AI) methods. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This comparative effectiveness study used generative AI to create images of children with KS and NS...

Due to the infinite summation of bubble diagrams, the GW approximation of Green's function perturbation theory has proven particularly effective in the weak correlation regime, where this family of Feynman diagrams is important. However, the performance of GW in multireference molecular systems, characterized by strong electron correlation, remains relatively unexplored. In the present study, we investigate the ability of GW to handle closed-shell multireference systems in their singlet ground state by examining four paradigmatic scenarios...

While humans sometimes do show the capability of correcting their own erroneous guesses with self-critiquing, there seems to be no basis for that assumption in the case of LLMs.