Richard J Sheppard, Oliver J Watson, Rachel Pieciak, James Lungu, Geoffrey Kwenda, Crispin Moyo, Stephen Longa Chanda, Gregory Barnsley, Nicholas F Brazeau, Ines C G Gerard-Ursin, Daniela Olivera Mesa, Charles Whittaker, Simon Gregson, Lucy C Okell, Azra C Ghani, William B MacLeod, Emanuele Del Fava, Alessia Melegaro, Jonas Z Hines, Lloyd B Mulenga, Patrick G T Walker, Lawrence Mwananyanda, Christopher J Gill
Reported COVID-19 cases and associated mortality remain low in many sub-Saharan countries relative to global averages, but true impact is difficult to estimate given limitations around surveillance and mortality registration. In Lusaka, Zambia, burial registration and SARS-CoV-2 prevalence data during 2020 allow estimation of excess mortality and transmission. Relative to pre-pandemic patterns, we estimate age-dependent mortality increases, totalling 3212 excess deaths (95% CrI: 2104-4591), representing an 18...
June 29, 2023: Nature Communications