Ariktha Srivathsan, Amza Abdou, Tawfik Al-Khatib, Sue-Chen Apadinuwe, Mouctar D Badiane, Victor Bucumi, Tina Chisenga, George Kabona, Martin Kabore, Sarjo Kebba Kanyi, Lucienne Bella, Nekoua M'po, Michael Masika, Abdellahi Minnih, Henis Mior Sitoe, Sailesh Mishra, Nicholas Olobio, Fatma Juma Omar, Isaac Phiri, Salimato Sanha, Fikre Seife, Shekhar Sharma, Rabebe Tekeraoi, Lamine Traore, Titus Watitu, Yak Yak Bol, Anna Borlase, Michael S Deiner, Kristen K Renneker, P J Hooper, Paul M Emerson, Andreia Vasconcelos, Benjamin F Arnold, Travis C Porco, T Déirdre Hollingsworth, Thomas M Lietman, Seth Blumberg
Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022...
April 25, 2024: Clinical Infectious Diseases