Systems model population health

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading cause of death worldwide, with 80% of these deaths occurring in low-middle income countries (LMICs). In Ghana and across Africa, CVDs have emerged as the leading causes of death primarily due to undetected and under treated hypertension, yet less than 5% of resources allocated to health in these resource-poor countries go into non-communicable diseases (NCD) including CVD prevention and management. Consequently, most countries in Africa do not have contextually appropriate and sustainable health system framework to prevent, detect and manage CVD to achieve Universal Health Coverage (UHC) in CVD care through improved Primary Health Care (PHC) with the aim of achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) in CVD/NCD...

Butyrate-producing bacteria are found in many outdoor ecosystems and host organisms, including humans, and are vital to ecosystem functionality and human health. These bacteria ferment organic matter, producing the short-chain fatty acid butyrate. However, the macroecological influences on their biogeographical distribution remain poorly resolved. Here we aimed to characterise their global distribution together with key explanatory climatic, geographical and physicochemical variables. We developed new normalised butyrate production capacity (BPC) indices derived from global metagenomic ( n  = 13,078) and Australia-wide soil 16S rRNA ( n  = 1331) data, using Geographic Information System (GIS) and modelling techniques to detail their ecological and biogeographical associations...

Infectious zoonotic disease emergence, through spillover events, is of global concern and has the potential to cause significant harm to society, as recently demonstrated by COVID-19. More than 70% of the 400 infectious diseases that emerged in the past five decades have a zoonotic origin, including all recent pandemics. There have been several approaches used to predict the risk of spillover through some of the known or suspected infectious disease emergence drivers, largely using correlative approaches. Here, we predict the spatial distribution of spillover risk by approximating general transmission through animal and human interactions...

INTRODUCTION: Inconsistencies of reports contributes to the underreporting of Alzheimer's disease (AD) on death certificates. Whether underreporting exists within South Carolina has not been studied. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, population-based study on a cohort of persons ( N  = 78,534) previously diagnosed with AD and died between 2014-2019. We linked vital records with the South Carolina Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias Registry to investigate their cause of death and survival rates...

BACKGROUND: Mild Cognitive impairment (MCI) is a pre-demented state in the elderly populace. The Mediterranean & Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay (MIND) diet has shown promise in reducing the risk of MCI and Alzheimer's disease in older people. Notably, the existing MIND diet is not adapted to the specific needs of older adults in Malaysia, considering distinct food cultures and availability. Consequently, this study aimed to develop the Malaysian version of the MIND diet (MY-MINDD) scores and investigate their association with MCI in the older adult populace of Malaysia...

Zika, a viral disease transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes, emerged in the Americas in 2015, causing large-scale epidemics. Colombia alone reported over 72,000 Zika cases between 2015 and 2016. Using national surveillance data from 1121 municipalities over 70 weeks, we identified sociodemographic and environmental factors associated with Zika's emergence, re-emergence, persistence, and transmission intensity in Colombia. We fitted a zero-state Markov-switching model under the Bayesian framework, assuming Zika switched between periods of presence and absence according to spatially and temporally varying probabilities of emergence/re-emergence (from absence to presence) and persistence (from presence to presence)...

OBJECTIVE: We assessed three cochlear implant (CI) suppliers: Advanced Bionics, Cochlear Limited, and MED-EL, for implant revision requiring reoperation after CI placement. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of integrated-health-system database between 2010 and 2021. Separate models were created for pediatric (age <18) and adult (age ≥18) cohorts. PATIENTS: Pediatric (age <18) and adult (age ≥18) patients undergoing cochlear implantation within our integrated healthcare system...

INTRODUCTION: In the USA, minoritised communities (racial and ethnic) have suffered disproportionately from COVID-19 compared with non-Hispanic white communities. In a large cohort of patients hospitalised for COVID-19 in a healthcare system spanning five adult hospitals, we analysed outcomes of patients based on race and ethnicity. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort analysis of patients 18 years or older admitted to five hospitals in the mid-Atlantic area between 4 March 2020 and 27 May 2022 with confirmed COVID-19...

BACKGROUND: The evidence on the benefits and drawbacks of involving neurosurgical residents in the care of patients who undergo neurosurgical procedures is heterogeneous. We assessed the effect of neurosurgical residency programs on the outcomes of such patients in a large single-payer public health care system. METHODS: Ten population-based cohorts of adult patients in Ontario who received neurosurgical care from 2013 to 2017 were identified on the basis of procedural codes, and the cohorts were followed in administrative health data sources...

Being a crucial element for technological development, praseodymium (Pr) has been increasingly used, leading to a rise in its concentration in aquatic systems. However, its potential threats to organisms remain poorly understood. Besides contamination, organisms are also threatened by climate change-related factors, including warming. It is important to evaluate how climate change-related factors may influence the effects of contaminants. To address this, histopathological and biochemical analyses were performed in adult mussels of Mytilus galloprovincialis, following a 28-day exposure to Pr (10 μg/L) and warming (4 °C increase) separately, and in combination...

The coal-dominated electricity system, alongside increasing industrial electricity demand, places China into a dilemma between industrialization and environmental impacts. A practical solution is to exploit air quality and health cobenefits of industrial energy efficiency measures, which has not yet been integrated into China's energy transition strategy. This research examines the pivotal role of industrial electricity savings in accelerating coal plant retirements and assesses the nexus of energy-pollution-health by modeling nationwide coal-fired plants at individual unit level...

This study explores the vaccine prioritization strategy to reduce the overall burden of the pandemic when the supply is limited. Existing vaccine distribution methods focus on macro-level or simplified micro-level assuming homogeneous behavior within populations without considering mobility patterns. Directly applying these models for micro-level vaccine allocation leads to sub-optimal solutions. To address the issue, we first proposed a Trans-vaccine-SEIR model to incorporate mobility heterogeneity in disease propagation...

The fee-for-service funding model for US emergency department (ED) clinician groups is increasingly fragile. Traditional fee-for-service payment systems offer no financial incentives to improve quality, address population health, or make value-based clinical decisions. Fee-for-service also does not support maintaining ED capacity to handle peak demand periods. In fee-for-service, clinicians rely heavily on cross-subsidization, where high reimbursement from commercial payors offsets low reimbursement from government payors and the uninsured...

INTRODUCTION: There is an urgent need to address pervasive inequities in health and healthcare in the USA. Many areas of health inequity are well known, but there remain important unexplored areas, and for many populations in the USA, accessing data to visualize and monitor health equity is difficult. METHODS: We describe the development and evaluation of an open-source, R-Shiny application, the "Health Equity Explorer (H2E)," designed to enable users to explore health equity data in a way that can be easily shared within and across common data models (CDMs)...

The population of children requiring intensive care in Victoria has increased and changed markedly since the 1990s, the result of many epidemiological, demographic, and social changes, and this is more evident during and after the Covid pandemic. The model of ultra-centralised paediatric intensive care services in the 1990s is not sufficient for the current era, and services are under daily pressure. Solutions will take time and need to be wide-ranging, including increased critical care capacity in selected regional centres, decentralisation of some services for low-risk conditions, improvements and reforms in medical and nursing education, pre-service and post-graduate, including for other acute care disciplines and for general practitioners and a more structured state-wide paediatric system...

Intersectional multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (I-MAIHDA) is an innovative approach for investigating inequalities, including intersectional inequalities in health, disease, psychosocial, socioeconomic, and other outcomes. I-MAIHDA and related MAIHDA approaches have conceptual and methodological advantages over conventional single-level regression analysis. By enabling the study of inequalities produced by numerous interlocking systems of marginalization and oppression, and by addressing many of the limitations of studying interactions in conventional analyses, intersectional MAIHDA provides a valuable analytical tool in social epidemiology, health psychology, precision medicine and public health, environmental justice, and beyond...

Vaccine efficacy and its quantification is a crucial concept for the proper design of public health vaccination policies. In this work we proposed a mathematical model to estimate the efficacy of the influenza vaccine in a real-word scenario. In particular, our model is a SEIR-type epidemiological model, which distinguishes vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Mathematically, its dynamics is governed by a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations, where the non-linearity arises from the effective contacts between susceptible and infected individuals...

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant public health challenge in China. Early detection and diagnosis of TB cases are crucial to interrupt disease transmission and prevent its progression. This study aims to describe the delay in seeking care and diagnosis among patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and identify the influencing factors in two counties in Beijing. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was carried out to investigate care-seeking and diagnosis delay in two counties in Beijing...

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common chronic liver disease, affecting 25-30% of the general population globally. The condition is even more prevalent in individuals with obesity and is frequently linked to the metabolic syndrome. Given the known associations between the metabolic syndrome and common mental health issues, it is likely that such a relationship also exists between NAFLD and mental health problems. However, studies in this field remain limited...

BACKGROUND: Long COVID is a major problem affecting patient health, the health service, and the workforce. To optimise the design of future interventions against COVID-19, and to better plan and allocate health resources, it is critical to quantify the health and economic burden of this novel condition. We aimed to evaluate and estimate the differences in health impacts of long COVID across sociodemographic categories and quantify this in Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs), widely used measures across health systems...