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Early warning systems

D E Goldberg, D Melgar, Y Bock, R M Allen
The moment evolution of large earthquakes is a subject of fundamental interest to both basic and applied seismology. Specifically, an open problem is when in the rupture process a large earthquake exhibits features dissimilar from those of a lesser magnitude event. The answer to this question is of importance for rapid, reliable estimation of earthquake magnitude, a major priority of earthquake and tsunami early warning systems. Much effort has been made to test whether earthquakes are deterministic, meaning that observations in the first few seconds of rupture can be used to predict the final rupture extent...
November 2018: Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth
Felix Rembold, Michele Meroni, Ferdinando Urbano, Gabor Csak, Hervé Kerdiles, Ana Perez-Hoyos, Guido Lemoine, Olivier Leo, Thierry Negre
Monitoring crop and rangeland conditions is highly relevant for early warning and response planning in food insecure areas of the world. Satellite remote sensing can obtain relevant and timely information in such areas where ground data are scattered, non-homogenous, or frequently unavailable. Rainfall estimates provide an outlook of the drivers of vegetation growth, whereas time series of satellite-based biophysical indicators at high temporal resolution provide key information about vegetation status in near real-time and over large areas...
January 2019: Agricultural Systems
Nidhi Singh, Alaa Mhawish, Santu Ghosh, Tirthankar Banerjee, R K Mall
Climate extremes are often associated with increased human mortality and such association varies considerably with space and time. We therefore, aimed to systematically investigate the effects of temperature extremes, daily means and diurnal temperature variations (DTV) on mortality in the city of Varanasi, India during 2009-2016. Time series data on daily mortality, air quality (SO2 , NO2 , O3 and PM10 ) and weather variables were obtained from the routinely collected secondary sources. A semiparametric quasi-Poisson regression model estimated the effects of temperature extremes on daily all-cause mortality adjusting nonlinear confounding effects of time trend, relative humidity and air pollution; stratified by seasons...
February 7, 2019: Science of the Total Environment
R Isaacs, G Smith, L Gale-Andrews, M Wee, E van Teijlingen, D Bick, V Hundley
BACKGROUND: Paper-based charts remain the principal means of documenting the vital signs of hospitalised pregnant and postnatal women. However, poor chart design may contribute to both incorrect charting of data and clinical responses. We decided to identify design faults that might have an adverse clinical impact. METHODS: One hundred and twenty obstetric early warning charts and escalation protocols from consultant-led maternity units in the United Kingdom and the Channel Islands were analysed using an objective and systematic approach...
January 8, 2019: International Journal of Obstetric Anesthesia
D J Saunders, L Bleasdale, L Summerton, A Hancock, S Homer-Vanniasinkam, D A Russell
OBJECTIVES: To assess the ability of a novel, automated CE marked vascular early warning system (VEWS) device to detect peripheral arterial disease in patients with incompressible ankle arteries and non-measurable ankle brachial pressure index (ABPI) secondary to diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Recruited patients had diabetes, recent MRA evidence of PAD and incompressible vessels on ABPI. VEWS indices of each leg were automatically calculated by employing optical infrared and red sensors applied to the foot with readings obtained with the subject's leg both flat and elevated...
February 12, 2019: Annals of Vascular Surgery
Qian Zhang, Mengmeng Zhou, Yuwei Yang, Enqing You, Jinju Wu, Wenyan Zhang, Jing Jin, Fen Huang
BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a major public health issue in China with a high burden of reinfection. Previous studies presented evidence of the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD incidence, but no study examined the effects of extreme meteorological factors on HFMD reinfection. METHODS: Daily HFMD reinfection counts and meteorological data of Hefei city were collected from 2011 to 2016. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to quantify the effects of extreme weather (wind speed, sunshine duration, and precipitation) on HFMD reinfection...
February 25, 2019: Science of the Total Environment
Evgeni Brotfain, Yoram Klein, Ronen Toledano, Micha Yitzhak Shamir, Leonid Koyfman, Uri Barak, Tamar Guttmann, Alexander Zlotnik, Moti Klein
PURPOSE: Dynamic changes in urine output and neurological status are the recognized clinical signs of hemodynamically significant hemorrhage. In the present study, we analyzed the dynamic minute-to-minute changes in the UFR and also the changes in its minute-to-minute variability in a group of critically ill multiple trauma patients whose blood pressures were normal on admission to the ICU but who subsequently developed hypotension within the first few hours of their ICU admission. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study was retrospective and observational...
February 13, 2019: European Journal of Trauma and Emergency Surgery: Official Publication of the European Trauma Society
Neil Brimblecombe, Haddy Quist, Fiona Nolan
INTRODUCTION: Technological innovation offers opportunities to improve mental health care, however, little evidence exists regarding attitudes of inpatient staff and patients to such changes. We present a survey of staff and patients prior to introduction of a digital version of the National Early Warning Score (eNEWS) system for identifying physical deterioration. AIM: To collate views of staff and inpatients related to prospective use of eNEWS, to inform the plan for implementation...
February 11, 2019: Journal of Psychiatric and Mental Health Nursing
Timothy J Bartley, Kevin S McCann, Carling Bieg, Kevin Cazelles, Monica Granados, Matthew M Guzzo, Andrew S MacDougall, Tyler D Tunney, Bailey C McMeans
Climate change is asymmetrically altering environmental conditions in space, from local to global scales, creating novel heterogeneity. Here, we argue that this novel heterogeneity will drive mobile generalist consumer species to rapidly respond through their behaviour in ways that broadly and predictably reorganize - or rewire - food webs. We use existing theory and data from diverse ecosystems to show that the rapid behavioural responses of generalists to climate change rewire food webs in two distinct and critical ways...
February 11, 2019: Nature Ecology & Evolution
Thorsten Rings, Mahmood Mazarei, Amin Akhshi, Christian Geier, M Reza Rahimi Tabar, Klaus Lehnertz
Extreme events occur in a variety of natural, technical, and societal systems and often have catastrophic consequences. Their low-probability, high-impact nature has recently triggered research into improving our understanding of generating mechanisms, providing early warnings as well as developing control strategies. For the latter to be effective, knowledge about dynamical resistance of a system prior to an extreme event is of utmost importance. Here we introduce a novel time-series-based and non-perturbative approach to efficiently monitor dynamical resistance and apply it to high-resolution observations of brain activities from 43 subjects with uncontrollable epileptic seizures...
February 11, 2019: Scientific Reports
Gökhan Torun, Vahide Aslihan Durak
INTRODUCTION: Posttraumatic injuries are among the most frequent reasons of admission to emergency room services (ERs). In the first assessment of the cases, ATLS protocols recommends use of triage decision scheme consisting of parametres of abnormal physiologic findings, anatomic injury site, pathogenic mechanism of injury, concomitant diseases and conditions, and activation of trauma teams in line with these criteria. The aim of this study is to evaluate TEWS(Triage Early Warning Score) as a marker for predicting mortality in trauma patients who presented to Emergency Services...
February 4, 2019: Annali Italiani di Chirurgia
Calvin J Chiew, Nan Liu, Takashi Tagami, Ting Hway Wong, Zhi Xiong Koh, Marcus E H Ong
Early identification of high-risk septic patients in the emergency department (ED) may guide appropriate management and disposition, thereby improving outcomes. We compared the performance of machine learning models against conventional risk stratification tools, namely the Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), and our previously described Singapore ED Sepsis (SEDS) model, in the prediction of 30-day in-hospital mortality (IHM) among suspected sepsis patients in the ED...
February 2019: Medicine (Baltimore)
Maria Grazia Dente, Flavia Riccardo, Francesco Bolici, Nello Augusto Colella, Verica Jovanovic, Mitra Drakulovic, Milena Vasic, Habiba Mamlouk, Latifa Maazaoui, Mondher Bejaoui, Khatuna Zakhashvili, Irine Kalandadze, Paata Imnadze, Silvia Declich
BACKGROUND: In the Mediterranean and Black Sea Region, arbovirus infections are emerging infectious diseases. Their surveillance can benefit from one health inter-sectoral collaboration; however, no standardized methodology exists to study One Health surveillance. METHODS: We designed a situation analysis study to document how integration of laboratory/clinical human, animal and entomological surveillance of arboviruses was being implemented in the Region. We applied a framework designed to assess three levels of integration: policy/institutional, data collection/data analysis and dissemination...
February 5, 2019: Zoonoses and Public Health
Hamidreza Aghababaeian, Ladan Araghi Ahvazi, Abbas Ostadtaghizadeh
Aims: To present epidemiological data, probable causes and lessons learned from the outbreak of methanol poisoning in Iran in September 2018, and relate this to the increasing incidence of methanol poisoning worldwide over recent decades. Method: Analysis of all available reliable field information, official news reports and reports from the country's forensic medicine organization and the Ministry of Health. Results: Overall, 768 people in Iran were documented as poisoned from September 7 to October 7 2018 by consuming an informal alcohol containing methanol, of whom 76 died (10...
January 31, 2019: Alcohol and Alcoholism: International Journal of the Medical Council on Alcoholism
Samuel Cykert, Eugenia Eng, Paul Walker, Matthew A Manning, Linda B Robertson, Rohan Arya, Nora S Jones, Dwight E Heron
BACKGROUND: Advances in early diagnosis and curative treatment have reduced high mortality rates associated with non-small cell lung cancer. However, racial disparity in survival persists partly because Black patients receive less curative treatment than White patients. METHODS: We performed a 5-year pragmatic, trial at five cancer centers using a system-based intervention. Patients diagnosed with early stage lung cancer, aged 18-85 were eligible. Intervention components included: (1) a real-time warning system derived from electronic health records, (2) race-specific feedback to clinical teams on treatment completion rates, and (3) a nurse navigator...
February 4, 2019: Cancer Medicine
Jian-Yun Lu, Zong-Qiu Chen, Yan-Hui Liu, Wen-Hui Liu, Yu Ma, Tie-Gang Li, Zhou-Bin Zhang, Zhi-Cong Yang
OBJECTIVE: To explore the relationship between meteorological factors and scarlet fever incidence from 2006 to 2017 in Guangzhou, the largest subtropical city of Southern China, and assist public health prevention and control measures. METHODS: Data for weekly scarlet fever incidence and meteorological variables from 2006 to 2017 in Guangzhou were collected from the National Notifiable Disease Report System (NNDRS) and the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau (GZMB)...
January 25, 2019: Science of the Total Environment
Dong Li, Juan Sun, Qin Cao, Yichao Chen, Xiaofeng Liu, Yi Ran
Vegetable waste (VW) is highly perishable and susceptible to acidification during anaerobic digestion, which inhibits biogas production. Effective process monitoring, diagnosis and control are necessary to maintain stable anaerobic digestion at a high organic loading rate (OLR). Continuous mesophilic digestion was conducted at OLRs of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, 3.5 and 4.0 g volatile solids (VS)/(L d) with effluent recirculation (ER) in a reactor with total volume of 70 L. The effectiveness of three early warning indicators was validated...
February 1, 2019: Biodegradation
Dipanjan Naha, S Sathyakumar, Suraj Dash, Abhishek Chettri, G S Rawat
It is of utmost importance to research on the spatial patterns of human-wildlife conflicts to understand the underlying mechanism of such interactions, i.e. major land use changes and prominent ecological drivers. In the north eastern part of India there has been a disparity between nature, economic development and fragmentation of wildlife habitats leading to intense conflicts between humans and Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in recent times. Both the elephant and human population have increased in the past few decades with large tracts of forests converted to commercial tea plantations, army camps and human settlements...
2019: PloS One
Xiaojun Wei, Haoli Ma, Ruining Liu, Yan Zhao
This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the rapid acute physiology score (RAPS), the rapid emergency medicine score (REMS), and the modified early warning score (MEWS) in predicting the outcomes of adult patients presenting to the emergency department (ED).A retrospective review was undertaken between February 2014 and February 2018 in an adult ED of a 3300-bed university hospital. The RAPS, REMS, and MEWS were calculated to assess their capability to predict hospital admission, length of hospital stay, and in-hospital mortality, using area under receiver operating characteristic analysis...
February 2019: Medicine (Baltimore)
O Boyarchuk, L Volyanska, T Kosovska, A Lewandowicz-Uszynska, M Kinash
Primary immunodeficiency diseases (PID) are a group of more than 300 rare, chronic disorders in which a part of the body's immune system is missing or functions improperly. The issue of early diagnosis, timely and effective treatment, prevention of complications and improved prognosis remains extremely relevant. The aim of this study was to assess the awareness of graduating medical university students about the signs of primary immunodeficiency in children and adults. A survey on awareness of primary immunodeficiencies was conducted among sixth year (graduating) students of the Faculty of Medicine of I...
December 2018: Georgian Medical News
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