Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period...

BACKGROUND: WHO has proposed elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) by 2030. More than 99% of cases of onchocerciasis are in sub-Saharan Africa. Vector control and mass drug administration of ivermectin have been the main interventions for many years, with varying success. We aimed to identify factors associated with elimination of onchocerciasis transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis we searched for published articles reporting epidemiological or entomological assessments of onchocerciasis transmission status in sub-Saharan Africa, with or without vector control...

BACKGROUND: Patients with COVID-19 that had diagnosed chronic diseases - including diabetes - may experience higher rates of hospitalisation and mortality relative to the general population. However, the burden of undiagnosed co-morbidities during the pandemic has not been adequately studied. METHODS: We developed a model to estimate the hospitalisation and mortality burden of patients with COVID-19 that had undiagnosed type 1 and type 2 diabetes (UD). The retrospective analytical modelling framework was informed by country-level demographic, epidemiological and COVID-19 data and parameters...

Individual participant data meta-analysis is a commonly used alternative to the traditional aggregate data meta-analysis. It is popular because it avoids relying on published results and enables direct adjustment for relevant covariates. However, a practical challenge is that the studies being combined often vary in terms of the potential confounders that were measured. Furthermore, it will inevitably be the case that some individuals have missing values for some of those covariates. In this paper, we demonstrate how these challenges can be resolved using a propensity score approach, combined with multiple imputation, as a strategy to adjust for covariates in the context of individual participant data meta-analysis...

BACKGROUND: Immunization is a cornerstone of public health. Despite great success, China's National Immunization Program (NIP) faces challenges, such as the integration of several World Health Organization-recommended vaccines and other systemic issues. The Innovation Laboratory for Vaccine Delivery Research (VaxLab), supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and established in 2021 at Duke Kunshan University, focuses on enhancing China's NIP through research and policy advocacy...

BACKGROUND: Prevention of Plasmodium vivax malaria recurrence is essential for malaria elimination in Brazil. We evaluated the real-world effectiveness of an updated treatment algorithm for P vivax radical cure in the Brazilian Amazon. METHODS: In this non-interventional observational study, we used retrospective data from the implementation of a P vivax treatment algorithm at 43 health facilities in Manaus and Porto Velho, Brazil. The treatment algorithm consisted of chloroquine (25 mg/kg over 3 days) and point-of-care quantitative glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) testing followed by single-dose tafenoquine 300 mg (G6PD normal, aged ≥16 years, not pregnant and not breastfeeding), 7-day primaquine 0·5 mg/kg per day (G6PD intermediate or normal, aged ≥6 months, not pregnant, and not breastfeeding or breastfeeding for >1 month), or primaquine 0·75 mg/kg per week for 8 weeks (G6PD deficient, aged ≥6 months, not pregnant, and not breastfeeding or breastfeeding for >1 month)...

BACKGROUND: Detection of anaemia is crucial for clinical medicine and public health. Current WHO anaemia definitions are based on statistical thresholds (fifth centiles) set more than 50 years ago. We sought to establish evidence for the statistical haemoglobin thresholds for anaemia that can be applied globally and inform WHO and clinical guidelines. METHODS: In this analysis we identified international data sources from populations in the USA, England, Australia, China, the Netherlands, Canada, Ecuador, and Bangladesh with sufficient clinical and laboratory information collected between 1998 and 2020 to obtain a healthy reference sample...

BACKGROUND: Low birthweight (LBW; <2500 g) is an important predictor of health outcomes throughout the life course. We aimed to update country, regional, and global estimates of LBW prevalence for 2020, with trends from 2000, to assess progress towards global targets to reduce LBW by 30% by 2030. METHODS: For this systematic analysis, we searched population-based, nationally representative data on LBW from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2020. Using 2042 administrative and survey datapoints from 158 countries and areas, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical regression model incorporating country-specific intercepts, time-varying covariates, non-linear time trends, and bias adjustments based on data quality...

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of BCG vaccine for adult pulmonary tuberculosis remains uncertain. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effect of vaccination with BCG-Denmark to prevent initial and sustained interferon-γ release assay conversion in Brazilian health-care workers. METHODS: This substudy is a nested randomised controlled trial embedded within the BRACE trial (NCT04327206). Specifically, this substudy enrolled Brazilian health-care workers (aged ≥18 years) from three sites in Brazil (Manaus, Campo Grande, and Rio de Janeiro) irrespective of previously receiving BCG vaccination...

BACKGROUND: Novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) has been engineered to improve the genetic stability of Sabin oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and reduce the emergence of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses. This trial aimed to provide key safety and immunogenicity data required for nOPV2 licensure and WHO prequalification. METHODS: This phase 3 trial recruited infants aged 18 to <52 weeks and young children aged 1 to <5 years in The Gambia. Infants randomly assigned to receive one or two doses of one of three lots of nOPV2 or one lot of bivalent OPV (bOPV)...

BACKGROUND: Ciprofloxacin is the first-line drug for treating typhoid fever in many countries in Africa with a high disease burden, but the emergence of non-susceptibility poses a challenge to public health programmes. Through enhanced surveillance as part of vaccine evaluation, we investigated the occurrence and potential determinants of ciprofloxacin non-susceptibility in Blantyre, Malawi. METHODS: We conducted systematic surveillance of typhoid fever cases and antibiotic prescription in two health centres in Blantyre, Malawi, between Oct 1, 2016, and Oct 31, 2019, as part of the STRATAA and TyVAC studies...

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this narrative review is to discuss the current state of research funding in Brazil. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study is based on the most recent edition of the course Funding for Research and Innovation in the University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine which was a three-day course with 12 hours of instruction. The course brought together leading experts in the field to comprehensively discuss the current state of research funding in Brazil...

BACKGROUND: Neck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. METHODS: Systematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review...

BACKGROUND: The first randomised controlled trial of single-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine efficacy, the Kenya single-dose HPV-vaccine efficacy (KEN SHE) trial, showed greater than 97% efficacy against persistent HPV16 and HPV18 infection at 36 months among women in Kenya. We compared antibody responses after one dose of HPV vaccine in the Dose Reduction Immunobridging and Safety Study (DoRIS), the first randomised trial of the single- dose regimen in girls aged 9-14 years, the target age range for vaccination, with those after one dose of the same vaccine in KEN SHE...

BACKGROUND: Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is recommended for disease control in settings with moderate to high Plasmodium falciparum transmission and currently depends on the administration of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine. However, poor regimen adherence and the increased frequency of parasite mutations conferring sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance might threaten the effectiveness of SMC. Guidance is needed to de-risk the development of drug compounds for malaria prevention...

BACKGROUND: To achieve malaria elimination, Brazil must implement Plasmodium vivax radical cure. We aimed to investigate the operational feasibility of point-of-care, quantitative, glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) testing followed by chloroquine plus tafenoquine or primaquine. METHODS: This non-interventional, observational study was done at 43 health facilities in Manaus (Amazonas State) and Porto Velho (Rondônia State), Brazil, implementing a new P vivax treatment algorithm incorporating point-of-care quantitative G6PD testing to identify G6PD status and single-dose tafenoquine (G6PD normal, aged ≥16 years, and not pregnant or breastfeeding) or primaquine (intermediate or normal G6PD, aged ≥6 months, not pregnant, or breastfeeding >1 month)...

BACKGROUND: Quantifying contributions of environmental faecal contamination to child diarrhoea and growth faltering can illuminate causal mechanisms behind modest health benefits in recent water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) trials. We aimed to assess associations between environmental detection of enteropathogens and human or animal microbial source tracking markers (MSTM) and subsequent child health outcomes. METHODS: In this individual participant data meta-analysis we searched we searched PubMed, Embase, CAB Direct Global Health, Agricultural and Environmental Science Database, Web of Science, and Scopus for WASH intervention studies with a prospective design and concurrent control that measured enteropathogens or MSTM in environmental samples, or both, and subsequently measured enteric infections, diarrhoea, or height-for-age Z-scores (HAZ) in children younger than 5 years...

BACKGROUND: Enteric fever, a systemic infection caused by Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi A, remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. Enteric fever is preventable through the provision of clean water and adequate sanitation and can be successfully treated with antibiotics. However, high levels of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) compromise the effectiveness of treatment. We provide estimates of the prevalence of AMR S Typhi and S Paratyphi A in 75 endemic countries, including 30 locations without data...

BACKGROUND: Cancers represent a challenging public health threat in Asia. This study examines the temporal patterns of incidence, mortality, disability and risk factors of 29 cancers in Asia in the last three decades. METHODS: The age, sex and year-wise estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 29 cancers for 49 Asian countries from 1990 through 2019 were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2019 study...

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are the recommended antimalarial drugs for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria. The recent emergence of artemisinin partial resistance (ART-R) in Rwanda, Uganda and Eritrea is of great concern. In Tanzania, a nationwide molecular malaria surveillance in 2021 showed a high prevalence of the Kelch13 (K13) 561H mutation in Plasmodium falciparum from the north-western region, close to the border with Rwanda and Uganda. This study was conducted in 2022 to evaluate the efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ) for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria and to confirm the presence of ART-R in Tanzania...