PLoS Computational Biology

Compartmental models that describe infectious disease transmission across subpopulations are central for assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, behavioral changes and seasonal effects on the spread of respiratory infections. We present a Bayesian workflow for such models, including four features: (1) an adjustment for incomplete case ascertainment, (2) an adequate sampling distribution of laboratory-confirmed cases, (3) a flexible, time-varying transmission rate, and (4) a stratification by age group...

Public health decisions must be made about when and how to implement interventions to control an infectious disease epidemic. These decisions should be informed by data on the epidemic as well as current understanding about the transmission dynamics. Such decisions can be posed as statistical questions about scientifically motivated dynamic models. Thus, we encounter the methodological task of building credible, data-informed decisions based on stochastic, partially observed, nonlinear dynamic models. This necessitates addressing the tradeoff between biological fidelity and model simplicity, and the reality of misspecification for models at all levels of complexity...

Cancer development is driven by an accumulation of a small number of driver genetic mutations that confer the selective growth advantage to the cell, while most passenger mutations do not contribute to tumor progression. The identification of these driver genes responsible for tumorigenesis is a crucial step in designing effective cancer treatments. Although many computational methods have been developed with this purpose, the majority of existing methods solely provided a single driver gene list for the entire cohort of patients, ignoring the high heterogeneity of driver events across patients...

Some aspects of cognition are more taxing than others. Accordingly, many people will avoid cognitively demanding tasks in favor of simpler alternatives. Which components of these tasks are costly, and how much, remains unknown. Here, we use a novel task design in which subjects request wages for completing cognitive tasks and a computational modeling procedure that decomposes their wages into the costs driving them. Using working memory as a test case, our approach revealed that gating new information into memory and protecting against interference are costly...

Many cognitive problems can be decomposed into series of subproblems that are solved sequentially by the brain. When subproblems are solved, relevant intermediate results need to be stored by neurons and propagated to the next subproblem, until the overarching goal has been completed. We will here consider visual tasks, which can be decomposed into sequences of elemental visual operations. Experimental evidence suggests that intermediate results of the elemental operations are stored in working memory as an enhancement of neural activity in the visual cortex...

Neural Cellular Automata (NCA) are a powerful combination of machine learning and mechanistic modelling. We train NCA to learn complex dynamics from time series of images and PDE trajectories. Our method is designed to identify underlying local rules that govern large scale dynamic emergent behaviours. Previous work on NCA focuses on learning rules that give stationary emergent structures. We extend NCA to capture both transient and stable structures within the same system, as well as learning rules that capture the dynamics of Turing pattern formation in nonlinear Partial Differential Equations (PDEs)...

Multiplex panel tests identify many individual pathogens at once, using a set of component tests. In some panels the number of components can be large. If the panel is detecting causative pathogens for a single syndrome or disease then we might estimate the burden of that disease by combining the results of the panel, for example determining the prevalence of pneumococcal pneumonia as caused by many individual pneumococcal serotypes. When we are dealing with multiplex test panels with many components, test error in the individual components of a panel, even when present at very low levels, can cause significant overall error...

Policy compression is a computational framework that describes how capacity-limited agents trade reward for simpler action policies to reduce cognitive cost. In this study, we present behavioral evidence that humans prefer simpler policies, as predicted by a capacity-limited reinforcement learning model. Across a set of tasks, we find that people exploit structure in the relationships between states, actions, and rewards to "compress" their policies. In particular, compressed policies are systematically biased towards actions with high marginal probability, thereby discarding some state information...

The brain produces diverse functions, from perceiving sounds to producing arm reaches, through the collective activity of populations of many neurons. Determining if and how the features of these exogenous variables (e.g., sound frequency, reach angle) are reflected in population neural activity is important for understanding how the brain operates. Often, high-dimensional neural population activity is confined to low-dimensional latent spaces. However, many current methods fail to extract latent spaces that are clearly structured by exogenous variables...

Relational cognition-the ability to infer relationships that generalize to novel combinations of objects-is fundamental to human and animal intelligence. Despite this importance, it remains unclear how relational cognition is implemented in the brain due in part to a lack of hypotheses and predictions at the levels of collective neural activity and behavior. Here we discovered, analyzed, and experimentally tested neural networks (NNs) that perform transitive inference (TI), a classic relational task (if A > B and B > C, then A > C)...

Intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs) are segments of proteins without stable three-dimensional structures. As this flexibility allows them to interact with diverse binding partners, IDRs play key roles in cell signaling and gene expression. Despite the prevalence and importance of IDRs in eukaryotic proteomes and various biological processes, associating them with specific molecular functions remains a significant challenge due to their high rates of sequence evolution. However, by comparing the observed values of various IDR-associated properties against those generated under a simulated model of evolution, a recent study found most IDRs across the entire yeast proteome contain conserved features...

Myosin motors use the energy of ATP to produce force and directed movement on actin by a swing of the lever arm. ATP is hydrolysed during the off-actin re-priming transition termed recovery stroke. To provide an understanding of chemo-mechanical transduction by myosin, it is critical to determine how the reverse swing of the lever arm and ATP hydrolysis are coupled. Previous studies concluded that the recovery stroke of myosin II is initiated by closure of the Switch II loop in the nucleotide-binding site. Recently, we proposed that the recovery stroke of myosin VI starts with the spontaneous re-priming of the converter domain to a putative pre-transition state (PTS) intermediate that precedes Switch II closing and ATPase activation...

Genomes contain conserved non-coding sequences that perform important biological functions, such as gene regulation. We present a phylogenetic method, PhyloAcc-C, that associates nucleotide substitution rates with changes in a continuous trait of interest. The method takes as input a multiple sequence alignment of conserved elements, continuous trait data observed in extant species, and a background phylogeny and substitution process. Gibbs sampling is used to assign rate categories (background, conserved, accelerated) to lineages and explore whether the assigned rate categories are associated with increases or decreases in the rate of trait evolution...

Biochemical signaling pathways in living cells are often highly organized into spatially segregated volumes, membranes, scaffolds, subcellular compartments, and organelles comprising small numbers of interacting molecules. At this level of granularity stochastic behavior dominates, well-mixed continuum approximations based on concentrations break down and a particle-based approach is more accurate and more efficient. We describe and validate a new version of the open-source MCell simulation program (MCell4), which supports generalized 3D Monte Carlo modeling of diffusion and chemical reaction of discrete molecules and macromolecular complexes in solution, on surfaces representing membranes, and combinations thereof...

Target-mediated drug disposition (TMDD) is a phenomenon characterized by a drug's high-affinity binding to a target molecule, which significantly influences its pharmacokinetic profile within an organism. The comprehensive TMDD model delineates this interaction, yet it may become overly complex and computationally demanding in the absence of specific concentration data for the target or its complexes. Consequently, simplified TMDD models employing quasi-steady state approximations (QSSAs) have been introduced; however, the precise conditions under which these models yield accurate results require further elucidation...

Neural organoids model the development of the human brain and are an indispensable tool for studying neurodevelopment. Whole-organoid lineage tracing has revealed the number of progenies arising from each initial stem cell to be highly diverse, with lineage sizes ranging from one to more than 20,000 cells. This high variability exceeds what can be explained by existing stochastic models of corticogenesis and indicates the existence of an additional source of stochasticity. To explain this variability, we introduce the SAN model which distinguishes Symmetrically diving, Asymmetrically dividing, and Non-proliferating cells...

The circadian clock is an evolutionarily-conserved molecular oscillator that enables species to anticipate rhythmic changes in their environment. At a molecular level, the core clock genes induce circadian oscillations in thousands of genes in a tissue-specific manner, orchestrating myriad biological processes. While previous studies have investigated how the core clock circuit responds to environmental perturbations such as temperature, the downstream effects of such perturbations on circadian regulation remain poorly understood...

Trial-averaged metrics, e.g. tuning curves or population response vectors, are a ubiquitous way of characterizing neuronal activity. But how relevant are such trial-averaged responses to neuronal computation itself? Here we present a simple test to estimate whether average responses reflect aspects of neuronal activity that contribute to neuronal processing. The test probes two assumptions implicitly made whenever average metrics are treated as meaningful representations of neuronal activity: Reliability: Neuronal responses repeat consistently enough across trials that they convey a recognizable reflection of the average response to downstream regions...

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death globally, making the development of non-invasive and simple-to-use tools that bring insights into the state of the cardiovascular system of utmost importance. We investigated the possibility of using peripheral pulse wave recordings to estimate stroke volume (SV) and subject-specific parameters describing the selected properties of the cardiovascular system. Peripheral pressure waveforms were recorded in the radial artery using applanation tonometry (SphygmoCor) in 35 hemodialysis (HD) patients and 14 healthy subjects...

Prioritization or ranking of different cell types in a Single-cell RNA Sequencing (scRNA-Seq) framework can be performed in a variety of ways, some of these include: i) obtaining an indication of the proportion of cell types between the different conditions under study, ii) counting the number of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between cell types and conditions in the experiment or, iii) prioritizing cell types based on prior knowledge about the conditions under study (i.e., a specific disease). These methods have drawbacks and limitations thus novel methods for improving cell ranking are required...