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Agricultural Systems

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https://read.qxmd.com/read/30774185/asap-a-new-global-early-warning-system-to-detect-anomaly-hot-spots-of-agricultural-production-for-food-security-analysis
#1
Felix Rembold, Michele Meroni, Ferdinando Urbano, Gabor Csak, Hervé Kerdiles, Ana Perez-Hoyos, Guido Lemoine, Olivier Leo, Thierry Negre
Monitoring crop and rangeland conditions is highly relevant for early warning and response planning in food insecure areas of the world. Satellite remote sensing can obtain relevant and timely information in such areas where ground data are scattered, non-homogenous, or frequently unavailable. Rainfall estimates provide an outlook of the drivers of vegetation growth, whereas time series of satellite-based biophysical indicators at high temporal resolution provide key information about vegetation status in near real-time and over large areas...
January 2019: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30774184/from-extreme-weather-to-impacts-the-role-of-the-areas-of-concern-maps-in-the-jrc-mars-bulletin
#2
L Seguini, A Bussay, B Baruth
Each month the JRC issues the MARS Bulletin detailing the agro-meteorological and expert analysis underpinning the assessment of European crops' status and yield forecasts. In this context a resume is provided to give an overview on the geographical distribution of eventual crop damages. The MARS Bulletin provides such information in a set of synthetic maps (Areas of Concern), produced in each Bulletin, depicting extreme weather events and their impact on crops that have occurred in Europe during the analysis period...
January 2019: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30774183/performance-of-the-mars-crop-yield-forecasting-system-for-the-european-union-assessing-accuracy-in-season-and-year-to-year-improvements-from-1993-to-2015
#3
M van der Velde, L Nisini
19,980 crop yield forecasts have been published for the European Union (EU) Member States (MS) during 1993-2015 using the MARS-Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS). We assess the performance of these forecasts for soft wheat, durum wheat, grain maize, rapeseed, sunflower, potato and sugar beet, and sought to answer three questions. First, how good has the system performed? This was investigated by calculating several accuracy indicators (e.g. the mean absolute percentage error, MAPE) for the first forecasts during a season, forecasts one month pre-harvest, and the end-of-campaign (EOC) forecasts during 2006-2015 using reported yields...
January 2019: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30774182/using-reanalysis-in-crop-monitoring-and-forecasting-systems
#4
A Toreti, A Maiorano, G De Sanctis, H Webber, A C Ruane, D Fumagalli, A Ceglar, S Niemeyer, M Zampieri
Weather observations are essential for crop monitoring and forecasting but they are not always available and in some cases they have limited spatial representativeness. Thus, reanalyses represent an alternative source of information to be explored. In this study, we assess the feasibility of reanalysis-based crop monitoring and forecasting by using the system developed and maintained by the European Commission- Joint Research Centre, its gridded daily meteorological observations, the biased-corrected reanalysis AgMERRA and the ERA-Interim reanalysis...
January 2019: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30739979/mapping-nairobi-s-dairy-food-system-an-essential-analysis-for-policy-industry-and-research
#5
Stella Kiambi, Pablo Alarcon, Jonathan Rushton, Maurice K Murungi, Patrick Muinde, James Akoko, Gabriel Aboge, Stephen Gikonyo, Kelvin Momanyi, Erastus K Kang'ethe, Eric M Fèvre
Demand for dairy products in sub-Saharan Africa, is expected to triple by 2050, while limited increase in supply is predicted. This poses significant food security risk to low income households. Understanding how the dairy food system operates is essential to identify mitigation measures to food insecurity impact. This study aims to determine the structure and functionality of Nairobi's dairy system using a value chain mapping approach. Primary data were gathered through focus group discussions and key informant interviews with dairy value chain stakeholders in Nairobi to obtain qualitative information on people and products in the chains while describing their interactions and flows...
November 2018: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/29861535/can-bangladesh-produce-enough-cereals-to-meet-future-demand
#6
J Timsina, J Wolf, N Guilpart, L G J van Bussel, P Grassini, J van Wart, A Hossain, H Rashid, S Islam, M K van Ittersum
Bangladesh faces huge challenges in achieving food security due to its high population, diet changes, and limited room for expanding cropland and cropping intensity. The objective of this study is to assess the degree to which Bangladesh can be self-sufficient in terms of domestic maize, rice and wheat production by the years 2030 and 2050 by closing the existing gap (Yg) between yield potential (Yp) and actual farm yield (Ya), accounting for possible changes in cropland area. Yield potential and yield gaps were calculated for the three crops using well-validated crop models and site-specific weather, management and soil data, and upscaled to the whole country...
June 2018: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/29302132/improving-the-use-of-crop-models-for-risk-assessment-and-climate-change-adaptation
#7
Andrew J Challinor, Christoph Müller, Senthold Asseng, Chetan Deva, Kathryn Jane Nicklin, Daniel Wallach, Eline Vanuytrecht, Stephen Whitfield, Julian Ramirez-Villegas, Ann-Kristin Koehler
Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects...
January 2018: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/29302131/climate-smart-agriculture-farm-household-typologies-and-food-security-an-ex-ante-assessment-from-eastern-india
#8
Santiago Lopez-Ridaura, Romain Frelat, Mark T van Wijk, Diego Valbuena, Timothy J Krupnik, M L Jat
One of the great challenges in agricultural development and sustainable intensification is the assurance of social equity in food security oriented interventions. Development practitioners, researchers, and policy makers alike could benefit from prior insight into what interventions or environmental shocks might differentially affect farmers' food security status, in order to move towards more informed and equitable development. We examined the food security status and livelihood activities of 269 smallholder farm households (HHs) in Bihar, India...
January 2018: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/28867871/mapping-regional-risks-from-climate-change-for-rainfed-rice-cultivation-in-india
#9
Kuntal Singh, Colin J McClean, Patrick Büker, Sue E Hartley, Jane K Hill
Global warming is predicted to increase in the future, with detrimental consequences for rainfed crops that are dependent on natural rainfall (i.e. non-irrigated). Given that many crops grown under rainfed conditions support the livelihoods of low-income farmers, it is important to highlight the vulnerability of rainfed areas to climate change in order to anticipate potential risks to food security. In this paper, we focus on India, where ~ 50% of rice is grown under rainfed conditions, and we employ statistical models (climate envelope models (CEMs) and boosted regression trees (BRTs)) to map changes in climate suitability for rainfed rice cultivation at a regional level (~ 18 × 18 km cell resolution) under projected future (2050) climate change (IPCC RCPs 2...
September 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/28701818/toward-a-new-generation-of-agricultural-system-data-models-and-knowledge-products-state-of-agricultural-systems-science
#10
James W Jones, John M Antle, Bruno Basso, Kenneth J Boote, Richard T Conant, Ian Foster, H Charles J Godfray, Mario Herrero, Richard E Howitt, Sander Janssen, Brian A Keating, Rafael Munoz-Carpena, Cheryl H Porter, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Tim R Wheeler
We review the current state of agricultural systems science, focusing in particular on the capabilities and limitations of agricultural systems models. We discuss the state of models relative to five different Use Cases spanning field, farm, landscape, regional, and global spatial scales and engaging questions in past, current, and future time periods. Contributions from multiple disciplines have made major advances relevant to a wide range of agricultural system model applications at various spatial and temporal scales...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/28701817/towards-a-new-generation-of-agricultural-system-data-models-and-knowledge-products-design-and-improvement
#11
John M Antle, Bruno Basso, Richard T Conant, H Charles J Godfray, James W Jones, Mario Herrero, Richard E Howitt, Brian A Keating, Rafael Munoz-Carpena, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Pablo Tittonell, Tim R Wheeler
This paper presents ideas for a new generation of agricultural system models that could meet the needs of a growing community of end-users exemplified by a set of Use Cases. We envision new data, models and knowledge products that could accelerate the innovation process that is needed to achieve the goal of achieving sustainable local, regional and global food security. We identify desirable features for models, and describe some of the potential advances that we envisage for model components and their integration...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/28701816/brief-history-of-agricultural-systems-modeling
#12
James W Jones, John M Antle, Bruno Basso, Kenneth J Boote, Richard T Conant, Ian Foster, H Charles J Godfray, Mario Herrero, Richard E Howitt, Sander Janssen, Brian A Keating, Rafael Munoz-Carpena, Cheryl H Porter, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Tim R Wheeler
Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the "next generation" models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/28701815/next-generation-crop-models-a-modular-approach-to-model-early-vegetative-and-reproductive-development-of-the-common-bean-phaseolus-vulgaris-l
#13
C Hwang, M J Correll, S A Gezan, L Zhang, M S Bhakta, C E Vallejos, K J Boote, J A Clavijo-Michelangeli, J W Jones
The next generation of gene-based crop models offers the potential of predicting crop vegetative and reproductive development based on genotype and weather data as inputs. Here, we illustrate an approach for developing a dynamic modular gene-based model to simulate changes in main stem node numbers, time to first anthesis, and final node number on the main stem of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). In the modules, these crop characteristics are functions of relevant genes (quantitative trait loci (QTL)), the environment (E), and QTL × E interactions...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/28701814/modelling-the-impacts-of-pests-and-diseases-on-agricultural-systems
#14
M Donatelli, R D Magarey, S Bregaglio, L Willocquet, J P M Whish, S Savary
The improvement and application of pest and disease models to analyse and predict yield losses including those due to climate change is still a challenge for the scientific community. Applied modelling of crop diseases and pests has mostly targeted the development of support capabilities to schedule scouting or pesticide applications. There is a need for research to both broaden the scope and evaluate the capabilities of pest and disease models. Key research questions not only involve the assessment of the potential effects of climate change on known pathosystems, but also on new pathogens which could alter the (still incompletely documented) impacts of pests and diseases on agricultural systems...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/28701813/towards-a-new-generation-of-agricultural-system-data-models-and-knowledge-products-information-and-communication-technology
#15
Sander J C Janssen, Cheryl H Porter, Andrew D Moore, Ioannis N Athanasiadis, Ian Foster, James W Jones, John M Antle
Agricultural modeling has long suffered from fragmentation in model implementation. Many models are developed, there is much redundancy, models are often poorly coupled, model component re-use is rare, and it is frequently difficult to apply models to generate real solutions for the agricultural sector. To improve this situation, we argue that an open, self-sustained, and committed community is required to co-develop agricultural models and associated data and tools as a common resource. Such a community can benefit from recent developments in information and communications technology (ICT)...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/28701812/next-generation-data-systems-and-knowledge-products-to-support-agricultural-producers-and-science-based-policy-decision-making
#16
Susan M Capalbo, John M Antle, Clark Seavert
Research on next generation agricultural systems models shows that the most important current limitation is data, both for on-farm decision support and for research investment and policy decision making. One of the greatest data challenges is to obtain reliable data on farm management decision making, both for current conditions and under scenarios of changed bio-physical and socio-economic conditions. This paper presents a framework for the use of farm-level and landscape-scale models and data to provide analysis that could be used in NextGen knowledge products, such as mobile applications or personal computer data analysis and visualization software...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/28701811/next-generation-agricultural-system-data-models-and-knowledge-products-introduction
#17
John M Antle, James W Jones, Cynthia E Rosenzweig
Agricultural system models have become important tools to provide predictive and assessment capability to a growing array of decision-makers in the private and public sectors. Despite ongoing research and model improvements, many of the agricultural models today are direct descendants of research investments initially made 30-40 years ago, and many of the major advances in data, information and communication technology (ICT) of the past decade have not been fully exploited. The purpose of this Special Issue of Agricultural Systems is to lay the foundation for the next generation of agricultural systems data, models and knowledge products...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/28701810/next-generation-agricultural-system-models-and-knowledge-products-synthesis-and-strategy
#18
EDITORIAL
John M Antle, James W Jones, Cynthia Rosenzweig
The purpose of this Special Issue of Agricultural Systems is to lay the foundation for the next generation of agricultural systems data, models and knowledge products. In the Introduction to this Special Issue, we described a vision for accelerating the rate of agricultural innovation and meeting the growing global need for food and fiber. In this concluding article of the NextGen Special Issue we synthesize insights and formulate a strategy to advance data, models, and knowledge products that are consistent with this vision...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/28701809/yield-gap-analyses-to-estimate-attainable-bovine-milk-yields-and-evaluate-options-to-increase-production-in-ethiopia-and-india
#19
Dianne Mayberry, Andrew Ash, Di Prestwidge, Cécile M Godde, Ben Henderson, Alan Duncan, Michael Blummel, Y Ramana Reddy, Mario Herrero
Livestock provides an important source of income and nourishment for around one billion rural households worldwide. Demand for livestock food products is increasing, especially in developing countries, and there are opportunities to increase production to meet local demand and increase farm incomes. Estimating the scale of livestock yield gaps and better understanding factors limiting current production will help to define the technological and investment needs in each livestock sector. The aim of this paper is to quantify livestock yield gaps and evaluate opportunities to increase dairy production in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, using case studies from Ethiopia and India...
July 2017: Agricultural Systems
https://read.qxmd.com/read/28579671/losses-inefficiencies-and-waste-in-the-global-food-system
#20
Peter Alexander, Calum Brown, Almut Arneth, John Finnigan, Dominic Moran, Mark D A Rounsevell
Losses at every stage in the food system influence the extent to which nutritional requirements of a growing global population can be sustainably met. Inefficiencies and losses in agricultural production and consumer behaviour all play a role. This paper aims to understand better the magnitude of different losses and to provide insights into how these influence overall food system efficiency. We take a systems view from primary production of agricultural biomass through to human food requirements and consumption...
May 2017: Agricultural Systems
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