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Journals Journal of the Royal Statistic...

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)

https://read.qxmd.com/read/38222060/measuring-social-inclusion-in-europe-a-non-additive-approach-with-the-expert-preferences-of-public-policy-planners
#1
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Ludovico Carrino, Luca Farnia, Silvio Giove
This paper introduces a normative, expert-informed, time-dependent index of Social Inclusion for European administrative regions in five countries, using longitudinal data from Eurostat. Our contribution is twofold: first, our indicator is based on a non-additive aggregation operator (the Choquet Integral), which allows us to model many preferences' structures and to overcome the limitations embedded in other approaches. Second, we elicit the parameters of the aggregation operator from an expert panel of Italian policymakers in Social Policy, and Economics scholars...
January 2024: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/38145243/an-experimental-evaluation-of-a-stopping-rule-aimed-at-maximizing-cost-quality-trade-offs-in-surveys
#2
JOURNAL ARTICLE
James Wagner, Xinyu Zhang, Michael R Elliott, Brady T West, Stephanie M Coffey
Surveys face difficult choices in managing cost-error trade-offs. Stopping rules for surveys have been proposed as a method for managing these trade-offs. A stopping rule will limit effort on a select subset of cases to reduce costs with minimal harm to quality. Previously proposed stopping rules have focused on quality with an implicit assumption that all cases have the same cost. This assumption is unlikely to be true, particularly when some cases will require more effort and, therefore, more costs than others...
October 2023: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/38145242/a-practical-revealed-preference-model-for-separating-preferences-and-availability-effects-in-marriage-formation
#3
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Shuchi Goyal, Mark S Handcock, Heide M Jackson, Michael S Rendall, Fiona C Yeung
Many demographic problems require models for partnership formation. We consider a model for matchings within a bipartite population where individuals have utility for people based on observed and unobserved characteristics. It represents both the availability of potential partners of different types and the preferences of individuals for such people. We develop an estimator for the preference parameters based on sample survey data on partnerships and population composition. We conduct simulation studies based on the Survey of Income and Program Participation showing that the estimator recovers preference parameters that are invariant under different population availabilities and has the correct confidence coverage...
October 2023: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/38145241/estimating-sars-cov-2-seroprevalence
#4
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Samuel P Rosin, Bonnie E Shook-Sa, Stephen R Cole, Michael G Hudgens
Governments and public health authorities use seroprevalence studies to guide responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Seroprevalence surveys estimate the proportion of individuals who have detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. However, serologic assays are prone to misclassification error, and non-probability sampling may induce selection bias. In this paper, non-parametric and parametric seroprevalence estimators are considered that address both challenges by leveraging validation data and assuming equal probabilities of sample inclusion within covariate-defined strata...
October 2023: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37521824/multilevel-longitudinal-analysis-of-social-networks
#5
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Johan Koskinen, Tom A B Snijders
Stochastic actor-oriented models (SAOMs) are a modelling framework for analysing network dynamics using network panel data. This paper extends the SAOM to the analysis of multilevel network panels through a random coefficient model, estimated with a Bayesian approach. The proposed model allows testing theories about network dynamics, social influence, and interdependence of multiple networks. It is illustrated by a study of the dynamic interdependence of friendship networks and minor delinquency. Data were available for 126 classrooms in the first year of secondary school, of which 82 were used, containing relatively few missing data points and having not too much network turnover...
July 2023: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37261313/an-integrated-abundance-model-for-estimating-county-level-prevalence-of-opioid-misuse-in-ohio
#6
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Staci A Hepler, David M Kline, Andrea Bonny, Erin McKnight, Lance A Waller
Opioid misuse is a national epidemic and a significant drug related threat to the United States. While the scale of the problem is undeniable, estimates of the local prevalence of opioid misuse are lacking, despite their importance to policy-making and resource allocation. This is due, in part, to the challenge of directly measuring opioid misuse at a local level. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal abundance model that integrates indirect county-level data on opioid-related outcomes with state-level survey estimates on prevalence of opioid misuse to estimate the latent county-level prevalence and counts of people who misuse opioids...
January 2023: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/36883132/bayesian-multistate-modelling-of-incomplete-chronic-disease-burden-data
#7
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Christopher Jackson, Belen Zapata-Diomedi, James Woodcock
A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple diseases by age and gender. Generally, direct data on both incidence and case fatality are not available in every disease and setting. For example, we may know population mortality and prevalence rather than case fatality and incidence. This paper presents Bayesian continuous-time multistate models for estimating transition rates between disease states based on incomplete data...
January 2023: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37397280/when-the-ends-do-not-justify-the-means-learning-who-is-predicted-to-have-harmful-indirect-effects
#8
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Kara E Rudolph, Iván Díaz
There is a growing literature on finding rules by which to assign treatment based on an individual's characteristics such that a desired outcome under the intervention is maximized. A related goal entails identifying a subpopulation of individuals predicted to have a harmful indirect effect (the effect of treatment on an outcome through mediators), perhaps even in the presence of a predicted beneficial total treatment effect. In some cases, the implications of a likely harmful indirect effect may outweigh an anticipated beneficial total treatment effect, and would motivate further discussion of whether to treat identified individuals...
December 2022: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37064430/when-survey-science-met-web-tracking-presenting-an-error-framework-for-metered-data
#9
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Oriol J Bosch, Melanie Revilla
Metered data, also called web-tracking data, are generally collected from a sample of participants who willingly install or configure, onto their devices, technologies that track digital traces left when people go online (e.g., URLs visited). Since metered data allow for the observation of online behaviours unobtrusively, it has been proposed as a useful tool to understand what people do online and what impacts this might have on online and offline phenomena. It is crucial, nevertheless, to understand its limitations...
December 2022: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/36860267/estimating-the-number-of-persons-with-hiv-in-jails-via-web-scraping-and-record-linkage
#10
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Bonnie E Shook-Sa, Michael G Hudgens, Andrew L Kavee, David L Rosen
This paper presents methods to estimate the number of persons with HIV in North Carolina jails by applying finite population inferential approaches to data collected using web scraping and record linkage techniques. Administrative data are linked with web-scraped rosters of incarcerated persons in a nonrandom subset of counties. Outcome regression and calibration weighting are adapted for state-level estimation. Methods are compared in simulations and are applied to data from the US state of North Carolina...
December 2022: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/36777968/a-semiparametric-approach-to-model-based-sensitivity-analysis-in-observational-studies
#11
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Bo Zhang, Eric J Tchetgen Tchetgen
When drawing causal inference from observational data, there is almost always concern about unmeasured confounding. One way to tackle this is to conduct a sensitivity analysis. One widely-used sensitivity analysis framework hypothesizes the existence of a scalar unmeasured confounder U and asks how the causal conclusion would change were U measured and included in the primary analysis. Work along this line often makes various parametric assumptions on U, for the sake of mathematical and computational convenience...
December 2022: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37063605/estimation-of-reproduction-numbers-in-real-time-conceptual-and-statistical-challenges
#12
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Lorenzo Pellis, Paul J Birrell, Joshua Blake, Christopher E Overton, Francesca Scarabel, Helena B Stage, Ellen Brooks-Pollock, Leon Danon, Ian Hall, Thomas A House, Matt J Keeling, Jonathan M Read, Daniela De Angelis
The reproduction number <mml:math xmlns:mml="https://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi></mml:mrow> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> has been a central metric of the COVID-19 pandemic response, published weekly by the UK government and regularly reported in the media. Here, we provide a formal definition and discuss the advantages and most common misconceptions around this quantity. We consider the intuition behind different formulations of <mml:math xmlns:mml="https://www...
November 2022: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37066104/assessing-epidemic-curves-for-evidence-of-superspreading
#13
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Joe Meagher, Nial Friel
The expected number of secondary infections arising from each index case, referred to as the reproduction or <mml:math xmlns:mml="https://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi></mml:mrow> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> number, is a vital summary statistic for understanding and managing epidemic diseases. There are many methods for estimating <mml:math xmlns:mml="https://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mi>R</mml:mi></mml:mrow> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> ; however, few explicitly model heterogeneous disease reproduction, which gives rise to superspreading within the population...
October 2022: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/36778894/nearest-neighbor-ratio-imputation-with-incomplete-multinomial-outcome-in-survey-sampling
#14
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Chenyin Gao, Katherine Jenny Thompson, Jae Kwang Kim, Shu Yang
Nonresponse is a common problem in survey sampling. Appropriate treatment can be challenging, especially when dealing with detailed breakdowns of totals. Often, the nearest neighbor imputation method is used to handle such incomplete multinomial data. In this article, we investigate the nearest neighbor ratio imputation estimator, in which auxiliary variables are used to identify the closest donor and the vector of proportions from the donor is applied to the total of the recipient to implement ratio imputation...
October 2022: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/36246572/optimising-precision-and-power-by-machine-learning-in-randomised-trials-with-ordinal-and-time-to-event-outcomes-with-an-application-to-covid-19
#15
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Nicholas Williams, Michael Rosenblum, Iván Díaz
The rapid finding of effective therapeutics requires efficient use of available resources in clinical trials. Covariate adjustment can yield statistical estimates with improved precision, resulting in a reduction in the number of participants required to draw futility or efficacy conclusions. We focus on time-to-event and ordinal outcomes. When more than a few baseline covariates are available, a key question for covariate adjustment in randomised studies is how to fit a model relating the outcome and the baseline covariates to maximise precision...
September 23, 2022: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/35942194/mapping-ex-ante-risks-of-covid-19-in-indonesia-using-a-bayesian-geostatistical-model-on-airport-network-data
#16
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Jacqueline D Seufert, Andre Python, Christoph Weisser, Elías Cisneros, Krisztina Kis-Katos, Thomas Kneib
A rapid response to global infectious disease outbreaks is crucial to protect public health. Ex ante information on the spatial probability distribution of early infections can guide governments to better target protection efforts. We propose a two-stage statistical approach to spatially map the ex ante importation risk of COVID-19 and its uncertainty across Indonesia based on a minimal set of routinely available input data related to the Indonesian flight network, traffic and population data, and geographical information...
July 18, 2022: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/36247522/a-new-experiment-on-the-use-of-images-to-answer-web-survey-questions
#17
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Oriol J Bosch, Melanie Revilla, Danish Daniel Qureshi, Jan Karem Höhne
Images might provide richer and more objective information than text answers to open-ended survey questions. Little is known, nonetheless, about the consequences for data quality of asking participants to answer open-ended questions with images. Therefore, this paper addresses three research questions: (1) What is the effect of answering web survey questions with images instead of text on breakoff, noncompliance with the task, completion time and question evaluation? (2) What is the effect of including a motivational message on these four aspects? (3) Does the impact of asking to answer with images instead of text vary across device types? To answer these questions, we implemented a 2 × 3 between-subject web survey experiment ( N  = 3043) in Germany...
July 2022: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/36186167/switching-from-telephone-to-web-first-mixed-mode-data-collection-results-from-the-transition-into-adulthood-supplement-to-the-us-panel-study-of-income-dynamics-%C3%A2
#18
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Narayan Sastry, Katherine A McGonagle
We conducted an experiment to evaluate the effects on fieldwork outcomes and interview mode of switching to a web-first mixed-mode data collection design (self-administered web interview and interviewer-administered telephone interview) from a telephone-only design. We examine whether the mixed-mode option leads to better survey outcomes, based on response rates, fieldwork outcomes, interview quality, and costs. We also examine respondent characteristics associated with completing a web interview rather than a telephone interview...
July 2022: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/36105847/nonlinear-modal-regression-for-dependent-data-with-application-for-predicting-covid-19
#19
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Aman Ullah, Tao Wang, Weixin Yao
In this paper, under the stationary α -mixing dependent samples, we develop a novel nonlinear modal regression for time series sequences and establish the consistency and asymptotic property of the proposed nonlinear modal estimator with a shrinking bandwidth h under certain regularity conditions. The asymptotic distribution is shown to be identical to the one derived from the independent observations, whereas the convergence rate ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="https://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <mml:msqrt><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi> <mml:msup><mml:mi>h</mml:mi> <mml:mn>3</mml:mn></mml:msup> </mml:mrow> </mml:msqrt> </mml:math> in which n is the sample size) is slower than that in the nonlinear mean regression...
July 2022: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
https://read.qxmd.com/read/35942193/on-the-use-of-the-reproduction-number-for-sars-cov-2-estimation-misinterpretations-and-relationships-with-other-ecological-measures
#20
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Nicholas P Jewell, Joseph A Lewnard
The basic reproduction number, R 0 , and its real-time analogue, Rt , are summary measures that reflect the ability of an infectious disease to spread through a population. Estimation methods for Rt  have a long history, have been widely developed and are now enhanced by application to the COVID-19 pandemic. While retrospective analyses of Rt have provided insight into epidemic dynamics and the effects of control strategies in prior outbreaks, misconceptions around the interpretation of Rt have arisen with broader recognition and near real-time monitoring of this parameter alongside reported case data during the COVID-19 pandemic...
June 21, 2022: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)
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