European Journal of Population

The association between economic cycles-typically measured in terms of GDP growth or swings in unemployment-and macro-level fertility trends has received ample attention in the literature. Compared to studies that consider macro-level fertility, individual-based models can address the association between economic cycles and specific stages of family formation (e.g. entry into parenthood) more precisely while allowing for structural factors that contribute to fertility postponement. Using population-wide longitudinal microdata from the Belgian censuses we combine discrete-time hazard models of entry into parenthood for the period 1960 to 2010 with microsimulation models to assess whether economic cycles in tandem with educational expansion can account for year-to-year variation in the proportion of women entering parenthood and variation in the pace of fertility postponement at the macro-level...

Rising employment uncertainty featured by higher risks of being temporarily employed or unemployed is often seen as the driving force behind delayed and declined partnering in Western countries. However, such an employment-partnering relationship is contextualized by labour market institutions and thus could diverge across countries over time. This paper aims to investigate how country-level variations in labour market regulations moderate individual-level effects of unstable employment on union formation, including the transitions into marriage or cohabitation unions...

In this study we examine partnership dynamics among people with different sexual orientations in Germany. More specifically, we explore the process of first partnership formation and first cohabitation among men and women who self-identify as heterosexual, homosexual or bisexual. Given the various discriminations against same-sex lifestyles, and the limited opportunities to meet potential partners, we assume that lesbian, gay and bisexual (LGB) people form partnerships later in life and less frequently than heterosexuals...

The share of young adults living in married-couple family households in the USA has declined in recent decades. Research on alternative living arrangements focuses on cohabitation among unmarried couples and parent-adult child coresidence. Less is known about trends in non-family living arrangements and the characteristics of young adults living with non-relatives. This study documents trends over time in non-family living arrangements among young adults in the USA and examines the sociodemographic profile of those living with non-relatives...

We use longitudinal data on religious affiliation in Finland to examine childbearing behavior. All analyses are based on detailed fertility information from the Finnish national register of each person's religious denomination for men and women born in 1956-1975. We identify higher fertility according to parity among members of the Evangelical Lutheran state church and other Protestant churches, and lower fertility among individuals with no religious affiliation. Most other religious groups-Orthodox Christians, Jews, Muslims, and adherents of Eastern religions-have intermediate levels of fertility...

Proximate determinants theory considers infertility rates a risk factor for lower fertility rates, but the assumption that people who perceive infertility will have fewer children has not been tested. This study investigates the association of self-perceived infertility with the number of children people have had after 11 years. Infertility implies reduced chances of conception (rather than sterility), but people do not always consistently perceive infertility over time. If people who think they are infertile at one time can later report no infertility, then does self-perceived infertility necessarily lead to having fewer children? We answer this question by analyzing 11 waves of the German family panel (pairfam) data using negative binomial growth curve models for eight core demographic subgroups created by combinations of gender (men/women), parity (0/1+children), and initial age groups (25-27 and 35-37)...

We examined the influence of education on fertility decisions in contemporary China, drawing upon theoretical insights that emphasise the role of social institutions, gender relations, and life course dynamics in shaping family behaviour. This led us to propose a set of hypotheses that explain the differential effect of education on each parity. We used information on female cohorts born between 1960 and 1989, coming from the China Family Panel Studies for 2010-2018. We applied event history models with both independent and simultaneous equations models to account for selection and endogeneity effects...

This paper is the first to examine to what extent ethnicity affects ever migrating and the number of migrations across the lifespan for the case of internal migration in Indonesia. We use all five waves of the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) to study migration behaviour of respondents belonging to some of the largest ethnic groups in Indonesia. Our logistic regression results show that the Minangkabau, Betawi, Madurese, Balinese, Buginese and Makassarese, and Sasak, Bima and Dompu are less likely to ever migrate than the Javanese...

Spatial assimilation theory asserts that immigrants' socioeconomic progress leads to residential adaptation and integration. This association has proven robust in USA and European urban areas through much of the twentieth century, but drastic change of ethnic and class compositions yet persistent (neighbourhood) inequality in the urban landscape urge us to reconsider the dynamic interaction between stability and change. In this study, we investigate to what extent education shapes residential mobility differently for young adults with varying ethnic and social origins...

Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries faced short-term fertility declines in 2020-2021, a development which did not materialize in the majority of German-speaking and Nordic countries. However, more recent birth statistics show a steep fertility decline in 2022. We aim to provide empirical evidence on the unexpected birth decline in 2022 in Germany and Sweden. We rely on monthly birth statistics and present seasonally adjusted monthly Total Fertility Rates (TFR) for Germany and Sweden...

Despite increasing diversity within many societies, ethnically endogamous unions remain common. In contexts where one ethnic minority has lived alongside the majority for centuries, understanding who partners with whom is central to understanding how ethnic boundaries are maintained or dissolved. This study examines the role of own and parental ethnolinguistic affiliation for the first partner choice in Finland. We provide a unique test of the relevance of ethnic endogamy across two generations, in a context where both groups are native, but one (Finnish speakers) overwhelmingly outnumbers the other (Swedish speakers)...

Sequence analysis is employed in different fields-e.g., demography, sociology, and political sciences-to describe longitudinal processes represented as sequences of categorical states. In many applications, sequences are clustered to identify relevant types, which reflect the different empirical realisations of the temporal process under study. We explore criteria to inspect internal cluster composition and to detect deviant sequences, that is, cases characterised by rare patterns or outliers that might compromise cluster homogeneity...

The wellbeing of immigrants is affected by those around them and the context in which they live. Yet we still know relatively little about the impact that attitudes towards immigrants (ATI) have on immigrants' life satisfaction, nor do we know the routes by which it manifests. By matching individual data from the UK Understanding Society study to area-level data on ATI for England and Wales from the 2018 European Values Study, I examine whether subnational ATI are associated with immigrants' life satisfaction...

This paper provides new evidence on inequalities in resources for children age 3-4 by parental education using harmonized data from six advanced industrialized countries-United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Netherlands, and Japan-that represent different social welfare regime types. We analyze inequalities in two types of resources for young children-family income, and center-based child care-applying two alternative measures of parental education-highest parental education, and maternal education...

Since WWII, the two most important global trends in family planning have been fertility decline and abortion liberalisation. But are they related? Specifically: Does abortion liberalisation affect changes in fertility rates? The demographic literature has yet to answer this important question and instead offers two opposing predictions. Some studies argue that liberalisation of this medical procedure reduces fertility rates. By contrast, others note that such legal reforms may merely have an average, negligible effect on fertility levels...

The literature on fertility in context of crises considers major crises exclusively as economic experiences, however, they are also social phenomena, affecting communities, morality and social interactions. When changes in the social climate are of a sufficient magnitude, they tend to break down the social fabric and generate additional uncertainty, more of a social form, which may affect reproductive decisions beyond economic uncertainty alone. Applying Fixed Effects Models to 18 waves of the Swiss Household Panel (2004-2021), this study evaluates the relationship between changes in social climate and social uncertainty and first and second order childbearing intentions, net of economic uncertainty, sociodemographic determinants and unobserved time-invariant individual and local area characteristics...

Different strands of research analyse gender occupational differences and how they relate to differential earnings, especially among parents juggling family demands. We use rich data from PIAAC across a subset of European countries and match occupational characteristics to individuals' jobs using the O*NET database to analyse, first, whether there are gender differences in the occupational characteristics of jobs, particularly among parents, and second, whether the return to key occupational characteristics varies by gender...

Demographic forecasters must be realistic about how well they can predict future populations, and it is important that they include estimates of uncertainty in their forecasts. Here we focus on the future development of the immigrant population of Norway and their Norwegian-born children ("second generation"), grouped by three categories of country background: 1. West European countries plus the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand; 2. Central and East European countries that are members of the European Union; 3...

The Covid-19 pandemic and related massive spread of home based work led to substantial changes in the conditions for combining work and childbearing. On the one hand, working from home helped parents to accommodate increased childcare needs during the pandemic. On the other hand, it led to acute experiences of blurred boundaries between work and family life during childcare and school closures. Therefore, the direction of the impact of working from home on fertility intentions during the pandemic is not unequivocal...

Family formation is fostered by circumstances of plannability and economic and social stability. Conversely, as documented in previous literature, employment instability can hamper fertility decisions. Based on data from the Italian Labour Force Survey, this paper examines the association between employment-related instability and the likelihood of having a first or additional child from 2000 to 2020 in Italy, covering a period characterised by increasing labour market deregulation. Our results show that individual employment instability, such as temporary employment or unemployment, negatively influences the likelihood of having a first and second child, while the progression to higher parities is less affected by employment situations...