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Journals Risk Analysis : An Official Pu...

Risk Analysis : An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

https://read.qxmd.com/read/38030410/integrating-irrational-behavior-into-flood-risk-models-to-test-the-outcomes-of-policy-interventions
#41
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Linda Geaves, Jim Hall, Edmund Penning-Rowsell Obe
Householders are increasingly responsible for managing residual flood risk at property level. Yet, consumers are observed to adopt irrational behaviors under scenarios of risk, often making suboptimal decisions. Therefore, the question is raised, if householders are required to manage flood risk at household level, how can this be made fair and efficient? Policy instruments often incorporate "fairness" by subsidizing the costs of mitigation options, assuming a linear relationship between available finances and the uptake of risk mitigation measures...
November 29, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/38030383/lessons-from-the-covid-19-pandemic-mortality-impacts-in-poland-versus-european-union
#42
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Zbigniew W Kundzewicz, Kristie L Ebi, Jerzy Duszyński
With COVID-19 moving toward an endemic phase, it is worthwhile to identify lessons from the pandemic that can promote the effective strengthening of national health systems. We look at a single country, Poland, and compare it with the European Union (EU) to contrast approaches and outcomes. Among possible relevant indices, we examine characteristics of COVID-19-related mortality and excess all-cause mortality from March 2020 to February 2022. We demonstrate that both the numbers of COVID-related deaths and all-cause deaths in Poland were much higher than the EU average for most months in the study period...
November 29, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/38009438/thomas-burke-blending-practice-and-academia-at-the-highest-levels
#43
EDITORIAL
Michael R Greenberg, Karen Lowrie
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
November 27, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/38009429/robert-budnitz-tinkerer-experimenter-and-nuclear-safety-promoter
#44
EDITORIAL
Michael Greenberg, Karen Lowrie
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
November 27, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37988250/a-machine-learning-based-generalized-approach-for-predicting-unauthorized-immigration-flow-considering-dynamic-border-security-nexus
#45
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Ridwan Al Aziz, Tanvir Ahmed, Jun Zhuang
Unauthorized immigration has been a long-standing and contentious challenge for developed and developing countries. Numerous continually evolving push and pull factors across international borders, such as economy, employment, population density, unrest, corruption, and climate have driven this migration. Large-scale pandemics such as COVID-19, causing further instability in countries' financial well-being, can initiate or alter emigration flow from different countries. In light of such a complex confluence of factors, climate change, and demographic shifts in migrant communities, it is high time to shift toward machine learning-reinforced generalized approaches from the traditional parametric approaches based on migrant community-specific localized surveys...
November 21, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37983824/integrating-household-survey-with-inoperability-input-output-model-of-critical-infrastructure-systems-a-case-study-of-hurricane-sandy
#46
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Joost Santos, Sisi Meng, Pallab Mozumder
Critical infrastructures are ubiquitous and their interdependencies have become more complex leading to their uncertain behaviors in the aftermath of disasters. The article develops an integrated economic input-output model that incorporates household-level survey data from Hurricane Sandy, which made its landfall in 2012. In this survey, 427 respondents who were living in the state of New Jersey during Hurricane Sandy were used in the study. The integration of their responses allowed us to show the probability and duration of various types of critical infrastructure failures due to a catastrophic hurricane event and estimate the economic losses across different sectors...
November 20, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37973019/risk-aggregation-considering-probabilistic-and-consequential-interactions-a-general-formulation-with-computational-cost-handling
#47
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Chunbing Bao, Meng Cai, Jianping Li, Qinyue Zheng, Dengsheng Wu, Qingchun Meng
Complicated interaction between risk events is the critical obstacle preventing accurate risk aggregation, which is an important issue in risk management. Recent research integrates interaction into risk aggregation with different perspectives and lacks a comprehensive discussion of this issue, making the risk aggregation process not universal for diverse cases, especially in subjective risk assessment contexts. Therefore, this article proposes a theoretically convincing risk aggregation method embedding different types of interaction to support decision analysis more effectively...
November 16, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37970739/machines-meet-humans-on-the-social-road-risk-implications
#48
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Peng Liu
Human drivers and machine drivers (i.e., automated vehicles or AVs) will share roads and interact with each other, creating mixed traffic. In this perspective, we develop two mental models about them and their social interactions, aiming to understand the risk implications of AVs and mixed traffic. Based on Mental Model I (i.e., machine drivers are superior drivers without human weaknesses), many simulation-based safety assessments, which often overlook or oversimplify human-AV social interactions, have predicted significant safety benefits when machine drivers interact with or replace human drivers...
November 16, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37963681/communicating-scientific-uncertainty-in-the-early-stages-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-a-message-experiment
#49
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Dallin R Adams, Chelsea L Ratcliff, Manusheela Pokharel, Jakob D Jensen, Yi Liao
The World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020. It was a time of significant uncertainty as experts were not yet certain whether social distancing behaviors were necessary to slow the spread of the virus. Some public communicators opted to acknowledge uncertainty based on the limited evidence, whereas others downplayed uncertainty. This situation provided researchers with an opportunity to advance theory by explicating and testing cognitive responses to message uncertainty...
November 14, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37963564/unpacking-the-modeling-process-for-energy-policy-making
#50
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Samuele Lo Piano, Máté János Lőrincz, Arnald Puy, Steve Pye, Andrea Saltelli, Stefán Thor Smith, Jeroen van der Sluijs
This article explores how the modeling of energy systems may lead to an undue closure of alternatives by generating an excess of certainty around some of the possible policy options. We retrospectively exemplify the problem with the case of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) global modeling in the 1980s. We discuss different methodologies for quality assessment that may help mitigate this issue, which include Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP), diagnostic diagrams, and sensitivity auditing (SAUD)...
November 14, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37953395/mitigating-wildfire-smoke-inside-homes-evidence-from-oregon-september-2020
#51
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Charles Castillo, Ruth Dittrich, Vivek Shandas, Elliott Gall, Olyssa Starry
The smoke produced by wildfires can travel great distances and lead to respiratory and/or cardiovascular health impacts through inhalation. Individuals can reduce exposure by implementing smoke mitigation measures in their homes and beyond. In this article, we examine household level survey data (n = 543) on wildfire smoke mitigation in response to the September 2020 wildfires that occurred in the state of Oregon (and beyond). The air quality was hazardous for about 10 days in many affected regions...
November 12, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37952939/holistic-rockfall-risk-assessment-in-high-mountain-areas-affected-by-seismic-activity-application-to-the-uspallata-valley-central-andes-chile
#52
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Manon Farvacque, Nicolas Eckert, Gabriel Candia, Franck Bourrier, Christophe Corona, David Toe
Over large regions exposed to natural disasters, cascading effects resulting from complex or concatenated natural processes may represent a large portion of total risk. Populated high-mountain environments are a major concern, and methods for large-scale quantitative risk analyses are urgently required to improve risk mitigation. This article presents a comprehensive quantitative rockfall risk assessment over a large archetypal valley of the Andean mountains, in Central Chile, which integrates a wide spectrum of elements at risk...
November 12, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37939400/exploring-sustainable-energy-consumption-and-social-conflict-risks-in-turkey-insights-from-a-novel-multiresolution-ardl-approach
#53
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Hassen Mohamed, Foued Saâdaoui
Nonrenewable energy sources have been shown to be a cause of conflict and terrorism, highlighting the global conflict aspect, but little is known about the causal relationship between the energy system and terrorism in Turkey. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the causal links among renewable energy consumption, fossil fuels, terrorist attacks, education, trade opening, and geopolitical risks in Turkey from 1980 to 2016. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and Granger causality tests, the study analyzes the short and long-term relationships between the variables...
November 8, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37939398/trust-and-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence-a-research-agenda-for-ai-in-the-environmental-sciences
#54
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Ann Bostrom, Julie L Demuth, Christopher D Wirz, Mariana G Cains, Andrea Schumacher, Deianna Madlambayan, Akansha Singh Bansal, Angela Bearth, Randy Chase, Katherine M Crosman, Imme Ebert-Uphoff, David John Gagne, Seth Guikema, Robert Hoffman, Branden B Johnson, Christina Kumler-Bonfanti, John D Lee, Anna Lowe, Amy McGovern, Vanessa Przybylo, Jacob T Radford, Emilie Roth, Carly Sutter, Philippe Tissot, Paul Roebber, Jebb Q Stewart, Miranda White, John K Williams
Demands to manage the risks of artificial intelligence (AI) are growing. These demands and the government standards arising from them both call for trustworthy AI. In response, we adopt a convergent approach to review, evaluate, and synthesize research on the trust and trustworthiness of AI in the environmental sciences and propose a research agenda. Evidential and conceptual histories of research on trust and trustworthiness reveal persisting ambiguities and measurement shortcomings related to inconsistent attention to the contextual and social dependencies and dynamics of trust...
November 8, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37936539/a-covid-19-cluster-analysis-in-an-office-assessing-the-long-range-aerosol-and-fomite-transmissions-with-infection-control-measures
#55
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Atsushi Mizukoshi, Jiro Okumura, Kenichi Azuma
Simulated exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in the environment was demonstrated based on the actual coronavirus disease 2019 cluster occurrence in an office, with a projected risk considering the likely transmission pathways via aerosols and fomites. A total of 35/85 occupants were infected, with the attack rate in the first stage as 0.30. It was inferred that the aerosol transmission at long-range produced the cluster at virus concentration in the saliva of the infected cases on the basis of the simulation, more than 108  PFU mL-1 ...
November 7, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37926556/time-matters-in-pandemic-risk-communication-a-moderated-effect-of-information-timeliness-on-stakeholder-perception-in-singapore
#56
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Fangxin Yi, Xiangyu Dale Li, Shaocong Yu, Qiang Zhang
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic shows the increasing importance of determining the factors of the public perceptions of personal and societal risks. These perceptions can shape people's behaviors, which, in turn, alter the spread of a pandemic on the community level. However, previous research on risk communication was inconsistent, and little is known about the impact of timely warning messages on stakeholders' perceptions of public health emergencies. To address this theoretical gap, this study analyzes the survey data (N = 538) from Singapore to explore the main effect of information timeliness on the respondents' stakeholder perceptions...
November 5, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37897045/posthurricane-damage-assessment-using-satellite-imagery-and-geolocation-features
#57
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Quoc Dung Cao, Youngjun Choe
Gaining timely and reliable situation awareness after hazard events such as a hurricane is crucial to emergency managers and first responders. One effective way to achieve that goal is through damage assessment. Recently, disaster researchers have been utilizing imagery captured through satellites or drones to quantify the number of flooded/damaged buildings. In this paper, we propose a mixed-data approach, which leverages publicly available satellite imagery and geolocation features of the affected area to identify damaged buildings after a hurricane...
October 27, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37882723/time-for-a-paradigm-change-problems-with-the-financial-industry-s-approach-to-operational-risk
#58
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Tom Butler, Robert Brooks
Organizational and risk cultures in the financial industry are argued to be the root cause of banking problems. It is concerning that financial regulators and practitioners still consider the industry to be seriously fragile in several respects, particularly to operational risks and risks associated with digital transformation and innovation-not that the risks of organizational misconduct have disappeared. The rescue of Credit Suisse in 2023 confirms this. This paper employs extant theories of organizational culture, learning, and action to critically evaluate the existing risk paradigm in banking and to highlight its deficiencies, which practitioners can only address by questioning the flawed assumptions and dysfunctional values and behaviors found to be endemic in banks...
October 26, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37882685/general-science-technology-orientation-specific-benefit-risk-assessment-frame-and-public-acceptance-of-gene-drive-biotechnology
#59
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Xinsheng Liu, Carol L Goldsmith, Ki Eun Kang, Arnold Vedlitz, Zach N Adelman, Leah W Buchman, Elizabeth Heitman, Raul F Medina
With limited understanding of most new biotechnologies, how do citizens form their opinion and what factors influence their attitudes about these innovations? In this study, we use gene drive biotechnology in agricultural pest management as an example and theoretically propose that given low levels of knowledge and awareness, citizens' acceptance of, or opposition to, gene drive is significantly shaped by two predisposition factors: individuals' general orientation toward science and technology, and their specific benefit-risk assessment frame...
October 26, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/37876044/risk-assessment-for-conventional-diesel-exhaust-before-1990-and-lung-cancer-in-a-cohort-of-miners
#60
JOURNAL ARTICLE
Robert M Park
Diesel exhaust in the latter half of the 20th century has been found to be a lung carcinogen. Conventional diesel emissions continue in the transportation, mining, construction, and farming industries. From the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study, a public-use dataset was used to calculate the excess lifetime risk of lung cancer associated with diesel exposure (1947-1997). Excess rates of lung cancer mortality associated with respirable elemental carbon (REC) and possible other mining exposures (e.g., oil mists, explosives emissions) were investigated using Poisson regression methods...
October 24, 2023: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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