journal

Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis | Page 2

journal
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32339327/reflections-on-modeling-poliovirus-transmission-and-the-polio-eradication-endgame
#21
Kimberly M Thompson, Dominika A Kalkowska
The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners engaged modelers during the past nearly 20 years to support strategy and policy discussions and decisions, and to provide estimates of the risks, costs, and benefits of different options for managing the polio endgame. Limited efforts to date provided insights related to the validation of the models used for GPEI strategy and policy decisions. However, modeling results only influenced decisions in some cases, with other factors carrying more weight in many key decisions...
April 27, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32339319/big-data-and-predictive-analytics-in-fire-risk-using-weather-data
#22
Puneet Agarwal, Junlin Tang, Adithya Narayanan Lakshmi Narayanan, Jun Zhuang
The objective of this article is to study the impact of weather on the damage caused by fire incidents across the United States. The article uses two sets of big data--fire incidents data from the National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) and weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-to obtain a single comprehensive data set for prediction and analysis of fire risk. In the article, the loss is referred to as "Total Percent Loss," a metric that is calculated based on the content and property loss incurred by an owner over the total value of content and property...
April 27, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32339316/healthcare-professionals-risk-assessments-for-alert-overrides-in-high-risk-iv-infusions-using-simulated-scenarios
#23
Wan-Ting K Su, Mark R Lehto, Dan D Degnan, Yuehwern Yih, Vincent G Duffy, Poching DeLaurentis
This study aimed to use healthcare professionals' assessments to calculate expected risk of intravenous (IV) infusion harm for simulated high-risk medications that exceed soft limits and to investigate the impact of relevant risk factors. We designed 30 infusion scenarios for four high-risk medications, propofol, morphine, insulin, and heparin, infused in adult intensive care unit (AICU) and adult medical and surgical care unit (AMSU). A total of 20 pharmacists and 5 nurses provided their assessed expected risk of harm in each scenario...
April 27, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32315459/quantifying-human-health-risks-from-virginiamycin-use-in-food-animals-in-china
#24
Louis Anthony Cox, Douglas A Popken, Jian Sun, Xiao-Ping Liao, Liang-Xing Fang
Virginiamycin (VM), a streptogramin antibiotic, has been used to promote healthy growth and treat illnesses in farm animals in the United States and other countries. The combination streptogramin Quinupristin-Dalfopristin (QD) was approved in the United States in 1999 for treating patients with vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREF) infections. Many chickens and swine test positive for QD-resistant E. faecium, raising concerns that using VM in food animals might select for streptogramin-resistant strains of E...
April 21, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32311149/insights-into-flood-risk-misperceptions-of-homeowners-in-the-dutch-river-delta
#25
Jantsje M Mol, W J Wouter Botzen, Julia E Blasch, Hans de Moel
Flooding is one of the most significant natural disasters worldwide. Nevertheless, voluntary take-up of individual damage reduction measures is low. A potential explanation is that flood risk perceptions of individual homeowners are below objective estimates of flood risk, which may imply that they underestimate the flood risk and the damage that can be avoided by damage reduction measures. The aim of this article is to assess possible flood risk misperceptions of floodplain residents in the Netherlands, and to offer insights into factors that are related with under- or overestimation of perceived flood risk...
April 20, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32267978/coronavirus-and-risk-analysis
#26
EDITORIAL
Charles Haas
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
April 8, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32255207/roger-kasperson-in-pursuit-of-solutions-to-risk-conundrums
#27
EDITORIAL
Michael R Greenberg, Karen Lowrie
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
April 7, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32255195/rae-zimmerman-a-lifetime-of-building-networks
#28
EDITORIAL
Michael R Greenberg, Karen Lowrie
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
April 7, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32220145/understanding-the-ecological-validity-of-relying-practice-as-a-basis-for-risk-identification
#29
T Anderson, J S Busby, M Rouncefield
Understanding the reliability of hazardous organizations and their protective systems is central to understanding the risk they produce. Work on "high reliability organization" has done much to illuminate the conditions in which social organization becomes reliable in highly demanding conditions. But risk depends just as much on how relying entities do their relying as it does on the reliability of the entities they rely on. Patterns of relying are often opaque in sociotechnical systems, and processes of relying and being relied on are mutually influencing in complex ways, so the relationship between relying and risk may not be at all obvious...
March 27, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32180256/a-methodology-for-assessing-the-probability-of-occurrence-of-undesired-events-in-the-tiet%C3%A3%C2%AA-paran%C3%A3-inland-waterway-based-on-expert-opinion
#30
Marcelo Ramos Martins, Marco Aurélio Pestana, Enrique Andrés López Droguett
The market share of Tietê-Paraná inland waterway (TPIW) in the transport matrix of the São Paulo state, Brazil, is currently only 0.6%, but it is expected to increase to 6% over the next 20 years. In this scenario, to identify and explore potential undesired events a risk assessment is necessary. Part of this involves assigning the probability of occurrence of events, which usually is accomplished by a frequentist approach. However, in many cases, this approach is not possible due to unavailable or nonrepresentative data...
March 17, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32180238/a-solar-centric-approach-to-improving-estimates-of-exposure-processes-for-coronal-mass-ejections
#31
Kathrin Kirchen, William Harbert, Jay Apt, M Granger Morgan
We present a solar-centric approach to estimating the probability of extreme coronal mass ejections (CME) using the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) CME Catalog observations updated through May 2018 and an updated list of near-Earth interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME). We examine robust statistical approaches to the estimation of extreme events. We then assume a variety of time-independent distributions fitting, and then comparing, the different probability distributions to the relevant regions of the cumulative distributions of the observed CME speeds...
March 17, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32170781/simulating-the-linkages-between-economy-and-armed-conflict-in-india-with-a-long-short-term-memory-algorithm
#32
Mengmeng Hao, Jingying Fu, Dong Jiang, Fangyu Ding, Shuai Chen
This article analyzes the linkages between the economy and armed conflict in India using annual frequency data for the period 1989-2016, the maximum time period for which consistent data are available for the country. An adequate set of economic indicators was established to fully reflect the economic condition. Long short-term memory (LSTM), which is a machine-learning algorithm for time series, was employed to simulate the relationship between the economy and armed conflict events. In addition, LSTM was applied to predict the trend of armed conflict with two strategies: multiyear predictions and yearly predictions...
March 13, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32170774/application-of-a-risk-analysis-tool-to-middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-mers-cov-outbreak-in-saudi-arabia
#33
Xin Chen, Abrar A Chughtai, Chandini R MacIntyre
The Grunow-Finke assessment tool (GFT) is an accepted scoring system for determining likelihood of an outbreak being unnatural in origin. Considering its high specificity but low sensitivity, a modified Grunow-Finke tool (mGFT) has been developed with improved sensitivity. The mGFT has been validated against some past disease outbreaks, but it has not been applied to ongoing outbreaks. This study is aimed to score the outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia using both the original GFT and mGFT...
March 13, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32147863/a-discourse-on-the-incorporation-of-organizational-factors-into-probabilistic-risk-assessment-key-questions-and-categorical-review
#34
Justin Pence, Zahra Mohaghegh
This article presents a discourse on the incorporation of organizational factors into probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)/probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), a topic of debate since the 1980s that has spurred discussions among industry, regulatory agencies, and the research community. The main contributions of this article include (1) identifying the four key open questions associated with this topic; (2) framing ongoing debates by considering differing perspectives around each question; (3) offering a categorical review of existing studies on this topic to justify the selection of each question and to analyze the challenges related to each perspective; and (4) highlighting the directions of research required to reach a final resolution for each question...
March 9, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32144841/insights-from-modeling-preventive-supplemental-immunization-activities-as-a-strategy-to-eliminate-wild-poliovirus-transmission-in-pakistan-and-afghanistan
#35
Dominika A Kalkowska, Kimberly M Thompson
Many countries use supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to keep their population immunity to transmission high using preventive, planned SIAs (pSIAs) and outbreaks response SIAs (oSIAs). Prior studies suggested that investment in pSIAs saved substantial health and financial costs due to avoided outbreaks. However, questions remain about the benefits of SIAs, particularly with the recent introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) into routine immunization in all OPV-using countries...
March 6, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32144840/reflective-listening-visualization-enhancing-interdisciplinary-disaster-research-through-the-use-of-visualization-techniques
#36
JoAnne DeRouen, Kari J Smith
Reflective Listening Visualization is an interdisciplinary research method and iterative process that includes the participation and involvement of multiple team members of different disciplines when (1) conducting in-depth interviews, (2) performing thematic analysis of the interview data, (3) using the emergent themes as basis to design visual representations of the themes, (4) presenting the visuals back to the interviewee for feedback, and (5) using the feedback to confirm the visual, refine the existing visual, or to create a new visual...
March 6, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32144834/human-error-in-autonomous-underwater-vehicle-deployment-a-system-dynamics-approach
#37
Tzu Yang Loh, Mario P Brito, Neil Bose, Jingjing Xu, Kiril Tenekedjiev
The use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for various applications have grown with maturing technology and improved accessibility. The deployment of AUVs for under-ice marine science research in the Antarctic is one such example. However, a higher risk of AUV loss is present during such endeavors due to the extremities in the Antarctic. A thorough analysis of risks is therefore crucial for formulating effective risk control policies and achieving a lower risk of loss. Existing risk analysis approaches focused predominantly on the technical aspects, as well as identifying static cause and effect relationships in the chain of events leading to AUV loss...
March 6, 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32383534/from-the-editors
#38
EDITORIAL
Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
May 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32307740/from-the-editors
#39
EDITORIAL
Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
April 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/32134148/from-the-editors
#40
EDITORIAL
Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
March 2020: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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