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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis | Page 2

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https://read.qxmd.com/read/31173660/a-novel-approach-to-chemical-mixture-risk-assessment-linking-data-from-population-based-epidemiology-and-experimental-animal-tests
#21
Carl-Gustaf Bornehag, Efthymia Kitraki, Antonios Stamatakis, Emily Panagiotidou, Christina Rudén, Huan Shu, Christian Lindh, Joelle Ruegg, Chris Gennings
Humans are continuously exposed to chemicals with suspected or proven endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Risk management of EDCs presents a major unmet challenge because the available data for adverse health effects are generated by examining one compound at a time, whereas real-life exposures are to mixtures of chemicals. In this work, we integrate epidemiological and experimental evidence toward a whole mixture strategy for risk assessment. To illustrate, we conduct the following four steps in a case study: (1) identification of single EDCs ("bad actors")-measured in prenatal blood/urine in the SELMA study-that are associated with a shorter anogenital distance (AGD) in baby boys; (2) definition and construction of a "typical" mixture consisting of the "bad actors" identified in Step 1; (3) experimentally testing this mixture in an in vivo animal model to estimate a dose-response relationship and determine a point of departure (i...
June 7, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31170330/risk-risk-tradeoff-analysis-of-nuclear-explosives-for-asteroid-deflection
#22
Seth D Baum
To prevent catastrophic asteroid-Earth collisions, it has been proposed to use nuclear explosives to deflect away earthbound asteroids. However, this policy of nuclear deflection could inadvertently increase the risk of nuclear war and other violent conflict. This article conducts risk-risk tradeoff analysis to assess whether nuclear deflection results in a net increase or decrease in risk. Assuming nonnuclear deflection options are also used, nuclear deflection may only be needed for the largest and most imminent asteroid collisions...
June 6, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31170329/measuring-and-achieving-equity-in-multiperiod-emergency-material-allocation
#23
Yanyan Wang, Vicki M Bier, Baiqing Sun
Emergency material allocation is an important part of postdisaster emergency logistics that is significant for improving rescue effectiveness and reducing disaster losses. However, the traditional single-period allocation model often causes local surpluses or shortages and high cost, and prevents the system from achieving an equitable or optimal multiperiod allocation. To achieve equitable allocation of emergency materials in the case of serious shortages relative to the demand by victims, this article introduces a multiperiod model for allocation of emergency materials to multiple affected locations (using an exponential utility function to reflect the disutility loss due to material shortfalls), and illustrates the relationship between equity of allocations and the cost of emergency response...
June 6, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31162710/modeling-of-distributed-generators-resilience-considering-lifeline-dependencies-during-extreme-events
#24
Vaidyanathan Krishnamurthy, Alexis Kwasinski
This article derives distributed generators resilience models considering lifeline dependencies during extreme events. The effects on power resilience of storage capacity, fuel delays, and fuel order placements are analyzed. Results indicate that storage capacity has an important role in improving overall power supply resilience as seen by loads. In addition, the presented models provide a quantifiable approach in evaluating fuel delivery resilience. The models facilitate studying fuel scheduling policies and local fuel storage sizing for specified resilience requirements...
June 4, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31158315/the-practical-significance-of-measurement-error-in-pulmonary-function-testing-conducted-in-research-settings
#25
Richard B Belzer, R Jeffrey Lewis
Conventional spirometry produces measurement error by using repeatability criteria (RC) to discard acceptable data and terminating tests early when RC are met. These practices also implicitly assume that there is no variation across maneuvers within each test. This has implications for air pollution regulations that rely on pulmonary function tests to determine adverse effects or set standards. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation of 20,902 tests of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1 ), each with eight maneuvers, for an individual with empirically obtained, plausibly normal pulmonary function...
June 3, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31158313/risk-perception-and-human-health-risk-in-rural-communities-consuming-unregulated-well-water-in-saskatchewan-canada
#26
Lorelei Ford, Cheryl Waldner, Javier Sanchez, Lalita Bharadwaj
Rural communities dependent on unregulated drinking water are potentially at increased health risk from exposure to contaminants. Perception of drinking water safety influences water consumption, exposure, and health risk. A community-based participatory approach and probabilistic Bayesian methods were applied to integrate risk perception in a holistic human health risk assessment. Tap water arsenic concentrations and risk perception data were collected from two Saskatchewan communities. Drinking water health standards were exceeded in 67% (51/76) of households in Rural Municipality #184 (RM184) and 56% (25/45) in Beardy's and Okemasis First Nation (BOFN)...
June 3, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31141836/the-frontiers-of-uncertainty-estimation-in-interdisciplinary-disaster-research-and-practice
#27
Roshanak Nateghi, Jeannette Sutton, Pamela Murray-Tuite
Conceptualizing, assessing, and managing disaster risks involve collecting and synthesizing pluralistic information-from natural, built, and human systems-to characterize disaster impacts and guide policy on effective resilience investments. Disaster research and practice, therefore, are highly complex and inherently interdisciplinary endeavors. Characterizing the uncertainties involved in interdisciplinary disaster research is imperative, since misrepresenting uncertainty can lead to myopic decisions and suboptimal societal outcomes...
May 29, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31136697/probabilistic-modeling-of-flood-hazard-and-its-risk-assessment-for-eastern-region-of-india
#28
Pratyay Manna, Mohammed Zafar Anis, Prasun Das, Soumya Banerjee
This article models flood occurrence probabilistically and its risk assessment. It incorporates atmospheric parameters to forecast rainfall in an area. This measure of precipitation, together with river and ground parameters, serve as parameters in the model to predict runoff and subsequently inundation depth of an area. The inundation depth acts as a guide for predicting flood proneness and associated hazard. The vulnerability owing to flood has been analyzed as social vulnerability <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www...
May 28, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31136683/illustration-of-a-method-to-incorporate-preference-uncertainty-in-benefit-cost-analysis
#29
Sunhee Baik, Alexander L Davis, M Granger Morgan
Benefit-cost analysis is widely used to evaluate alternative courses of action that are designed to achieve policy objectives. Although many analyses take uncertainty into account, they typically only consider uncertainty about cost estimates and physical states of the world, whereas uncertainty about individual preferences, thus the benefit of policy intervention, is ignored. Here, we propose a strategy to integrate individual uncertainty about preferences into benefit-cost analysis using societal preference intervals, which are ranges of values over which it is unclear whether society as a whole should accept or reject an option...
May 28, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31136682/managing-the-risk-of-aggressive-dog-behavior-investigating-the-influence-of-owner-threat-and-efficacy-perceptions
#30
Emma J Williams, Emily Blackwell
Aggressive behavior in pet dogs is a serious problem for dog owners across the globe, with bite injuries representing a serious risk to both people and other dogs. The effective management of aggressive behavior in dogs represents a challenging and controversial issue. Although positive reinforcement training methods are now considered to be the most effective and humane technique to manage the risk of aggression, punishment-based methods continue to be used. Unfortunately, there has been little scientific study into the various factors influencing whether dog owners choose to use positive reinforcement techniques to manage aggression in their dogs...
May 28, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31108566/the-value-of-a-statistical-life-for-risk-averse-and-risk-seeking-individuals
#31
Marcela V Parada-Contzen
This article estimates the value of a statistical life (VSL) for Chile under the hedonic wage method while accounting for individual risk preferences. Two alternative measures of risk aversion are used. First, risk aversion is directly measured using survey measures of preferences over hypothetical gambles, and second, over observed individual behaviors that may proxy for risk preferences, such as smoking status, are used. I reconcile the results with a theoretical model of economic behavior that predicts how the wage-risk tradeoff changes as risk aversion differs across individuals...
May 20, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31100198/rethinking-resilience-analytics
#32
Daniel Eisenberg, Thomas Seager, David L Alderson
The concept of "resilience analytics" has recently been proposed as a means to leverage the promise of big data to improve the resilience of interdependent critical infrastructure systems and the communities supported by them. Given recent advances in machine learning and other data-driven analytic techniques, as well as the prevalence of high-profile natural and man-made disasters, the temptation to pursue resilience analytics without question is almost overwhelming. Indeed, we find big data analytics capable to support resilience to rare, situational surprises captured in analytic models...
May 17, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31070803/do-interactions-between-environmental-chemicals-and-the-human-microbiome-need-to-be-considered-in-risk-assessments
#33
Joseph Rodricks, Yvonne Huang, Ellen Mantus, Pamela Shubat
One of the most dynamic and fruitful areas of current health-related research concerns the various roles of the human microbiome in disease. Evidence is accumulating that interactions between substances in the environment and the microbiome can affect risks of disease, in both beneficial and adverse ways. Although most of the research has concerned the roles of diet and certain pharmaceutical agents, there is increasing interest in the possible roles of environmental chemicals. Chemical risk assessment has, to date, not included consideration of the influence of the microbiome...
May 9, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31059157/risk-informed-requirements-for-design-and-assessment-of-structures-under-temporary-use
#34
Ramon Hingorani, Peter Tanner
The relatively high failure rates, with important consequences in many cases, suggest that the implicitly acceptable risk levels corresponding to temporary civil engineering structures and activities might exceed the bounds of normally acceptable levels associated with different societal activities. Among other reasons, this may be attributed to the lack of a rational approach for the assessment of risks associated with the different technologies supporting these activities in general, and for structures in particular...
May 6, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31046144/trust-and-risk-perception-a-critical-review-of-the-literature
#35
Michael Siegrist
Many studies in the field of risk perception and acceptance of hazards include trust as an explanatory variable. Despite this, the importance of trust has often been questioned. The relevant issue is not only whether trust is crucial but also the form of trust that people rely on in a given situation. In this review, I discuss various trust models and the relationship between trust and affect heuristics. I conclude that the importance of trust varies by hazard and respondent group. Most of the studies use surveys that provide limited information about causality...
May 2, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31046141/a-review-of-recent-advances-in-benchmark-dose-methodology
#36
Signe M Jensen, Felix M Kluxen, Christian Ritz
In this review, recent methodological developments for the benchmark dose (BMD) methodology are summarized. Specifically, we introduce the advances for the main steps in BMD derivation: selecting the procedure for defining a BMD from a predefined benchmark response (BMR), setting a BMR, selecting a dose-response model, and estimating the corresponding BMD lower limit (BMDL). Although the last decade has shown major progress in the development of BMD methodology, there is still room for improvement. Remaining challenges are the implementation of new statistical methods in user-friendly software and the lack of consensus about how to derive the BMDL...
May 2, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31039296/understanding-community-resilience-from-a-pra-perspective-using-binary-decision-diagrams
#37
Saeed Nozhati, Bruce R Ellingwood, Hussam Mahmoud
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a useful tool to assess complex interconnected systems. This article leverages the capabilities of PRA tools developed for industrial and nuclear risk analysis in community resilience evaluations by modeling the food security of a community in terms of its built environment as an integrated system. To this end, we model the performance of Gilroy, CA, a moderate-size town, with regard to disruptions in its food supply caused by a severe earthquake. The food retailers of Gilroy, along with the electrical power network, water network elements, and bridges are considered as components of a system...
April 30, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31039286/network-reconfiguration-for-increasing-transportation-system-resilience-under-extreme-events
#38
Xiaoge Zhang, Sankaran Mahadevan, Kai Goebel
Evacuating residents out of affected areas is an important strategy for mitigating the impact of natural disasters. However, the resulting abrupt increase in the travel demand during evacuation causes severe congestions across the transportation system, which thereby interrupts other commuters' regular activities. In this article, a bilevel mathematical optimization model is formulated to address this issue, and our research objective is to maximize the transportation system resilience and restore its performance through two network reconfiguration schemes: contraflow (also referred to as lane reversal) and crossing elimination at intersections...
April 30, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31039285/interventions-targeting-deep-tissue-lymph-nodes-may-not-effectively-reduce-the-risk-of-salmonellosis-from-ground-pork-consumption-a-quantitative-microbial-risk-assessment
#39
Yangjunna Zhang, Annette M O'Connor, Chong Wang, James S Dickson, H Scott Hurd, Bing Wang
The inclusion of deep tissue lymph nodes (DTLNs) or nonvisceral lymph nodes contaminated with Salmonella in wholesale fresh ground pork (WFGP) production may pose risks to public health. To assess the relative contribution of DTLNs to human salmonellosis occurrence associated with ground pork consumption and to investigate potential critical control points in the slaughter-to-table continuum for the control of human salmonellosis in the United States, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was established...
April 30, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31033003/is-allocation-affected-by-the-perception-of-others-irresponsible-behavior-and-by-ambiguity
#40
Zvi Safra, Sinong Ma, Tigran Melkonyan
The article examines how the perception of others' irresponsible behavior and ambiguity regarding probabilities affect allocation among potential beneficiaries. To elicit these views, we conducted a survey where the participants were first asked to make an allocation of a fixed sum of money between a hereditary cancer, where chance plays a central role, and a lifestyle-related cancer, where individual lifestyle decisions are more important. Our estimation results show that a substantial share of the respondents allocate significantly more to the hereditary cancer...
April 29, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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