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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis | Page 2

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https://read.qxmd.com/read/30908703/experiments-in-lay-cues-to-the-relative-validity-of-positions-taken-by-disputing-groups-of-scientists
#21
Branden B Johnson
Risk analysis and hazard management can prompt varied intra-scientific disputes, some which have or will become public, and thus potentially available for lay judgments of the relative validity of the positions taken. As attentive laypeople may include elites as well as the general public, understanding whether and how cues to credibility of disputing groups of scientists might shape those lay judgments can be important. Relevant literatures from philosophy, social studies of science, risk analysis, and elsewhere have identified potential cues, but not tested their absolute or relative effects...
March 25, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30908695/a-definition-and-categorization-system-for-advanced-materials-the-foundation-for-risk-informed-environmental-health-and-safety-testing
#22
Alan Kennedy, Jonathon Brame, Taylor Rycroft, Matthew Wood, Valerie Zemba, Charles Weiss, Matthew Hull, Cary Hill, Charles Geraci, Igor Linkov
Novel materials with unique or enhanced properties relative to conventional materials are being developed at an increasing rate. These materials are often referred to as advanced materials (AdMs) and they enable technological innovations that can benefit society. Despite their benefits, however, the unique characteristics of many AdMs, including many nanomaterials, are poorly understood and may pose environmental safety and occupational health (ESOH) risks that are not readily determined by traditional risk assessment methods...
March 25, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30893502/probabilistic-multiple-hazard-resilience-model-of-an-interdependent-infrastructure-system
#23
Jingjing Kong, Slobodan P Simonovic
Multiple hazard resilience is of significant practical value because most regions of the world are subject to multiple natural and technological hazards. An analysis and assessment approach for multiple hazard spatiotemporal resilience of interdependent infrastructure systems is developed using network theory and a numerical analysis. First, we define multiple hazard resilience and present a quantitative probabilistic metric based on the expansion of a single hazard deterministic resilience model. Second, we define a multiple hazard relationship analysis model with a focus on the impact of hazards on an infrastructure...
March 20, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30893499/a-modular-bayesian-salmonella-source-attribution-model-for-sparse-data
#24
Antti Mikkelä, Jukka Ranta, Pirkko Tuominen
Several statistical models for salmonella source attribution have been presented in the literature. However, these models have often been found to be sensitive to the model parameterization, as well as the specifics of the data set used. The Bayesian salmonella source attribution model presented here was developed to be generally applicable with small and sparse annual data sets obtained over several years. The full Bayesian model was modularized into three parts (an exposure model, a subtype distribution model, and an epidemiological model) in order to separately estimate unknown parameters in each module...
March 20, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30893483/communicating-with-the-public-about-marauding-terrorist-firearms-attacks-results-from-a-survey-experiment-on-factors-influencing-intention-to-run-hide-tell-in-the-united-kingdom-and-denmark
#25
Julia M Pearce, Lasse Lindekilde, David Parker, M Brooke Rogers
Effective risk communication is an integral part of responding to terrorism, but until recently, there has been very little pre-event communication in a European context to provide advice to the public on how to protect themselves during an attack. Following terrorist attacks involving mass shootings in Paris, France, in November 2015, the U.K. National Police Chiefs' Council released a Stay Safe film and leaflet that advises the public to "run," "hide," and "tell" in the event of a firearms or weapons attack...
March 20, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30884551/risk-communication-as-government-agency-organizational-practice
#26
Åsa Boholm
The dynamics of organizational risk communication is an understudied topic in risk research. This article investigates how public officials at six government agencies in Sweden understand and relate to risk communication and its uses in the context of agency organizational work on policy and regulation. Qualitative interviews were used to explore the practitioners' views on some key topics in the academic literature on risk communication. A main finding is that there is little consensus on what the goals of risk communication are; if, and how, uncertainty should be communicated; and what role is to be played by transparency in risk communication...
March 18, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30884546/toward-convergence-disaster-research-building-integrative-theories-using-simulation
#27
Ali Mostafavi, N Emel Ganapati
Scholars across disciplines use simulation methods as tools to build theories; however, the full potential of simulation methods has not been fully used for building theories in convergence disaster research. Simulation methods could provide four unique opportunities for building theories for convergence disaster research. First, simulation methods could help researchers model the underlying mechanisms of disaster phenomena by enabling integration of qualitative and quantitative data. Second, they could help researchers specify and characterize the mechanisms affecting specific disaster phenomena by facilitating integration of empirical information with existing theoretical elements from different disciplines...
March 18, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30859607/cigarette-smoking-and-multiple-health-risk-behaviors-a-latent-class-regression-model-to-identify-a-profile-of-young-adolescents
#28
Lorena Charrier, Paola Berchialla, Paola Dalmasso, Alberto Borraccino, Patrizia Lemma, Franco Cavallo
Cigarette smoking is often established during adolescence when other health-related risk behaviors tend to occur. The aim of the study was to further investigate the hypothesis that risky health behaviors tend to cluster together and to identify distinctive profiles of young adolescents based on their smoking habits. To explore the idea that smoking behavior can predict membership in a specific risk profile of adolescents, with heavy smokers being more likely to exhibit other risk behaviors, we reanalyzed the data from the 2014 Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Italian survey of about 60,000 first- and third-grade junior high school (JHS) and second-grade high school (HS) students...
March 12, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30845355/time-varying-risk-measurement-for-ship-collision-prevention
#29
Yamin Huang, P H A J M van Gelder
We propose an innovative time-varying collision risk (TCR) measurement for ship collision prevention in this article. The proposed measurement considers the level of danger of the approaching ships and the capability of a ship to prevent collisions. We define the TCR as the probability of the overlap of ships' positions in the future, given the uncertainty of maneuvers. Two sets are identified: (1) the velocity obstacle set as the maneuvers of the own ship that lead to collisions with target ships, and (2) the reachable velocity set as the maneuvers that the own ship can reach regarding its maneuverability...
March 7, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30830976/farmers-risk-based-decision-making-under-pervasive-uncertainty-cognitive-thresholds-and-hazy-hedging
#30
Kieran M Findlater, Terre Satterfield, Milind Kandlikar
Researchers in judgment and decision making have long debunked the idea that we are economically rational optimizers. However, problematic assumptions of rationality remain common in studies of agricultural economics and climate change adaptation, especially those that involve quantitative models. Recent movement toward more complex agent-based modeling provides an opportunity to reconsider the empirical basis for farmer decision making. Here, we reconceptualize farmer decision making from the ground up, using an in situ mental models approach to analyze weather and climate risk management...
March 4, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30822370/integrating-stakeholder-mapping-and-risk-scenarios-to-improve-resilience-of-cyber-physical-social-networks
#31
Ayedh Almutairi, John P Wheeler, David L Slutzky, James H Lambert
The future of energy mobility involves networks of users, operators, organizations, vehicles, charging stations, communications, materials, transportation corridors, points of service, and so on. The integration of smart grids with plug-in electric vehicle technologies has societal and commercial advantages that include improving grid stability, minimizing dependence on nonrenewable fuels, reducing vehicle emissions, and reducing the cost of electric vehicle ownership. However, ineffective or delayed participation of particular groups of stakeholders could disrupt industry plans and delay the desired outcomes...
March 1, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30812052/stochastic-counterfactual-risk-analysis-for-the-vulnerability-assessment-of-cyber-physical-attacks-on-electricity-distribution-infrastructure-networks
#32
Edward J Oughton, Daniel Ralph, Raghav Pant, Eireann Leverett, Jennifer Copic, Scott Thacker, Rabia Dada, Simon Ruffle, Michelle Tuveson, Jim W Hall
In December 2015, a cyber-physical attack took place on the Ukrainian electricity distribution network. This is regarded as one of the first cyber-physical attacks on electricity infrastructure to have led to a substantial power outage and is illustrative of the increasing vulnerability of Critical National Infrastructure to this type of malicious activity. Few data points, coupled with the rapid emergence of cyber phenomena, has held back the development of resilience analytics of cyber-physical attacks, relative to many other threats...
February 27, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30791118/effect-of-providing-the-uncertainty-information-about-a-tornado-occurrence-on-the-weather-recipients-cognition-and-protective-action-probabilistic-hazard-information-versus-deterministic-warnings
#33
Seyed M Miran, Chen Ling, Alan Gerard, Lans Rothfusz
Currently, a binary alarm system is used in the United States to issue deterministic warning polygons in case of tornado events. To enhance the effectiveness of the weather information, a likelihood alarm system, which uses a tool called probabilistic hazard information (PHI), is being developed at National Severe Storms Laboratory to issue probabilistic information about the threat. This study aims to investigate the effects of providing the uncertainty information about a tornado occurrence through the PHI's graphical swath on laypeople's concern, fear, and protective action, as compared with providing the warning information with the deterministic polygon...
February 21, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30791114/comments-to-orri-stef%C3%A3-nsson-s-paper-on-the-precautionary-principle
#34
Terje Aven
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
February 21, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30791112/reply
#35
LETTER
H Orri Stefánsson
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
February 21, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30791111/comment-the-precautionary-principle-and-judgment-aggregation
#36
Thomas Boyer-Kassem
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
February 21, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30791108/on-the-limits-of-the-precautionary-principle
#37
H Orri Stefánsson
The precautionary principle (PP) is an influential principle of risk management. It has been widely introduced into environmental legislation, and it plays an important role in most international environmental agreements. Yet, there is little consensus on precisely how to understand and formulate the principle. In this article I prove some impossibility results for two plausible formulations of the PP as a decision-rule. These results illustrate the difficulty in making the PP consistent with the acceptance of any tradeoffs between catastrophic risks and more ordinary goods...
February 21, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31034677/from-the-editors
#38
EDITORIAL
Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
May 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30951616/vicki-bier-a-more-sensible-way-to-view-risk
#39
EDITORIAL
Michael Greenberg, Karen Lowrie
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
April 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30951615/from-the-editors
#40
EDITORIAL
Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie
No abstract text is available yet for this article.
April 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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