Risk Analysis : An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

Navy escorts are considered crucial in countering illegal piracy attacks. In this paper, a novel approach is developed to investigate the effect of navy escorts on piracy incidents by models based on two enhanced Tree-Augmented Naïve (TAN) Bayesian networks. This approach offers a systematic investigation into the various factors that influence pirate activities, and helps to identify changes in piracy attack behaviors when confronted by navy escorts and assess the effectiveness of anti-piracy measures...

This article describes the design and analysis of web-based choice experiments that examine how the demand for earthquake protection in Quebec and British Columbia (BC), Canada, is influenced by the default option and the structure of the insurance plan. Homeowners in both provinces were given the opportunity to purchase protection against earthquake losses when presented with one of the following options: the current private insurance plan and proposed public-private Risk Pools with different levels of the public layer...

Geographically large climatic hazard events are occurring more frequently, and with this increase, more research emphasis is being placed on their impact. However, a metrology for selecting which communities to survey following an event is not frequently discussed and as a result does not effectively incorporate all relevant disciplines in disaster research. This article provides a method for selecting communities for inclusion in field studies not only based on anticipated damage but also community-level social factors that show predictive power in long-term analyses...

For many years, the economic literature has recognized the role of attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions in estimating the value of a statistical life (VSL). However, few applications have attempted to include them. This article incorporates the perceived controllability and concern about traffic and cardiorespiratory risks to estimate VSL using a hybrid choice model (HCM). The HCM allows us to include unobserved heterogeneity and improve behavioral realism explicitly. Using data from a choice experiment conducted in Santiago, Chile, we estimate a VSL of US$3...

The world is currently experiencing the environmental challenge of global warming, necessitating careful planning of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions to deal with this problem. This study examines the environmental challenge posed by CO2 emissions from both a long and short-term perspective. In the long term, despite efforts made by countries, our change-point detection analysis shows that there has been no structural change in CO2 emissions since 1950. Without significant efforts, the carbon budget corresponding to the Paris Agreement's target will be exhausted by 2046...

Although waste-to-energy (WtE) incineration projects have boosted the economic effectiveness of the waste management system, locals frequently view them with suspicion, opposition, or even outright rejection because of potential environmental and health risks. In this study, by incorporating two additional variables, namely, objective knowledge and benefit perceptions, the planned risk information seeking model (PRISM) was extended in the context of the WtE incineration project. A total of 1726 respondents were interviewed in person...

Although they comprise a relatively small subset of all traffic deaths, hit-and-run (HR) fatalities are both contemptible and preventable. We analyze longitudinal data from 1982 to 2008 to examine the effects of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) laws on HR traffic fatalities. Our results suggest that lower BAC limits may have an unintended consequence of increasing HR fatalities, whereas a similar effect is absent for non-HR fatalities. Specifically, we find that the adoption of a 0.08 BAC limit is associated to an 8...

Individual's risk perception regarding specific hazards is a dynamic process that evolves over time. This study analyzed the relationship between the number of COVID-19 cases and the South Korean public's risk perceptions from the outset of the pandemic to the recent past. More than 70 repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted biweekly to measure individuals' risk perception. An autoregressive integrated moving average with explanatory variable time series analysis was used to characterize the relationship between the number of COVID-19 cases and level of risk perceptions...

Biological invasions are a growing threat to biodiversity, food security, and economies. Rising pressure from increased global trade requires improving border inspection efficiency. Here, we depart from the conventional consignment-by-consignment approach advocated in current inspection standards. Instead, we suggest a broader perspective: evaluating border inspection regimes based on their ability to reduce propagule pressure across entire pathways. Additionally, we demonstrate that most biosecurity pathways exhibit superspreading behavior, that is, consignments from the same pathway have varying infestation rates and contain rare right-tail events (also called overdispersion)...

Recent research documents that exposure to air pollution can trigger various behavioral reactions. This article presents novel empirical evidence on the causal effect of pollution risk on life insurance decisions. We create a unique dataset by linking microgeographic air quality information to the confidential UK Wealth and Assets Survey. We identify an inverse N-shape relationship between pollution risk and life insurance adoption by exploiting the orthogonal variations in meteorological conditions. Over a given range above a threshold of exposure, rising pollution is associated with rising demand for life insurance, whereas at lower than the threshold levels of pollution, higher exposure risk reduces demand for insurance...

Extreme heat poses severe health threats, as the increased numbers of hospitalizations and fatalities during heat waves show, though little is known about adaptive behavior toward heat. We conducted a household survey on individual perceptions of heat stress and individual heat protection in the summer and autumn of 2019. In total, 1417 people from three medium-sized German cities participated via telephone or online. Based on the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM), which we adapted to heat stress, we analyzed links between risk perception, environmental and demographic factors, perceptions of stakeholders, different heat warning messages, as well as actual and intended adaptive behavior...

Radiation and radioactive substances result in the production of radioactive wastes which require safe management and disposal to avoid risks to human health and the environment. To ensure permanent safe disposal, the performance of a deep geological repository for radioactive waste is assessed against internationally agreed risk-based standards. Assessing postclosure safety of the future system's evolution includes screening of features, events, and processes (FEPs) relevant to the situation, their subsequent development into scenarios, and finally the development and execution of safety assessment (SA) models...

Board directing is a continuous process of risk analysis and control in response to the duality of risk as threat and opportunity. Judgments are made and remade to simultaneously reduce the potential for damaging threats (e.g., fraud, reputation damage), while exploiting opportunities (e.g., new product development, mergers and acquisitions). Adopting an institutional logics approach, we explore this process of risk analysis and control through the varied subject identities (e.g., directorial roles), risk management practices (the procedures and tools used to identify, assess, and control risk), and risk objects (the product of risk identification, assessment, and control, e...

We examined the perspectives of the Red River Métis citizens in Manitoba, Canada, during the H1N1 and COVID-19 pandemics and how they interpreted the communication of government/health authorities' risk management decisions. For Indigenous populations, pandemic response strategies play out within the context of ongoing colonial relationships with government institutions characterized by significant distrust. A crucial difference between the two pandemics was that the Métis in Manitoba were prioritized for early vaccine access during H1N1 but not for COVID-19...

Autonomous and intelligent systems (AIS) are being developed and deployed across a wide range of sectors and encompass a variety of technologies designed to engage in different forms of independent reasoning and self-directed behavior. These technologies may bring considerable benefits to society but also pose a range of risk management challenges, particularly when deployed in safety-critical sectors where complex interactions between human, social, and technical processes underpin safety and resilience. Healthcare is one safety-critical sector at the forefront of efforts to develop and deploy intelligent technologies, such as through artificial intelligence (AI) systems intended to automate key aspects of healthcare tasks such as reading medical images to identify signs of pathology...

Recent history has shown both the benefits and risks of information sharing among firms. Information is shared to facilitate mutual business objectives. However, information sharing can also introduce security-related concerns that could expose the firm to a breach of privacy, with significant economic, reputational, and safety implications. It is imperative for organizations to leverage available information to evaluate security related to information sharing when evaluating current and potential information-sharing partnerships...

This study analyzes the mechanisms through which risk messages about climate change lead to people's risk information-sharing intention, and how digital media platform type serves as a context that moderates those mechanisms. Our analysis is informed by the influence of presumed influence (IPI) model, and we adapt and expand that model in three ways. First, we apply the concept of perceived media reach to the context of digital media platforms, specifically news aggregators and social networking sites. Second, we integrate the two mediators of risk perception and presumed influence...

Working with data about homicide victims and perpetrators from 50 of America's largest cities, we investigate the explanatory power of some familiar explanations for why murder in those cities rose sharply in 2020. The analysis reveals that the distribution of risk by race was essentially the same in 2020 as in 2019. That empirical finding challenges some theories of how racial tensions after the death of George Floyd may have driven homicide increases. Similarly, homicide growth was not concentrated in those cities with the greatest availability in 2020 of new and older guns, or among the cities that suffered the most from the COVID-19 pandemic...

In November 2022, the global human population reached 8 billion and is projected to reach 10 billion by 2060. Theories, models, and evidence indicate that global population growth (GPG) increases the likelihood of many adverse outcomes, such as biodiversity loss, climate change, mass migrations, wars, and resource shortages. A small body of research indicates that many individuals are concerned about the effects of GPG, and these concerns are strongly related to the willingness to engage in mitigative and preventative actions...

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to improve life and reduce risks by providing large amounts of information embedded in big databases and by suggesting or implementing automated decisions under uncertainties. Yet, in the design of a prescriptive AI algorithm, some problems may occur, first and clearly, if the AI information is wrong or incomplete. But the main point of this article is that under uncertainties, the decision algorithm, rational or not, includes, in one way or another, a risk attitude in addition to deterministic preferences...