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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

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https://read.qxmd.com/read/31108566/the-value-of-a-statistical-life-for-risk-averse-and-risk-seeking-individuals
#1
Marcela V Parada-Contzen
This article estimates the value of a statistical life (VSL) for Chile under the hedonic wage method while accounting for individual risk preferences. Two alternative measures of risk aversion are used. First, risk aversion is directly measured using survey measures of preferences over hypothetical gambles, and second, over observed individual behaviors that may proxy for risk preferences, such as smoking status, are used. I reconcile the results with a theoretical model of economic behavior that predicts how the wage-risk tradeoff changes as risk aversion differs across individuals...
May 20, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31100198/rethinking-resilience-analytics
#2
Daniel Eisenberg, Thomas Seager, David L Alderson
The concept of "resilience analytics" has recently been proposed as a means to leverage the promise of big data to improve the resilience of interdependent critical infrastructure systems and the communities supported by them. Given recent advances in machine learning and other data-driven analytic techniques, as well as the prevalence of high-profile natural and man-made disasters, the temptation to pursue resilience analytics without question is almost overwhelming. Indeed, we find big data analytics capable to support resilience to rare, situational surprises captured in analytic models...
May 17, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31070803/do-interactions-between-environmental-chemicals-and-the-human-microbiome-need-to-be-considered-in-risk-assessments
#3
Joseph Rodricks, Yvonne Huang, Ellen Mantus, Pamela Shubat
One of the most dynamic and fruitful areas of current health-related research concerns the various roles of the human microbiome in disease. Evidence is accumulating that interactions between substances in the environment and the microbiome can affect risks of disease, in both beneficial and adverse ways. Although most of the research has concerned the roles of diet and certain pharmaceutical agents, there is increasing interest in the possible roles of environmental chemicals. Chemical risk assessment has, to date, not included consideration of the influence of the microbiome...
May 9, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31059157/risk-informed-requirements-for-design-and-assessment-of-structures-under-temporary-use
#4
Ramon Hingorani, Peter Tanner
The relatively high failure rates, with important consequences in many cases, suggest that the implicitly acceptable risk levels corresponding to temporary civil engineering structures and activities might exceed the bounds of normally acceptable levels associated with different societal activities. Among other reasons, this may be attributed to the lack of a rational approach for the assessment of risks associated with the different technologies supporting these activities in general, and for structures in particular...
May 6, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31046144/trust-and-risk-perception-a-critical-review-of-the-literature
#5
Michael Siegrist
Many studies in the field of risk perception and acceptance of hazards include trust as an explanatory variable. Despite this, the importance of trust has often been questioned. The relevant issue is not only whether trust is crucial but also the form of trust that people rely on in a given situation. In this review, I discuss various trust models and the relationship between trust and affect heuristics. I conclude that the importance of trust varies by hazard and respondent group. Most of the studies use surveys that provide limited information about causality...
May 2, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31046141/a-review-of-recent-advances-in-benchmark-dose-methodology
#6
Signe M Jensen, Felix M Kluxen, Christian Ritz
In this review, recent methodological developments for the benchmark dose (BMD) methodology are summarized. Specifically, we introduce the advances for the main steps in BMD derivation: selecting the procedure for defining a BMD from a predefined benchmark response (BMR), setting a BMR, selecting a dose-response model, and estimating the corresponding BMD lower limit (BMDL). Although the last decade has shown major progress in the development of BMD methodology, there is still room for improvement. Remaining challenges are the implementation of new statistical methods in user-friendly software and the lack of consensus about how to derive the BMDL...
May 2, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31039296/understanding-community-resilience-from-a-pra-perspective-using-binary-decision-diagrams
#7
Saeed Nozhati, Bruce R Ellingwood, Hussam Mahmoud
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a useful tool to assess complex interconnected systems. This article leverages the capabilities of PRA tools developed for industrial and nuclear risk analysis in community resilience evaluations by modeling the food security of a community in terms of its built environment as an integrated system. To this end, we model the performance of Gilroy, CA, a moderate-size town, with regard to disruptions in its food supply caused by a severe earthquake. The food retailers of Gilroy, along with the electrical power network, water network elements, and bridges are considered as components of a system...
April 30, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31039286/network-reconfiguration-for-increasing-transportation-system-resilience-under-extreme-events
#8
Xiaoge Zhang, Sankaran Mahadevan, Kai Goebel
Evacuating residents out of affected areas is an important strategy for mitigating the impact of natural disasters. However, the resulting abrupt increase in the travel demand during evacuation causes severe congestions across the transportation system, which thereby interrupts other commuters' regular activities. In this article, a bilevel mathematical optimization model is formulated to address this issue, and our research objective is to maximize the transportation system resilience and restore its performance through two network reconfiguration schemes: contraflow (also referred to as lane reversal) and crossing elimination at intersections...
April 30, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31039285/interventions-targeting-deep-tissue-lymph-nodes-may-not-effectively-reduce-the-risk-of-salmonellosis-from-ground-pork-consumption-a-quantitative-microbial-risk-assessment
#9
Yangjunna Zhang, Annette M O'Connor, Chong Wang, James S Dickson, H Scott Hurd, Bing Wang
The inclusion of deep tissue lymph nodes (DTLNs) or nonvisceral lymph nodes contaminated with Salmonella in wholesale fresh ground pork (WFGP) production may pose risks to public health. To assess the relative contribution of DTLNs to human salmonellosis occurrence associated with ground pork consumption and to investigate potential critical control points in the slaughter-to-table continuum for the control of human salmonellosis in the United States, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was established...
April 30, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31033003/is-allocation-affected-by-the-perception-of-others-irresponsible-behavior-and-by-ambiguity
#10
Zvi Safra, Sinong Ma, Tigran Melkonyan
The article examines how the perception of others' irresponsible behavior and ambiguity regarding probabilities affect allocation among potential beneficiaries. To elicit these views, we conducted a survey where the participants were first asked to make an allocation of a fixed sum of money between a hereditary cancer, where chance plays a central role, and a lifestyle-related cancer, where individual lifestyle decisions are more important. Our estimation results show that a substantial share of the respondents allocate significantly more to the hereditary cancer...
April 29, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31021457/adoption-of-individual-flood-damage-mitigation-measures-in-new-york-city-an-extension-of-protection-motivation-theory
#11
W J Wouter Botzen, Howard Kunreuther, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Hans de Moel
This study offers insights into factors of influence on the implementation of flood damage mitigation measures by more than 1,000 homeowners who live in flood-prone areas in New York City. Our theoretical basis for explaining flood preparedness decisions is protection motivation theory, which we extend using a variety of other variables that can have an important influence on individual decision making under risk, such as risk attitudes, time preferences, social norms, trust, and local flood risk management policies...
April 25, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31009105/shannon-entropy-for-quantifying-uncertainty-and-risk-in-economic-disparity
#12
Saurabh Mishra, Bilal M Ayyub
The rise in economic disparity presents significant risks to global social order and the resilience of local communities. However, existing measurement science for economic disparity (e.g., the Gini coefficient) does not explicitly consider a probability distribution with information, deficiencies, and uncertainties associated with the underlying income distribution. This article introduces the quantification of Shannon entropy for income inequality across scales, including national-, subnational-, and city-level data...
April 22, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30980426/potential-airborne-asbestos-exposure-and-risk-associated-with-the-historical-use-of-cosmetic-talcum-powder-products
#13
Amanda M Burns, Christy A Barlow, Amber M Banducci, Kenneth M Unice, Jennifer Sahmel
Over time, concerns have been raised regarding the potential for human exposure and risk from asbestos in cosmetic-talc-containing consumer products. In 1985, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) conducted a risk assessment evaluating the potential inhalation asbestos exposure associated with the cosmetic talc consumer use scenario of powdering an infant during diapering, and found that risks were below levels associated with background asbestos exposures and risk. However, given the scope and age of the FDA's assessment, it was unknown whether the agency's conclusions remained relevant to current risk assessment practices, talc application scenarios, and exposure data...
April 12, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30970166/cultural-theory-s-contributions-to-risk-analysis-a-thematic-review-with-directions-and-resources-for-further-research
#14
Branden B Johnson, Brendon Swedlow
Cultural theory (CT) developed from grid/group analysis, which posits that different patterns of social relations-hierarchist, individualist, egalitarian, and fatalist-produce compatible cultural biases influencing assessment of which hazards pose high or low risk and how to manage them. Introduced to risk analysis (RA) in 1982 by Douglas and Wildavsky's Risk and Culture, this institutional approach to social construction of risk surprised a field hitherto focused on psychological influences on risk perceptions and behavior...
April 10, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30970163/causation-analysis-of-risk-coupling-of-gas-explosion-accident-in-chinese-underground-coal-mines
#15
Jinjia Zhang, Kaili Xu, Greg You, Beibei Wang, Lei Zhao
The coal mine production industry is a complex sociotechnical system with interactive relationships among several risk factors. Currently, causation analysis of gas explosion accidents is mainly focused on the aspects of human error and equipment fault, while neglecting the interactive relationships among risk factors. A new method is proposed through risk coupling. First, the meaning of risk coupling of a gas explosion is defined, and types of risk coupling are classified. Next, the coupled relationship and coupled effects among risk factors are explored through combining the interpretative structural modeling (ISM) and the NK model...
April 10, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30925211/a-multicompartment-sis-stochastic-model-with-zonal-ventilation-for-the-spread-of-nosocomial-infections-detection-outbreak-management-and-infection-control
#16
Martín López-García, Marco-Felipe King, Catherine J Noakes
In this work, we study the environmental and operational factors that influence airborne transmission of nosocomial infections. We link a deterministic zonal ventilation model for the airborne distribution of infectious material in a hospital ward, with a Markovian multicompartment SIS model for the infection of individuals within this ward, in order to conduct a parametric study on ventilation rates and their effect on the epidemic dynamics. Our stochastic model includes arrival and discharge of patients, as well as the detection of the outbreak by screening events or due to symptoms being shown by infective patients...
March 29, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30925210/peak-exposures-in-epidemiologic-studies-and-cancer-risks-considerations-for-regulatory-risk-assessment
#17
Harvey Checkoway, Peter S J Lees, Linda D Dell, P Robinan Gentry, Kenneth A Mundt
We review approaches for characterizing "peak" exposures in epidemiologic studies and methods for incorporating peak exposure metrics in dose-response assessments that contribute to risk assessment. The focus was on potential etiologic relations between environmental chemical exposures and cancer risks. We searched the epidemiologic literature on environmental chemicals classified as carcinogens in which cancer risks were described in relation to "peak" exposures. These articles were evaluated to identify some of the challenges associated with defining and describing cancer risks in relation to peak exposures...
March 29, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30925207/risk-and-the-five-hard-problems-of-cybersecurity
#18
Natalie M Scala, Allison C Reilly, Paul L Goethals, Michel Cukier
This perspectives article addresses risk in cyber defense and identifies opportunities to incorporate risk analysis principles into the cybersecurity field. The Science of Security (SoS) initiative at the National Security Agency seeks to further and promote interdisciplinary research in cybersecurity. SoS organizes its research into the Five Hard Problems (5HP): (1) scalability and composability; (2) policy-governed secure collaboration; (3) security-metrics-driven evaluation, design, development, and deployment; (4) resilient architectures; and (5) understanding and accounting for human behavior...
March 29, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30925206/residents-reactions-to-earthquake-early-warnings-in-japan
#19
Kazuya Nakayachi, Julia S Becker, Sally H Potter, Maximilian Dixon
This article empirically examines the effectiveness of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Japan based on experiences of residents who received warnings before earthquake shaking occurred. In Study 1, a survey (N = 299) was conducted to investigate residents' experiences of, and reactions to, an EEW issued in Gunma and neighboring regions on June 17, 2018. The main results were as follows. (1) People's primary reactions to the EEW were mental, not physical, and thus motionless. Most residents stayed still, not for safety reasons, but because they were focusing on mentally bracing themselves...
March 29, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/30925203/managing-safety-related-disruptions-evidence-from-the-u-s-nuclear-power-industry
#20
Christian C Blanco, Felipe Caro, Charles J Corbett
Low-probability, high-impact events are difficult to manage. Firms may underinvest in risk assessments for low-probability, high-impact events because it is not easy to link the direct and indirect benefits of doing so. Scholarly research on the effectiveness of programs aimed at reducing such events faces the same challenge. In this article, we draw on comprehensive industry-wide data from the U.S. nuclear power industry to explore the impact of conducting probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) on preventing safety-related disruptions...
March 29, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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