Risk Analysis : An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

Electric arc furnace (EAF) slag is a coproduct of steel production used primarily for construction purposes. Some applications of EAF slag result in residential exposures by incidental ingestion and inhalation of airborne dust. To evaluate potential health risks, an EAF slag characterization program was conducted to measure concentrations of metals and leaching potential (including oral bioaccessibility) in 38 EAF slag samples. Arsenic, hexavalent chromium, iron, vanadium, and manganese (Mn) were identified as constituents of interest (COIs)...

Climate change presents challenges to policy and economic stability, necessitating effective trading strategies to reduce environmental risks. This article addresses gaps in existing studies by using a Markov-switching model to consider climate risk. Backward stochastic differential equations are used to optimize utility with three hedging strategies based on the concept of risk aversion. Numerical scenarios confirm the model's superiority in incorporating exogenous events, with our risk-averse strategy outperforming classical approaches...

Hemodialysis is an important part of nosocomial infection prevention and control (IPC). This study aimed to identify the key potential risk areas and failure modes in hemodialysis rooms in hospitals and put forward a series of improvement measures to prevent and control the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Hemodialysis patients are highly susceptible to COVID-19 and usually have a high incidence of severe illness and mortality after infection with COVID-19. Therefore, IPC in hemodialysis patients is of crucial strategic significance...

Numerous fire accidents have occurred in Japan owing to food overheating when cooking on gas stoves because users left the cooking area unattended. In response, authorities enacted a legal revision mandating temperature sensor installation on gas stove burners. Nevertheless, the actual effectiveness of this measure remains uncertain. Furthermore, prior studies have raised concerns about the efficacy of specific safety standards for consumer products owing to insufficient evidence of reduction in accidents. Consequently, this study seeks to assess the impact of the standards revision implemented in 2008, requiring the placement of safety devices on all gas stove burners...

The incidence of human illness due to Salmonella Infantis reported to Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network and the prevalence of Infantis on chicken carcasses reported by the United States Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service have increased significantly in the past decade. However, the trends do not appear coincident, as would be expected if the increased prevalence in chicken led to the increase in the incidence of human illness. Salmonella Infantis incidence and prevalence trends are analyzed using penalized B-spline methods for generalized additive regression models...

Communities face the challenge of finding restoration strategies in the aftermath of disasters. In particular, independent and self-interested utility managers devise such strategies for infrastructure through a heuristic decentralized process. This paper takes a game-theoretic approach to model the decentralized and strategic restoration decision making with application to interdependent infrastructure. Particularly, we model the decision process using simultaneous games to investigate decision makers' conflicting preferences...

Artificial intelligence (AI) has seen numerous applications for risk analysis and provides ample opportunities for developing new and improved methods and models for this purpose. In the present article, we conceptualize the use of AI for risk analysis by framing it as an input-algorithm-output process and linking such a setup to three tasks in establishing a risk description: consequence characterization, uncertainty characterization, and knowledge management. We then give an overview of currently used concepts and methods for AI-based risk analysis and outline potential future uses by extrapolating beyond currently produced types of output...

The policy actions of countries reflect adaptive responses of local components within the system to the dynamic global risk landscape. These responses can generate interactions and synergy effects on alleviating the evolution of global risks. Adopting a network perspective, the study proposes a theoretical framework that connects three structural characteristics of policy synergy, namely, synergy scale, alignment intensity, and timing synchronization. Focusing on the Covid-19 pandemic as a typical global risk context, the study finds that policy synergy with a larger scale, stronger alignment intensity, and more synchronized timing has a positive impact on mitigating global risks...

The Risk Analysis Quality Test Release 1.0 (RAQT1.0) was developed as a framework to encourage mutual understanding between technical risk analysts and risk management decision makers of risk assessment quality indicators. The initial version (release 1.0) was published by the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) in 2020 with the intent of learning from early test applications whether the approach was useful and whether changes in approach or contents would be helpful. The results of applications across three diverse fields are reported here...

The unprecedented exposure of radiofrequency electromagnetic field (RF-EMF) to humans from mobile communications raises serious public concern about the possibility of unexpected adverse health effects and has stimulated authorities to adopt precautionary exposure limits. These limits are distinctly different across countries, and the causes of these differences are unclear from the literature. This article is the first empirical analysis on the determinants of RF-EMF exposure legislation, using a novel cross-sectional database of 164 countries worldwide...

Vulnerability to heat waves and their negative effects on health vary not only due to individual factors but also due to situational factors, such as time and geography. Hence, we explored seasonal variations and predictors of heat wave feelings of threat across different heat wave geographical susceptibility locations in Portugal. A total of 238 Portuguese residents responded to a web-based longitudinal survey: before the summer, during a heat wave in the summer, during the summer, and after the summer. Geographical location was used as an indicator of risk exposure, operationalized as heat wave occurrence susceptibility (low, moderate, high)...

The Wells-Riley model has been widely used to estimate airborne infection risk, typically from a deterministic point of view (i.e., focusing on the average number of infections) or in terms of a per capita probability of infection. Some of its main limitations relate to considering well-mixed air, steady-state concentration of pathogen in the air, a particular amount of time for the indoor interaction, and that all individuals are homogeneous and behave equally. Here, we revisit the Wells-Riley model, providing a mathematical formalism for its stochastic version, where the number of infected individuals follows a Binomial distribution...

A major global catastrophe would likely disrupt trade in liquid fuels. Countries dependent on imported oil products might struggle to sustain industrial agriculture. Island nations importing 100% of refined fuels are particularly vulnerable. Our case study aimed to estimate the agricultural land area and biofuel volumes needed to feed the population of New Zealand in the absence of trade. Results showed that stored diesel would quickly be exhausted with ordinary use (weeks) and even with strict rationing (months)...

Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a part of the mainstream public discourse beyond expert communities about its risks, benefits, and need for regulation. In particular, since 2014, the news media have intensified their coverage of this emerging technology and its potential impact on most domains of society. Although many studies have analyzed traditional media coverage of AI, analyses of social media, especially video-sharing platforms, are rare. In addition, research from a risk communication perspective remains scarce, despite the widely recognized potential threats to society from many AI applications...

Three decades ago, several articles on the subjectivity in chemical risk judgments (i.e., labeled "intuitive toxicology") measured the divide between the public and toxicologists with different backgrounds regarding the validity of predicting health effects based on in vivo studies. Similar divides with impacts on societal discourse and chemical risk assessment practices might exist concerning alternative toxicity testing methods (i.e., in vitro and in silico). However, studies to date have focused either on the public's views of in vivo or stem cell testing or on experts' views of in vivo testing and potential alternatives (i...

The origin of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is contentious. Most studies have focused on a zoonotic origin, but definitive evidence such as an intermediary animal host is lacking. We used an established risk analysis tool for differentiating natural and unnatural epidemics, the modified Grunow-Finke assessment tool (mGFT) to study the origin of SARS-COV-2. The mGFT scores 11 criteria to provide a likelihood of natural or unnatural origin. Using published literature and publicly available sources of information, we applied the mGFT to the origin of SARS-CoV-2...

Prevention behaviors are important in mitigating the transmission of COVID-19. The protection motivation theory (PMT) links perceptions of risk and coping ability with the act of adopting prevention behaviors. The goal of this research is to test the application of the PMT in predicting adoption of prevention behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. Two research objectives are achieved to explore motivating factors for adopting prevention behaviors. (1) The first objective is to identify variables that are strong predictors of prevention behavior adoption...

Climate change risk assessment studies focus on identifying and analyzing different risks considering several climate change scenarios and on evaluating the cost-effectiveness of different adaptation measures. However, risk acceptability is often not reflected on in the context of climate change risk studies. Noting that the different climate change scenarios depict drastically contrasting images of the future in terms of population growth, economic development, and changes to life expectancy, this article uses risk acceptance criteria that are based on socioeconomic considerations to highlight the need for nonuniform risk acceptability across climate change scenarios...

Catastrophe bonds (cat bond in short) are an alternative risk-transfer instrument used to transfer peril-specific financial risk from governments, financial institutions, or (re)insurers, to the capital market. Current approaches for cat bond pricing are calibrated on seismic mainshocks, and thus do not account for potential effects induced by earthquake sequences. This simplifying assumption implies that damage arises from mainshocks only, while aftershocks yield no damage. Postearthquake field surveys reveal that this assumption is inaccurate...

This study examines the inconsistent theories surrounding the roles of perceived threat and efficacy in risk communication theories, focusing on behavioral changes during a public health crisis. Utilizing a two-wave panel survey, the research found a nuanced interaction between efficacy beliefs and risk perceptions in dictating individuals' engagement in protective or defensive behaviors. Notably, those with high risk perceptions but lower efficacy beliefs were more likely to engage in future protective behaviors, contradicting previous assumptions about the avoidance group's propensity for defensive reactions...