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Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis

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https://read.qxmd.com/read/31404471/radon-as-a-tracer-of-lung-changes-induced-by-smoking
#1
Radoslav Böhm, Antonín Sedlák, Martin Bulko, Karol Holý
After smoking, exposure to radon and its progeny is the second leading cause of lung cancer. The probability of inducing lung carcinomas by inhaled radon progeny depends on the deposited radiation dose, and is significantly affected by physiological and morphometric changes induced by smoking. Due to irritation of the airways, the inhalation of cigarette smoke leads to the hyperproduction of mucus. Two concurrent processes occur: on one hand, increased production of mucus protects the target cells against radiation damage; on the other hand, in the case of long-term smokers, a chronic lung obstruction develops, causing an increase in the radiation dose to the lungs...
August 12, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31379003/the-coming-of-age-of-risk-governance
#2
Andreas Klinke, Ortwin Renn
Proposed as an advanced conceptualization of how to handle risk, risk governance begins with the critique and expansion of the traditional idea and standard practices of risk analysis. In developments over the last two decades, proponents of a more integrative approach on governing risks have moved further away from distinct conceptions of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication and toward the processes and institutions that guide, restrain, and integrate collective activities of handling risk...
August 5, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31369172/efficacy-foundations-for-risk-communication-how-people-think-about-reducing-the-risks-of-climate-change
#3
Katherine M Crosman, Ann Bostrom, Adam L Hayes
Believing action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self-efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts, according to current risk communication theory. Although the public recognizes the dangers of climate change, and is deluged with lists of possible mitigative actions, little is known about public efficacy beliefs in the context of climate change. Prior efficacy studies rely on conflicting constructs and measures of efficacy, and links between efficacy and risk management actions are muddled...
August 1, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31361043/loss-gain-framing-dose-and-reactance-a-message-experiment
#4
Chelsea L Ratcliff, Jakob D Jensen, Courtney L Scherr, Melinda Krakow, Kaylee Crossley
Whether a loss or gain frame has a persuasive advantage in communicating health risks is a matter of ongoing debate. Findings reported in the literature are mixed, suggesting that framing effects are likely complex and may be influenced by a combination of factors. This study examined reactance as a mediator and dose as a moderator of loss/gain framing effects. Adults (N = 1,039) read framed messages about the health consequences of physical (in)activity in varying message doses (i.e., number of framed statements)...
July 30, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31361041/adversarial-risk-analysis-to-allocate-optimal-defense-resources-for-protecting-cyber-physical-systems-from-cyber-attacks
#5
Wei Wang, Francesco Di Maio, Enrico Zio
Defenders have to enforce defense strategies by taking decisions on allocation of resources to protect the integrity and survivability of cyber-physical systems (CPSs) from intentional and malicious cyber attacks. In this work, we propose an adversarial risk analysis approach to provide a novel one-sided prescriptive support strategy for the defender to optimize the defensive resource allocation, based on a subjective expected utility model, in which the decisions of the adversaries are uncertain. This increases confidence in cyber security through robustness of CPS protection actions against uncertain malicious threats compared with prescriptions provided by a classical defend-attack game-theoretical approach...
July 30, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31339584/americans-views-of-voluntary-protective-actions-against-zika-infection-conceptual-and-measurement-issues
#6
Branden B Johnson
Understanding factors affecting decisions by people to protect themselves, or not, is critical to designing supportive communications. Here, threat, protective-action, and stakeholder perceptions were evaluated for effects on mainland Americans' behavioral intentions regarding Zika in April 2017, as postulated by the Protective Action Decision Model. Although all three perception types (including a novel resource sufficiency measure) affected intentions, these relationships varied widely depending upon the method used to measure adoption of actions (e...
July 24, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31329321/four-decades-of-transformation-in-decision-analytic-practice-for-societal-risk-management
#7
Timothy McDaniels
The formal mathematical structure for decision making under uncertainty was first expressed in Savage's axioms over 60 years ago. But while the underlying normative concepts for decision making under uncertainty remain constant, the practice of applying these concepts in real-world settings, as conducted by decision analysis (DA) specialists working with agencies and interested parties, has seen a major transformation in recent decades. The purpose of this article is to provide perspectives that characterize and interpret how DA practice for societal risk management questions has grown and is being transformed over the last 40 years...
July 22, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31318487/a-fuzzy-based-risk-assessment-framework-for-autonomous-underwater-vehicle-under-ice-missions
#8
Tzu Yang Loh, Mario P Brito, Neil Bose, Jingjing Xu, Kiril Tenekedjiev
The use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for various scientific, commercial, and military applications has become more common with maturing technology and improved accessibility. One relatively new development lies in the use of AUVs for under-ice marine science research in the Antarctic. The extreme environment, ice cover, and inaccessibility as compared to open-water missions can result in a higher risk of loss. Therefore, having an effective assessment of risks before undertaking any Antarctic under-ice missions is crucial to ensure an AUV's survival...
July 18, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31318475/a-probabilistic-model-of-the-economic-risk-to-britain-s-railway-network-from-bridge-scour-during-floods
#9
Rob Lamb, Paige Garside, Raghav Pant, Jim W Hall
Scour (localized erosion by water) is an important risk to bridges, and hence many infrastructure networks, around the world. In Britain, scour has caused the failure of railway bridges crossing rivers in more than 50 flood events. These events have been investigated in detail, providing a data set with which we develop and test a model to quantify scour risk. The risk analysis is formulated in terms of a generic, transferrable infrastructure network risk model. For some bridge failures, the severity of the causative flood was recorded or can be reconstructed...
July 18, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31318469/critical-time-space-and-decision-making-agent-considerations-in-human-centered-interdisciplinary-hurricane-related-research
#10
Pamela Murray-Tuite, Y Gurt Ge, Christopher Zobel, Roshanak Nateghi, Haizhong Wang
In hazard and disaster contexts, human-centered approaches are promising for interdisciplinary research since humans and communities feature prominently in many definitions of disaster and the built environment is designed and constructed by humans to serve their needs. With a human-centered approach, the decision-making agent becomes a critical consideration. This article discusses and illustrates the need for alignment of decision-making agents, time, and space for interdisciplinary research on hurricanes, particularly evacuation and the immediate aftermath...
July 18, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31313353/quantitative-risk-assessment-of-seafarers-nonfatal-injuries-due-to-occupational-accidents-based-on-bayesian-network-modeling
#11
Guizhen Zhang, Vinh V Thai, Adrian Wing-Keung Law, Kum Fai Yuen, Hui Shan Loh, Qingji Zhou
Reducing the incidence of seafarers' workplace injuries is of great importance to shipping and ship management companies. The objective of this study is to identify the important influencing factors and to build a quantitative model for the injury risk analysis aboard ships, so as to provide a decision support framework for effective injury prevention and management. Most of the previous research on seafarers' occupational accidents either adopts a qualitative approach or applies simple descriptive statistics for analyses...
July 17, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31294485/mediating-and-moderating-roles-of-trust-in-government-in-effective-risk-rumor-management-a-test-case-of-radiation-contaminated-seafood-in-south-korea
#12
Hye-Jin Paek, Thomas Hove
This study has two aims: to identify effective strategies for managing false rumors about risks and to investigate the roles that basic and situational trust in government play in that process. Online experiment data were collected nationwide from 915 adults in South Korea. They were exposed to a false rumor about radiation-contaminated seafood and were randomly assigned to one of three rumor response conditions (refutation, denial, attack the attacker). One-way ANOVA indicated that the refutation response yielded the highest level of situational trust in government response (TGR)...
July 11, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31291492/comparative-analysis-of-deterministic-and-semiquantitative-approaches-for-shallow-landslide-risk-modeling-in-rwanda
#13
Jean Baptiste Nsengiyumva, Geping Luo, Egide Hakorimana, Richard Mind'je, Aboubakar Gasirabo, Valentine Mukanyandwi
The use of appropriate approaches to produce risk maps is critical in landslide disaster management. The aim of this study was to investigate and compare the stability index mapping (SINMAP) and the spatial multicriteria evaluation (SMCE) models for landslide risk modeling in Rwanda. The SINMAP used the digital elevation model in conjunction with physical soil parameters to determine the factor of safety. The SMCE method used six layers of landslide conditioning factors. In total, 155 past landslide locations were used for training and model validation...
July 10, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31291487/probability-of-low-altitude-midair-collision-between-general-aviation-and-unmanned-aircraft
#14
Anders la Cour-Harbo, Henrik Schiøler
Unmanned aircrafts (UA) usually fly below 500 ft to be segregated from manned aircraft. However, while general aviation (GA) usually do fly above 500 ft in areas where UA are allowed to operate, GA will at times also fly below 500 ft. Consequently, there is a distinct risk of near-miss encounters as well as actual midair collisions (MACs). This work presents a model for determining this risk based on physical parameters of the aircraft and actual figures for the numbers of GA in a given airspace, as well as the probability of having GA below 500 ft...
July 10, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31290192/-chemophobia-today-consumers-knowledge-and-perceptions-of-chemicals
#15
Rita Saleh, Angela Bearth, Michael Siegrist
This mixed-methods study investigated consumers' knowledge of chemicals in terms of basic principles of toxicology and then related this knowledge, in addition to other factors, to their fear of chemical substances (i.e., chemophobia). Both qualitative interviews and a large-scale online survey were conducted in the German-speaking part of Switzerland. A Mokken scale was developed to measure laypeople's toxicological knowledge. The results indicate that most laypeople are unaware of the similarities between natural and synthetic chemicals in terms of certain toxicological principles...
July 9, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31290175/selecting-indicators-for-assessing-community-sustainable-resilience
#16
Leslie Gillespie-Marthaler, Katherine Nelson, Hiba Baroud, Mark Abkowitz
Communities are complex systems subject to a variety of hazards that can result in significant disruption to critical functions. Community resilience assessment is rapidly gaining popularity as a means to help communities better prepare for, respond to, and recover from disruption. Sustainable resilience, a recently developed concept, requires communities to assess system-wide capability to maintain desired performance levels while simultaneously evaluating impacts to resilience due to changes in hazards and vulnerability over extended periods of time...
July 9, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31290166/cross-sectional-psychological-and-demographic-associations-of-zika-knowledge-and-conspiracy-beliefs-before-and-after-local-zika-transmission
#17
Rachael Piltch-Loeb, Brian J Zikmund-Fisher, Victoria A Shaffer, Laura D Scherer, Megan Knaus, Angie Fagerlin, David M Abramson, Aaron M Scherer
Perceptions of infectious diseases are important predictors of whether people engage in disease-specific preventive behaviors. Having accurate beliefs about a given infectious disease has been found to be a necessary condition for engaging in appropriate preventive behaviors during an infectious disease outbreak, while endorsing conspiracy beliefs can inhibit preventive behaviors. Despite their seemingly opposing natures, knowledge and conspiracy beliefs may share some of the same psychological motivations, including a relationship with perceived risk and self-efficacy (i...
July 9, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31287588/optimal-abort-rules-for-multiattempt-missions
#18
Gregory Levitin, Maxim Finkelstein, Hong-Zhong Huang
Many real-world systems use mission aborts to enhance their survivability. Specifically, a mission can be aborted when a certain malfunction condition is met and a risk of a system loss in the case of a mission continuation becomes too high. Usually, the rescue or recovery procedure is initiated upon the mission abort. Previous works have discussed a setting when only one attempt to complete a mission is allowed and this attempt can be aborted. However, missions with a possibility of multiple attempts can occur in different real-world settings when accomplishing a mission is really important and the cost-related and the time-wise restrictions for this are not very severe...
July 9, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31287575/quantifying-community-resilience-using-hierarchical-bayesian-kernel-methods-a-case-study-on-recovery-from-power-outages
#19
Jin-Zhu Yu, Hiba Baroud
The ability to accurately measure recovery rate of infrastructure systems and communities impacted by disasters is vital to ensure effective response and resource allocation before, during, and after a disruption. However, a challenge in quantifying such measures resides in the lack of data as community recovery information is seldom recorded. To provide accurate community recovery measures, a hierarchical Bayesian kernel model (HBKM) is developed to predict the recovery rate of communities experiencing power outages during storms...
July 9, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
https://read.qxmd.com/read/31251825/how-to-integrate-labor-disruption-into-an-economic-impact-evaluation-model-for-postdisaster-recovery-periods
#20
Zhengtao Zhang, Ning Li, Peng Cui, Hong Xu, Yuan Liu, Xi Chen, Jieling Feng
Evaluating the economic impacts caused by capital destruction is an effective method for disaster management and prevention, but the magnitude of the economic impact of labor disruption on an economic system remains unclear. This article emphasizes the importance of considering labor disruption when evaluating the economic impact of natural disasters. Based on the principle of disasters and resilience theory, our model integrates nonlinear recovery of labor losses and the demand of labor from outside the disaster area into the dynamic evaluation of the economic impact in the postdisaster recovery period...
June 28, 2019: Risk Analysis: An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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