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Population Studies

Susannah E Gibbs, Yasamin Kusunoki, Elizabeth Colantuoni, Caroline Moreau
Past studies on the influence of sexual activity on contraceptive behaviours are inconclusive, relying heavily on cross-sectional data. We used a population-based longitudinal sample of young women in Michigan to evaluate weekly associations between sexual activity and contraceptive use at three levels of measurement: comparing between women, among individual women's partnerships, and from week to week within partnerships. We used multinomial logistic regression accounting for correlations within partnerships and women...
February 5, 2019: Population Studies
Catalina Torres, Vladimir Canudas-Romo, Jim Oeppen
During the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, urban populations in Europe and North America continued to be afflicted by very high mortality as rapid urbanization and industrialization processes got underway. Here we measure the effect of population redistribution from (low-mortality) rural to (high-mortality) urban areas on changes in Scottish life expectancy at birth from 1861 to 1910. Using vital registration data for that period, we apply a new decomposition method that decomposes changes in life expectancy into the contributions of two main components: (1) changes in mortality; and (2) compositional changes in the population...
January 31, 2019: Population Studies
Ugofilippo Basellini, Carlo Giovanni Camarda
Age-at-death distributions provide an informative description of the mortality pattern of a population but have generally been neglected for modelling and forecasting mortality. In this paper, we use the distribution of deaths to model and forecast adult mortality. Specifically, we introduce a relational model that relates a fixed 'standard' to a series of observed distributions by a transformation of the age axis. The proposed Segmented Transformation Age-at-death Distributions (STAD) model is parsimonious and efficient: using only three parameters, it captures and disentangles mortality developments in terms of shifting and compression dynamics...
January 29, 2019: Population Studies
Øystein Kravdal, Emily Grundy
This study aimed to assess whether children's age at their parents' divorce is associated with depression in early and mid-adulthood, as indicated by medication purchase. A sibling comparison method was used to control for unobserved factors shared between siblings. The data were extracted from the Norwegian Population Register and Norwegian Prescription Database and included about 181,000 individuals aged 20-44 who had experienced parental divorce and 636,000 who had not. Controlling for age in 2004, sex, and birth order, children who were aged 15-19 when their parents divorced were 12 per cent less likely to purchase antidepressants as adults in 2004-08 than those experiencing the divorce aged 0-4...
January 11, 2019: Population Studies
Ameed Saabneh
This study investigates the effects of displacement on the socio-economic status of second-generation Palestinian internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Israel. The results show that members of this group do not differ from non-displaced Palestinians in their educational or occupational attainment, but that displaced households experience higher rates of poverty and poorer housing conditions than non-displaced households. I find that the relationship between displacement and the prime indicators of social mobility-education and jobs-was weakened by three factors: extreme spatial segregation between Palestinians and Jews, the concentration of disadvantage among Palestinian IDPs within the host communities, which were Palestinian spaces, and a high level of dependence on resources concentrated in Jewish spaces among all Palestinians, not just IDPs...
December 6, 2018: Population Studies
Jan Van Bavel, Martin Klesment, Eva Beaujouan, Zuzanna Brzozowska, Allan Puur, David Reher, Miguel Requena, Glenn Sandström, Tomáš Sobotka, Kryštof Zeman
In Europe and the United States, women's educational attainment started to increase around the middle of the twentieth century. The expected implication was fertility decline and postponement, whereas in fact the opposite occurred. We analyse trends in the quantum of cohort fertility among the baby boom generations in 15 countries and how these relate to women's education. Over the 1901-45 cohorts, the proportion of parents with exactly two children rose steadily and homogeneity in family sizes increased. Progression to a third child and beyond declined in all the countries, continuing the ongoing trends of the fertility transition...
November 2018: Population Studies
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November 2018: Population Studies
Annemarie Ernsten, David McCollum, Zhiqiang Feng, Dawn Everington, Zengyi Huang
Migration is a core component of population change and is both a symptom and a cause of major economic and social phenomena. However, data limitations mean that gaps remain in our understanding of the patterns and processes of mobility. This is particularly the case for internal migration, which remains under-researched, despite being quantitatively much more significant than international migration. Using the Scottish Longitudinal Study, this paper evaluates the potential value of General Practitioner administrative health data from the National Health Service that can be linked into census-based longitudinal studies for advancing migration research...
November 2018: Population Studies
Danielle Gauvreau, Patrick Sabourin, Samuel Vézina, Benoît Laplante
Recent research on the baby boom and its causes has shown that common explanations, such as the recuperation of births following the Great Depression or Second World War, are not sufficient to account for the phenomenon. However, that research has stressed the role of increasing nuptiality. In this paper, we argue that the increase in survivorship of children and young people that resulted from the epidemiologic transition accounted for a large portion of the increased number of births during the baby boom...
November 2018: Population Studies
James Raymer, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
International migration flows are considered the most difficult demographic component to forecast and, for that reason, models for forecasting migration are few and relatively undeveloped. This is worrying because, in developed societies, international migration is often the largest component of population growth and most influential in debates about societal and economic change. In this paper, we address the need for better forecasting models of international migration by testing a hierarchical (bilinear) model within the Bayesian inferential framework, recently developed to forecast age and sex patterns of immigration and emigration in the United Kingdom, on other types of migration flow data: age- and sex-specific time series from Sweden, South Korea, and Australia...
November 2018: Population Studies
Yan Yu
This paper introduces the metric 'mean duration of obesity' to measure the average number of years lived with obesity in a population. A procedure was developed to estimate duration from periodic cross-sectional surveys. For annual cohorts born in the United States between 1925 and 1989, I estimated a logit model to derive age-cohort-specific probabilities of overweight and obesity (body mass index 25 to <30 and [Formula: see text]30, respectively), and applied life table techniques to convert these into person-years...
November 2018: Population Studies
Hill Kulu, Emma Lundholm, Gunnar Malmberg
The aim of this study is to investigate spatial mobility over time. Research on 'new mobilities' suggests increasing movement of individuals, technology, and information. By contrast, studies of internal migration report declining spatial mobility in recent decades. Using longitudinal register data from Sweden, we calculate annual order-specific migration rates to investigate the spatial mobility of young adults over the last three decades. We standardize mobility rates for educational enrolment, educational level, family status, and place of residence to determine how much changes in individuals' life domains explain changes in mobility...
November 2018: Population Studies
Alice Goisis, Daniel C Schneider, Mikko Myrskylä
Existing studies provide contradictory evidence concerning the association between child health and advanced maternal age. A potential explanation for the lack of consensus on this issue is changes over time in the costs and benefits of giving birth at an advanced age. This is the first study to investigate secular changes in the characteristics of older mothers and in the association between advanced maternal age and child health. We use data from four UK cohort studies, covering births from 1958 to 2001, and use low birth weight (LBW) as a marker for child health...
November 2018: Population Studies
Marcus Ebeling, Roland Rau, Annette Baudisch
Rectangularization of the survival curve-a key analytical framework in mortality research-relies on assumptions that have become partially obsolete in high-income countries due to mortality reductions among the oldest old. We propose refining the concept to adjust for recent and potential future mortality changes. Our framework, the 'maximum inner rectangle approach' (MIRA) considers two types of rectangularization. Outer rectangularization captures progress in mean lifespan relative to progress in maximum lifespan...
November 2018: Population Studies
Hill Kulu, Tina Hannemann
This study investigates the formation of endogamous and exogamous marriages among immigrants and their descendants in the United Kingdom. We apply event history analysis to data from the Understanding Society study and use multiple imputation to determine the type of marriage for individuals with missing information on the origin of their spouse. The analysis shows, first, significant differences among immigrants and their descendants in the likelihood of marrying within and outside their ethnic groups. While immigrants from European countries have relatively high exogamous marriage rates, South Asians exhibit a high likelihood of marrying a partner from their own ethnic group; Caribbean people hold an intermediate position...
October 25, 2018: Population Studies
Daniel J Hruschka, Rebecca Sear, Joseph Hackman, Alexandria Drake
A key demographic hypothesis has been that fertility declines rely on stopping at target parities, but emerging evidence suggests that women frequently reduce fertility without specific numeric targets. To assess the relative importance of these two paths to fertility decline, we develop a novel mixture model to estimate: (1) the proportion of women who stop at a target parity; and (2) mean completed fertility among those who do not. Applied to Demographic and Health Survey data from women aged 45-49 in 84 low- and middle-income countries, and to United States Census cohorts, the model shows considerable variation in the proportion stopping at specific parities (1-84 per cent)...
October 24, 2018: Population Studies
Jason M Fletcher
This paper explores gene-environment interactions-interactions between family environments and children's genetic predispositions-in determining educational attainment. The central question is whether poor childhood family environments reduce children's ability to leverage their genetic gifts to achieve high levels of educational attainment-are there important 'bottlenecks' for poor children? The multigenerational information and genetic data contained in the United States' Health and Retirement Study are used to separate two mechanisms for intergenerational transmission of socio-economic status: genetic endowments and family environments...
October 23, 2018: Population Studies
Thomas Spoorenberg
Existing knowledge of Tibetan historical population development is mostly based on 'best-guess' estimates and is heavily politicized. Using census data, I reconstruct the development of Tibetan fertility in China since the 1940s, with the objective of providing an independent assessment that can be used as benchmark for future studies and debates on Tibetan demography. Following major social and economic transformations starting in the 1950s, Tibetan fertility unexpectedly increased from the late 1950s to the late 1960s...
August 17, 2018: Population Studies
Govert E Bijwaard, Per Tynelius, Mikko Myrskylä
Education is negatively associated with most major causes of death. Prior work ignores the premise that cause-specific hazards are interdependent and that both education and mortality depend on cognitive ability. We analyse Swedish men aged 18-63, focusing on months lost due to specific causes-which solves the interdependence problem-and use a structural model that accounts for confounding due to cognitive ability. In a standard Cox model controlling for Intelligence Quotient, improving education is associated with large decreases in mortality for major causes of death...
August 10, 2018: Population Studies
Christian Dudel, Sebastian Klüsener
Comparative perspectives on men's fertility are still rare, in part because vital registration data are often missing paternal age information for a substantial number of births. We compare two imputation approaches that attempt to estimate men's age-specific fertility rates and related measures for data in which paternal age information is missing for a non-negligible number of cases. Taking births with paternal age information as a reference, the first approach uses the unconditional paternal age distribution, while the second approach considers the paternal age distribution conditional on the maternal age...
July 13, 2018: Population Studies
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