JOURNAL ARTICLE
MULTICENTER STUDY
Add like
Add dislike
Add to saved papers

The early prediction of mortality in acute pancreatitis: a large population-based study.

Gut 2008 December
BACKGROUND: Identification of patients at risk for mortality early in the course of acute pancreatitis (AP) is an important step in improving outcome.

METHODS: Using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis, a clinical scoring system was developed for prediction of in-hospital mortality in AP. The scoring system was derived on data collected from 17,992 cases of AP from 212 hospitals in 2000-2001. The new scoring system was validated on data collected from 18,256 AP cases from 177 hospitals in 2004-2005. The accuracy of the scoring system for prediction of mortality was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The performance of the new scoring system was further validated by comparing its predictive accuracy with that of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Examination (APACHE) II.

RESULTS: CART analysis identified five variables for prediction of in-hospital mortality. One point is assigned for the presence of each of the following during the first 24 h: blood urea nitrogen (BUN) >25 mg/dl; impaired mental status; systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS); age >60 years; or the presence of a pleural effusion (BISAP). Mortality ranged from >20% in the highest risk group to <1% in the lowest risk group. In the validation cohort, the BISAP AUC was 0.82 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.84) versus APACHE II AUC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.85).

CONCLUSIONS: A new mortality-based prognostic scoring system for use in AP has been derived and validated. The BISAP is a simple and accurate method for the early identification of patients at increased risk for in-hospital mortality.

Full text links

We have located links that may give you full text access.
Can't access the paper?
Try logging in through your university/institutional subscription. For a smoother one-click institutional access experience, please use our mobile app.

For the best experience, use the Read mobile app

Mobile app image

Get seemless 1-tap access through your institution/university

For the best experience, use the Read mobile app

All material on this website is protected by copyright, Copyright © 1994-2024 by WebMD LLC.
This website also contains material copyrighted by 3rd parties.

By using this service, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy.

Your Privacy Choices Toggle icon

You can now claim free CME credits for this literature searchClaim now

Get seemless 1-tap access through your institution/university

For the best experience, use the Read mobile app